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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. So close, but phases too late. Even with the south trend yesterday, the phase hasn't worked out for us on really any of the models (except the NAM). Have to depend on banding away from the main LP to get the job done. One reason for the NAM's depiction (I believe, I'm a little out of my depth here) is enhancement due to the placement and strength of a jet streak
  2. I wouldn't shocked to see a double maxima, one over the western Piedmont, where banding develops and where temps are better intially. Over the eastern Piedmont could stay pretty dry waiting for the transfer and rates will have a hard time overcoming temps of 34-36 initially. And of course closer to the coast will fair better, with 3"+ for NE NC
  3. Big improvement on the NAM through hour 60. Seems they NAM likes to over-amplify at this range though, so tog be taken with a grain rain of salt
  4. Me too. I just know that one day, it'll be "the big one". It's kinda my Moby Dick. When I was a kid DC seemed to rarely get more than 6" or so of snow. Then magical 09-10 hit when I was in middle school. I had no idea 2-3 feet of snow was possible, let alone two storms of that magnitude in a single winter. It was like being transported to another planet, and ever since, I've craved that same feeling to happen again
  5. It's been a long couple of days since that absolutely bonkers GFS run. Always disappointing when a high ceiling event falls through, even knowing how unlikely a high impact event was in reality
  6. Elizabeth City's record of 9.2" for the month of January seems to be within reach
  7. My best understanding is we need a weaker Northern stream and earlier phasing with the Southern stream, correct?
  8. The RGEM wasn't exactly perfect with our last storm. It was definitely over-amped for the majority of it's runs
  9. RGEM is real close to a solution that work well for most. I think no matter what happens NE NC will fair the best
  10. I know you're kidding around, but any big wrapped up low that passes close to the coast, they worry about mixing. Small changes in track can have huge differences in totals, especially for areas right near the water. The cape can get nothing and just inland can get 12"+.
  11. Yep. It's easy to forget how far East of us New England is. Boston is about the same distance East of Greensboro as it is North. (400+ miles)
  12. Seems to be not quite as good as the GFS at that hour, but better than the Euro
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