olafminesaw

I really do think that advanced statistical analysis is the way forward in making more accurate forecasts. I think another component is using normal distributions to help account for climo. This would be especially helpful if these distributions could be able to change based on current indices or other correlations developed through AI. Many times modeling spits out a solution to the far right of the distribution and everyone gets all excited, but more often than not, the error is to the left then to the right.

No real strong CAD like we were seeing in some model runs. But a higher chance of all snow after the frontal passage. I worry in this sort of setup though, that surface temps will be warm and precip rates unimpressive. Usually that's a bad combo. But probably the best chance since the December PV flop. Chance of seeing flakes : 65% A coating + : 35% 1"+ : 15%

I feel like not much has changed over the past 24 hrs or so of models, gotta keep things in perspective. Something to watch, is it seems like although the cold and moisture are going to link up somewhere, the cold at the surface isn't nearly looking as impressive as many model runs yesterday. Just something to watch in terms of trends. Pretty common to see air masses moderate around these parts until not even a thread the needle storm track gets the job done.

The Euro slides the high too far east and the storm is too amped, so sad trombones. Close to a raging sleet storm again, but illustrates how delicate the 0z Euro progression really was.

Yep! Precip type map show zr, but here's the sounding. This kinda of setup is extremely rare.

The Euro requires a perfect timing of the HP, and LP moving in tandem, with the HP needing to be well placed and strong enough. Seems unlikely, but probably in that case would be more of a sleet storm than ice storm. The 6z GFS is a much better path to snow, and closer range so, a bit more plausible.

Euro- wet frontal boundary, with back end flurry potential, followed by deep cold and suppression (snow down to FL panhandle). Basically the low runs out ahead of the HP, never allowing a wave to run along the boundary GFS- a HP further east, and a stronger wave, mean the two duke it out. Ultimately the LP wins, cutting north, but not before a long duration frozen mess takes place, due to a stalled boundary. Canadian - similar to the Euro, but perhaps a step towards the GFS

Before the threat of frozen precip can arrive, there is an increasing threat of flooding, or at least a long duration stretch of soggy weather

Still, no support from the ensembles. We have, after all seen the wild swings of the OP (as is to be expected at this range.) It seems like a plausible enough outcome nonetheless.

How it feels to track the GFS:

I'm sick of 9-10 days out! But something along those lines could definitely work. I think we will have plenty of moisture to work with, just need that cold to press hard and early as the moisture rides the boundary. I don't feel good about getting anything on the back side of the cold, which appears transient for now.

Seriously, lol

Gotta love how the next storm system pops a low around Corpus Christie and manages to cut to Michigan. Truly bleak times

Of course, even in good patterns we fight against our climo, but this has been a really good trend for once:

Lol, that end of run storm is bonkers. How many winters of snow would I give up for this to verify? Probably at least 5. But of course this means little, other than reflecting a switch towards a generally better pattern

Haha, perfect track, and it flips back to rain on the back end

Yeah, I'm definitely watching that CAD with the 23rd event. Hard to score with how warm the whole continent has been and will be. But we shall see.

It's not 2022, but we got some pretty impressive sub-tropical action going on in the N Atlantic

Snow showers possible tonight, particularly east of 85. Likely too warm to accumulate, aside from perhaps in isolated heavier bands

Meanwhile...

I'm suspicious, but subtle trends make all the difference. I think it's too little, too late for the triad (besides we don't normally do well in these setups), but perhaps a glimmer of hope for the Triangle.

Actually the clown map has an isolated area with 6"+. Which if anything like that happens would be hilarious, the way this winter has gone . It's funny because the mid Atlantic forum was drawn in by this wave a few days back.

Yep! And high and dry for the piedmont

Buffalo is going to get repeatedly crushed by apps runner after apps runner. I just know it!

I think in general people over-estimate the predictive power of an H5 pattern on surface outcomes. Especially for a smoothed out mean. We can only say, x features are correlated with Y outcome, but exact placement, strength, interaction between them is an inexact science at best, even if the output is largely correct. Snow maps help to show where cold and moisture is linking up broadly, but are prone to random variation. The addition of the 100+ members of the new EPS will be a big help in this respect, assuming they are sufficiently perturbed. Temp and moisture anomaly maps together can get you a little more detail on how it's all coming together, but don't show how individual waves may potentially play out. All this together is what makes d5+ forecasts a complete crapshoot.