olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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One thing to note is that winds aren't actually pushing into the bay from the south until Thursday afternoon, due to approach angle. This may mitigate a GFS solution somewhat as the storm is starting to weaken. Probably too little too late, but still
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The GFS is a hair east through 57.
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Gotta love the NAM
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Updated surge forecast upped to 5-10'
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Per radar, Ian is still trying to close off the eyewall. Judging by the past few hours this will likely take at least a few more hours to occur. Until it does so, Ian may maintain only modest strengthening. At the very least, land interaction may end up tightening the core starting in 12 hours or so.
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Structure from a few hours ago
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Yeah, I think we will still have a good amount of track until it passes over Cuba. Meanwhile it appears that the structure has degraded somewhat, perhaps ingesting some dry air
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Yep, I think largely due to initializing stronger. Pretty close to the GFS track, maybe a little quicker
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One bit of good news for Tampa is the new moon was yesterday
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There are some 1,500 ft mountains for Ian to traverse, it will be interesting to see how this may impact the storm. It may tighten up the core Neat how the convection around the eye lines up with the radar which shows the eye trying to close atm.
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Stalls out and crawls NNE from here. Not only is surge a factor of strength and proximity to the coast, but also where the stall occurs
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The whole cone is pretty uniform as far as climo goes
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Euro ens north of the OP, with a cluster into Panama City. Still, a tight cluster right around the OP as well
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Looks like a big 'ol plate of scrambled eggs. Like something straight out of the WPAC. Maybe Dmin tonight can get some convection going and get this thing going
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Juicy next week or so thanks largely to Ian
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Found the weenie I do feel like when the NHC calls for RI, they're usually right. Delayed, but probably not denied
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Looks like a classic setup for flooding for somewhere in the SE
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Probably strong enough though that it will still be a significant impact.
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Shrimp incoming in 6-12 hours
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Seems like a pretty good analog:
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There's some missing data, but Sable island recorded a gust of 120 mph last night
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46 mph
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Yeah, obviously, that's a highly unlikely outcome. Has there ever been a storm that's made multiple landfalls in the US as a major? (excluding barrier islands etc.)
