I think not nearly as good as the GFS, but a little better than the Euro. I think a big key feature is the blocking high to the north. The GFS is pretty well positioned and strong, while the NAM/Euro/Icon are weaker and too far West
I agree, it's not so much ground temps I'm concerned about as getting the front to move through quick enough before the moisture arrives. Gotta watch trends here, if we can move it south and stronger, we're in business
Still...gotta watch the initial disturbance, clipper thingy. Could drop a sneaky few inches somewhere. Currently favors to our North, but with the suppression trend, could work out around here
I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.