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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I wouldn't say I'm excited, but this is a weather board and I'm interested in weather, regardless of the degree to which I enjoy it. Ice storms are fascinating from a meteorological perspective, even if they are the saddest of frozen precip types
  2. olafminesaw
    The 0z Icon also has a pretty significant snow to ice storm (mostly ice)
  3. olafminesaw
    About a quarter of the GFS ensembles show big mixy hits. Most of the rest are pretty suppressed or the energy cuts to our west and it's too warm
  4. olafminesaw
    The Euro on board with the storm idea. Model consensus at the moment is mid-levels will be a struggle, but as others have said, CAD may rear it's ugly head
  5. olafminesaw
    I know RDU Climo sucks, but crazy that 3"+ storms only occur about every 2-3 years. Question: how did you compile the data for multi day storms? I've been meaning to do a similar analysis for Greensboro, but only find day snowfall data out there.
  6. olafminesaw
    In other news...
  7. olafminesaw
    Seems the long range favors mixy slopfests. We shall see. This is the time of year where marginal temp events rarely work out and the wedge always wins
  8. olafminesaw
    Coming down pretty good in Greensboro, despite light radar returns
  9. olafminesaw
    Wetbulb temp of 35 in Greensboro. Just waiting for the precip to arrive
  10. olafminesaw
    I think the perception about Greensboro is drive by the fact that we do tend to cash in to some degree on most events effecting this board and tend to do well when Raleigh flips to rain. However, a lot of times, we end up stuck on the fringes, whether it's southern VA that gets the jackpot, or Fayetville.
  11. olafminesaw
    Should start to see development between 4-5 up your way. But lots of Virga until the atmosphere gets saturated
  12. olafminesaw
    Are we quite sure it's not an opening into the underworld?
  13. olafminesaw
    Anyone who gets 2"+ is going to see some pretty decent drifts with gusts in the mid 30s
  14. olafminesaw
    As someone said a few pages back, models have no idea what the qpf distribution is going to play out. Just gotta watch where the best envelope and wait for now casting. I just wish this wasn't in the middle of the night
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    Lol, the 10:1 weenie map has 40" over my house for the full run
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    I don't know whether to feel nervous or confident about the fact that most models have consistently put the best banding over the triad.
  19. olafminesaw
    Yep, it's some love from the ULL, with some enhancement from the jet as the trough goes negative. The mid-Atlantic forum is bemoaning the fact that all the best dynamics for this feature are down here, so that's always a good sign
  20. olafminesaw
    RGEM is the RDPS (confusing I know)
  21. olafminesaw
    The heavier bands could put down snow pretty quick. Unfortunately the window is small for accumulating snow. Also have to battle surface temps at onset
  22. olafminesaw
    I know it's frustrating to watch the coastal portion of the storm slip away, but honestly, not a bad look for a 1-3" of fluff for most of the Piedmont. Even with a late phase, the backside potential is decent
  23. olafminesaw
    Eh, getting into the range where that's no longer true. The higher resolution of the OP serves our purposes better
  24. olafminesaw
    The NYC and NE subs must be melting down right about now
  25. olafminesaw
    This has been a really persistent feature, particularly on the globals. As I mentioned a page or two ago, there could be enhancement from a jet streak, which often over-performs Obviously that value is crazy, but I could see someone getting 3-5" somewhere in the Piedmont, but fairly localized
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