olafminesaw

The stronger ULL yields much better back side dynamic bands of precip. Small changes made a big difference. I don't think we're done just yet.

GFS largely the same I think. Seems to be a bit more consolidated with the ULL, but mostly noise.

Right now it's looking like the most likely to get a surprise in the lowlands is somewhere in the region from central Alabama, up into northern Georgia and Eastern TN. This is an area that often seems to miss out on the big coastal storms, so that would be a big win for them if it pans out. Still the ongoing caveats about localized banding, dynamics etc. In those areas.

The TT algorithm is suspect to say the least...

I think the backend with the ULL swinging through is the best hope for many. Lately, runs have been showing a dry slot and not enough surface cold, but banding could develop with a stronger ULL.

Meanwhile...the HRRR had us reaching 71 today, which would smash the daily record of 69.

Still some more snow after this for the mountains

Vs this morning's run

So here's my thinking. Certainly the track of the system more inland is a problem for the Piedmont of NC, as we don't get a chance to be west of the track until the system has spun down. But the other issue seems to be that the SLP is running out ahead of the ULL and the SLP is getting elongated. We need them to be more stacked in order for the better dynamics and access to the cold pool to come into play. See these two model runs 6z this morning vs 6z yesterday morning:

Yeah, follows the trend of stalling and running the surface low inland while the ULL hangs back west of the APPS, so no cold to be found

I think the issue is the storm kinda stalls out and never gets past us.all the cold air aloft slowly disapates

I think we should have a little more clarity once this complex trough interaction takes place in the next 36 hrs. I can't imagine models are going to Handle it perfectly, and it will have a pretty big effect on our ULL

Pretty much in line with the OP. Only time I pay any attention to ensembles is to see if they have agreement or not, otherwise the details aren't so important. Especially with the complexity of the ULL, banding etc., Not being handed so well at the lower resolutions

Yeah, it runs too far inland for anyone east of the mountains. Hopefully 18z runs can stop the trend.

A touch closer to the coast than last run, but this looks good

This makes sense. I think we kinda want to start rooting for a more progressive system at this point. In general, modeling has slowed down over the past 48 hours of runs.

@Upstate Tiger posted the first map of this threat. He can take it home?

A little more inland than we'd like, but not bad

Running now. Looks like an improvement to me (further south, stronger ULL)

I agree! Not intending to be negative (should have drank my coffee before posting). Just trying to keep in perspective that we are still, even with positive trends more likely to miss on significant accumulations that cash in. But this is by far the best shot we've had this winter.

Overnight runs aren't necessarily all that great. Yes, models are currently converging towards an ideal track and evolution of The ULL. But not only is this very much subject to change, but the Euro shows, how even a pretty good outcome, which is like, 90% of the way to the GFS, just doesn't get the job done. Also the 0Z GFS tracked like 50 miles more inland which pushes the piedmont out of the good banding. 50 miles further east and you get something more like the Euro. It's delicate to say the least and we have at least 48 hours before we can really know what's going to happen.

Just gotta keep watching trends

The ICON is a solid hit. Looks a lot like the GFS, although a hair more progressive. A big improvement from last run