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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The Euro has some light snow up there as well. Seems to be more of a mountains threat, but we shall see
  2. olafminesaw
    Wow! Still in the mid 40s in parts of the Piedmont. The wedge is starting to break here though. Above 50 and no longer foggy/misty
  3. olafminesaw
    There's a slim chance on the 7th/8th. Right now doesn't look like much cold air to work with, so would need a stronger system to generate it's own. But looks like the kind of system that would get squashed easily by any decent cold
  4. olafminesaw
    The NAM is the "singles in your area"
  5. olafminesaw
    Our next threat period around the 10th
  6. olafminesaw
    UKMET looksmore flat. I'm starting to lose faith in the GFS
  7. olafminesaw
    Columbia to Charlotte to Fayetville could be in for a big time storm for their standards
  8. olafminesaw
    GFS stops the bleeding a bit. Very similar to 6z, but nearly gets enough tilt towards the end to get the precip shield north.
  9. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro is flat as a pancake
  10. olafminesaw
    I agree, although with the caveat that delayed storm development has been a consistent issue this winter. Could turn out more of a coastal threat. The good news about the 6z GFS is the high is in a great position. The only reason it warms so much is the LP is weak, there's hardly any precip and it's mid-day as the low is pulling away
  11. olafminesaw
    Yeah...not a great trend. The door is open, but closing fast. There's hope through at least the 0z trends tonight though
  12. olafminesaw
    So...model mayhem for the next for days then.... Cool, cool
  13. olafminesaw
    Models are converging reasonably well considering we're still 4.5 days out. I feel pretty good about the spread at the moment, with the caveat that a moderate/heavy all snow event is definitely a bit of a long shot
  14. olafminesaw
    Duration is the biggest factor. Most significant ice storms are at least 12 hours of precip and usually not particularly heavy, but consistent. So overrunning events tend to be the highest potential
  15. olafminesaw
    The cold push is pretty stout, with a dry airmass (this a few hours before onset) This would yield a wet bulb temp of 30 degrees with cold continuing to push in
  16. olafminesaw
    Jan 16th part 2 (but with a better track)
  17. olafminesaw
    ICON looks Euro-like FWIW. Decent hit of snow for Greenville NC
  18. olafminesaw
    Some of the disagreement about in-situ CAD comes down to different Climo dictating the outcome. Pretty good setup for ice in the Western Piedmont/SC upstate (although probably more moderate than major ice storm), much more marginal for our many wake county posters
  19. olafminesaw
    Yesterday the placement was looking better. Just look at the trend on the GEFS. Any amount of amplification will push the cold out in a hurry. If the low can slow down and remain to our South like the Euro depicts however, mid levels may not torch so much and we may stay frozen (at least in the Western Piedmont)
  20. olafminesaw
    Not a terrible place to be though. Just need a low to pop
  21. olafminesaw
    Yeah, for sure. Some similarities to the big mid month storm, although not as amplified and less surface cold to work with
  22. olafminesaw
    Amplification is what causes the warming of the mid-levels though, so it's a delicate balance
  23. olafminesaw
    Euro gets frozen precip in the area, but about 24 hours later, so not nearly as good a look with the high having retreated to the east significantly more than the GFS
  24. olafminesaw
    One thing to keep in mind is the radical difference between the way the GFS and Euro handle the next frontal system (at around hour 84). I have a feeling the Euro won't look anything like the GFS due to the downstream implications. It's going to take a while to iron this one out
  25. olafminesaw
    I don't see this setup flipping to rain for most of the Piedmont
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