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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    As it stands: Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done) Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model No phase: Euro, ICON
  3. olafminesaw
    There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing
  4. olafminesaw
    Always bet on a missed phase.
  5. olafminesaw
    Oof
  6. olafminesaw
    A miss for them isn't necessarily bad for us
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    Confidence growing for a light to moderate event across central NC. Still relying on early phasing for the higher totals (6" +)
  9. olafminesaw
    Lucy whet her appetite and is hungry for more victims
  10. olafminesaw
    We can't seem to get a trough to tilt negative to save our lives the last few years. Not being negative about the prospects for this storm, just an observation
  11. olafminesaw
    Dang.
  12. olafminesaw
    AI GFS digs the trough much more this run
  13. olafminesaw
    Nice, gotta focus on the big picture pieces. All the pieces are on the board,just need to nail down phasing/timing of all the energy. Will be a few more days of model mayhem before we can start focusing on the details
  14. olafminesaw
    Really neat loop and a word of caution https://x.com/TomNiziol/status/2015858077736546666?s=20
  15. olafminesaw
    14 days 21 hours in 1977. With a decent snowpack it may start pushing towards the top of the list
  16. olafminesaw
    Euro AI Rock Steady in the general evolution (6z vs 12z)
  17. olafminesaw
    Euro AI and AI EPS are both looking really good
  18. olafminesaw
    EPS more suppressed, but in a great spot for the coast
  19. olafminesaw
    It's the double barrel low that keeps the Euro from being a bigger run. That primary low position is perfect, just need it to consolidate
  20. olafminesaw
    A beautiful ice cold run for the carolinas with decent moisture. All we can really ask for
  21. olafminesaw
    The HRPDS nailed this storm BTW. Unfortunately just at the edge of it's domain, but this was some frames from the Saturday 12z run
  22. olafminesaw
    Not too far off from the ICON, especially at this range
  23. olafminesaw
    This site is awesome! has all kinds of customized overlay options, but being overlay reflectivity with 500 mb vorticity really helps show the interaction between the surface and upper levels. Aguacero | Advanced Weather Visualization
  24. olafminesaw
    Yeah, even Richmond kinda gets left out of their forum mostly. It's truly just DC/Nova. Southern VA has about as high a concentration of Confederate flags as anywhere, so I think the belong in the SE (even though we begrudge how much more snow he gets)
  25. olafminesaw
    Jan 2000 blizzard vs this morning's Euro, crazy phasing aside, it's not an unreasonable analog
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