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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Still some hope for flakes, but the warm/whiff scenario is looking way more likely with the overnight runs.
  2. olafminesaw
    Yeah I'd favor DC here. Odds of being jackpot zone Whiff/too warm 25% NC/Southern VA 20% DC 40% NYC 15%
  3. olafminesaw
    North of the OP, but not terrible either
  4. olafminesaw
    I wouldn't call it cold chasing moisture necessarily (and all the issues that come along with that). It's just that the storm is too far north. A really good run though, with the way things had been trending.
  5. olafminesaw
    GEFS looks decent, but I think this is a 10-20% type proposition
  6. olafminesaw
    It's the real deal guys...
  7. olafminesaw
    Gusts of over 50 mph tonight on the HRRR. In the mid 40s in my point and click
  8. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile in the Pacific, the bomb cyclone bringing our pattern change is forecasted by the GFS to drop 63 mb, from 994 to 931 in just 30 hours. Wild stuff
  9. olafminesaw
    Keep in mind that's a seven day mean, so lots of possibilities for deeper cold within that window. Of course, getting the cold and moisture to link up is the key (not counting on it) but the orientation of the cold is pretty ideal. Boone has lots of reason for optimism, and Climo makes any wintery precip a long shot for the Piedmont
  10. olafminesaw
  11. olafminesaw
    Nice radiation cooling this morning and a very heavy frost. Down to 21 at the airport, which is nearly a50 degree drop from 36 hours earlier
  12. olafminesaw
    RGEM is quite wet but questionable thermals. Which is odd because I thought it had a cold bias
  13. olafminesaw
    My only hesitation is all those areas without decent elevation are going to have temp (34-36 degrees outside of the heaviest rates) sun angle, soil temp issues (in descending order of importance here). Banding will need to develop to get the job done. The shift to mid-day instead of early morning hurts us here. In fact the 12z RGEM pulls decent banding through Raleigh in the evening, where timing had actually improved.
  14. olafminesaw
    Right now, a blend of the RGEM, GFS, and Euro, which favors the mountains, foothills and up into central VA I think between Martinsville and Lynchburg will do quite well
  15. olafminesaw
    Yeah...I don't buy what it's selling. Tried to get the coastal going. 18z NAM strikes again with some left field solution
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    I agree that temps would be an issue, but I think it's possible (although perhaps unlikely) that rates would win out. Temps fall to just below freezing in the heaviest bands in Greensboro. I could see Raleigh falling into the 33-34 range given heavy enough precip, if that band can manage to hold together past the Triad It's a long shot, but my main point is that it's a small step in the right direction for those of us in the Piedmont, towards some fun nowcasting
  18. olafminesaw
    That's round two. Don't feel like posting from my phone, but for the main event a sizeable improvement, bringing the energy south. One more shift and Raleigh would be in business. Looking decent up this way for a sloppy inch.
  19. olafminesaw
    Not bad in this neck of the woods. Models finally converging
  20. olafminesaw
    Kinda feels like we're being presented with 17 different ways to fail and then, the GFS, which shows us getting fringed and DC pummeled...Climo is fun
  21. olafminesaw
    Surface temps marginal to say the least in the Euro. Radically different than last run at H5, but hard to say it's a step towards the GFS. Just a different solution entirely. I don't think the Euro was terribly far from a solid event
  22. olafminesaw
    Euro doesn't look too bad honestly. Way different look than the GFS. But better phasing
  23. olafminesaw
    UKMET is super weak. Hardly any phasing.
  24. olafminesaw
    The HP is too far North, which allows the storm to escape to our North before phasing and crushing New England
  25. olafminesaw
    Overall, a slight positive trend I think
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