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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I would want to be in the triangle from Rocky Mount to nags head to VA Beach for this storm
  2. olafminesaw
    NAM is A bit more positively tilted and faster.
  3. olafminesaw
    NAM has light snow breaking out from the VA border and North 10 AM Friday. Getting the party started early!
  4. olafminesaw
    Hope it works out better than this one (in all seriousness, that's a pretty reasonable map all things considered)
  5. olafminesaw
    0z vs 6z EPS is a nice uptrend
  6. olafminesaw
    One limiting factor I noticed this morning is the low is pretty sprawling to start and takes a while to tighten up. The low track of the Euro is close to ideal ideal but suffers from slower consolidation than the GFS (a little further north than we would like as well)
  7. olafminesaw
    Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy
  8. olafminesaw
    You know something is going right when the mid Atlantic forum starts stirring up trouble in here
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    He has a point, we are still in a relatively delicate position. However, spread will continue to narrow. If we can hold until Tommorow nights runs, we'll be feeling pretty good.
  11. olafminesaw
    Listen, if we have to worry about sleet cutting into our totals, we're talking some pretty epic totals.
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    Oh my...
  14. olafminesaw
    It serves as an appetizer to the rest of the globals, but is hot garbage
  15. olafminesaw
    There really aren't huge differences between the EUro and GFS, wouldn't take much to trend towards a big storm or towards nothing: EURO GFS
  16. olafminesaw
    12Z Full phase: Canadian, GFS, Partial/late Phase: Euro⏫, Euro AI, AI GFS No phase: UKMET⏬, ICON, NEXT model⏬ Confidence is growing in the partial phase scenario, but all options still on the table
  17. olafminesaw
    It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro
  18. olafminesaw
    Everything trended West/slower with the last storm, so not entirely unreasonable to expect
  19. olafminesaw
    EPS also looked improved. Just waiting on NEXT to wrap up the 12z suite
  20. olafminesaw
    Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time
  21. olafminesaw
    Euro AI also jumps east. Probably about time to take the GFS around back and put it out of its misery
  22. olafminesaw
    What we are seeing is the ensemble members having decent spread between the three camps, so when we see the OP runs jump back and forth, they are just reflecting that spread. For that reason, I would not be surprised to see the Euro come back West, just be aware that does not mean it is necessarily trending positively, just jumping around within the spread of outcomes
  23. olafminesaw
    Sure! I'll update after the 12z Suite. 12z UKMET further East, paused too late, looks a lot like the Euro
  24. olafminesaw
    A bit further East, but still in the favorable phase camp
  25. olafminesaw
    That goes in the weenie runs HOF along with that run that GFS run that dropped two feet four days out with the last storm
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