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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    47 degrees and no need for a jacket, with a light breeze and that warm march sun!
  2. olafminesaw
    Before DST root for cold in case of snow. Then root for warmth until Mother's day when we root for cooler than average temps until Halloween.
  3. olafminesaw
    Yep, suppressed and energy held back. Definitely a possibility and more of a fear for me at this point than a cutter.
  4. olafminesaw
    That last one looks fake. Like a zoomed in photo of one of those mini Christmas villages.
  5. olafminesaw
    Even WPC is highlighting a d7 threat for the mountains
  6. olafminesaw
    Overnight models looking surprisingly good for the lowlands. We may close in on a solution a little quicker this time around (for better or for worse) with a less progressive flow.
  7. olafminesaw
    Although the OP was a dud (more euro-like) the ensembles are the best yet.
  8. olafminesaw
    You simply flew to the wrong Portland!
  9. olafminesaw
    Fairly good signal for the mountains. Also a cluster of members that stay suppressed.
  10. olafminesaw
    Looks good to me
  11. olafminesaw
    CMC isn't far off, but wish there were some suppressed, cold/dry solutions from the globals.
  12. olafminesaw
    Drops 2" qpf in 12 hours in the Jackpot zone. Simply a beautiful run, despite the reality of how unlikely that is.
  13. olafminesaw
    Yeah, looking a bit less likely than yesterday, but still on the table. Let's see if the 6z GEFS is more on board.
  14. olafminesaw
    (sorry, can't help myself)
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    Images starting to emerge. It's never good when you don't hear much news a couple days after landfall.
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    Yeah the Euro has the same general look, but seems to just get the energy caught up out west and comes in too late to time the cold
  19. olafminesaw
    Remarkable consistency from the GFS at this range. Somehow I think we have about as good a chance as we've had all winter with this one. Which on the one hand is remarkable given the date, but on the other hand is to say, regardless of how much snow the 6z GFS and future runs may dump, it's really a long shot. Just keeping ducks on the pond is something!
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    What a forecasting nightmare. Fun to watch from the outside, with no skin in the game.
  22. olafminesaw
    RAH agressive for once (when the stakes are low I suppose). Matches up pretty well with the HRRr's depiction (I think it would be cold enough for some stickage in grassy areas)
  23. olafminesaw
    The HRRR has been trending warmer aloft, but still has a decent period of heavy kitchen sink tomorrow morning. Here is a comparison of the 0z actual sounding to what the HRRR has. Seems to have a good handle on things.
  24. olafminesaw
    Brutally close
  25. olafminesaw
    The warm nose is probably the biggest argument against snow in the Piedmont. Kinda hard to predict to what degree the mid-levels will cooperate and whether there is enough low level cold to be sleet if not
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