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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Actually in Greensboro, 90-91 had two ZR/Sleet events (as well as one period of light snow) and 91-92 had one light zr event (mid February). So this year would be truly unprecedented if no more frozen fell through the end of the winter.
  2. olafminesaw
    Starting to see a signal for a CAD event around the last week of the month. It's kinda more shocking we haven't had anything close to frozen from CAD this year than that we haven't had any snow. This time of year, cold rain is the more likely outcome though.
  3. olafminesaw
    Looks like there's going to be a lot of cold air in Canada for once, but nothing to force it South
  4. olafminesaw
    I will take my token flakes and run:
  5. olafminesaw
    *sigh...
  6. olafminesaw
    Any analogs you can think of for this sort of ZR event? I figure there isn't really a chance for this to occur below 1,500 ft or so
  7. olafminesaw
    Not good trends on the overnight models for anyone east of the mountains. No cold air to speak of. Too far North and too weak.
  8. olafminesaw
    Yeah, especially since I feel we've seen stronger ULLs get tugged further north/inland (and vice versa). Also the potential is limited because the western Piedmont and northern foothills will likely sit in the dry slot for a while
  9. olafminesaw
    Thermals are kinda trash, but a nice track for the piedmont that run
  10. olafminesaw
    This is right under a heavy band in Virginia as the back end rolls through. Would the column cool more than depicted in this case? Probably. But there just needs to be a deeper cold source to make this workable
  11. olafminesaw
    Really what we need to be tracking (with respect to low elevation snow)is the 1000-500mb 540 thickness line. The ULL is weak, so it never gets cold enough on the Euro, even with the better track compared to the GFS
  12. olafminesaw
    The Euro looking similar through 54, perhaps a touch south. Not expecting a step towards the stronger GFS solution this run
  13. olafminesaw
    Makes me wonder how many people have called to whatever gov agency about a weather balloon they spotted
  14. olafminesaw
    The trough that will become our ULL is currently pushing through New Mexico
  15. olafminesaw
    UKMET weaker with the ULL
  16. olafminesaw
    The stronger ULL yields much better back side dynamic bands of precip. Small changes made a big difference. I don't think we're done just yet.
  17. olafminesaw
    GFS largely the same I think. Seems to be a bit more consolidated with the ULL, but mostly noise.
  18. olafminesaw
    Right now it's looking like the most likely to get a surprise in the lowlands is somewhere in the region from central Alabama, up into northern Georgia and Eastern TN. This is an area that often seems to miss out on the big coastal storms, so that would be a big win for them if it pans out. Still the ongoing caveats about localized banding, dynamics etc. In those areas.
  19. olafminesaw
    The TT algorithm is suspect to say the least...
  20. olafminesaw
    I think the backend with the ULL swinging through is the best hope for many. Lately, runs have been showing a dry slot and not enough surface cold, but banding could develop with a stronger ULL.
  21. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile...the HRRR had us reaching 71 today, which would smash the daily record of 69.
  22. olafminesaw
    Still some more snow after this for the mountains
  23. olafminesaw
    Vs this morning's run
  24. olafminesaw
    So here's my thinking. Certainly the track of the system more inland is a problem for the Piedmont of NC, as we don't get a chance to be west of the track until the system has spun down. But the other issue seems to be that the SLP is running out ahead of the ULL and the SLP is getting elongated. We need them to be more stacked in order for the better dynamics and access to the cold pool to come into play. See these two model runs 6z this morning vs 6z yesterday morning:
  25. olafminesaw
    Yeah, follows the trend of stalling and running the surface low inland while the ULL hangs back west of the APPS, so no cold to be found
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