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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    I actually wonder if the ERC is nearly complete. This image was as of a couple hours ago
  3. olafminesaw
    Shear evident on IR, perhaps a bit more than expected at this point. But convection is fighting hard with a new burst wrapping around the center. On track for steady weakening, but a rapid expansion of the windfield.
  4. olafminesaw
    Wind field starting to expand a bit
  5. olafminesaw
    Is that one massive feeder band? Or another feature.
  6. olafminesaw
    Also been moving south a bit the past couple hours away from the dry air and shear, probably the biggest reason for the rapid improvement
  7. olafminesaw
    The theme of this year's hurricane season: cinnamon roll
  8. olafminesaw
    Seems to be structural changes rather than an ERC. No signs of a double wind maxima on recon. New convection is trying to wrap around the eye again,looks to be larger.
  9. olafminesaw
    Where the center makes landfall and even just a few miles to the right of center will get much lower surge. Check out this graphic from Ian
  10. olafminesaw
    Intense convection wrapping around the new eye
  11. olafminesaw
    No signs of shear, now that the new eye is established, should have another specimen by this afternoon. I suspect it will hit cat 5 again, but winds may continue to drop before thy go back up again
  12. olafminesaw
    I think just contracting based off radar. Does look less symmetrical but it's far from the radar site so hard to say
  13. olafminesaw
    One big difference is Katrina was already quite large when it reached cat 5. A medium/large major hurricane making landfall in the GOM is going to have tremendous surge potential regardless, but I am not sure the comparison is appropriate.
  14. olafminesaw
    Wow, eye really warming
  15. olafminesaw
    May be just a wobble but a bit more Eastward motion now. At least it might miss the built up barrier islands and brush the national park instead.
  16. olafminesaw
    That gradient is wild. Something like a 40 mb rise in pressure over about 7 miles
  17. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro is a worst case track for Tampa. Makes landfall right around Clearwater.
  18. olafminesaw
    Gravity waves apparent as the sun rises
  19. olafminesaw
    Any idea how the blob of convection to Milton's NE may have an effect? (if any)
  20. olafminesaw
    Pressure falling like a rock. Winds up but not as dramatically
  21. olafminesaw
    Boom
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah not good seeing it go through an ERC halfway across the Gulf.
  23. olafminesaw
    The waters it will be traveling over are more typical of mid September. No upwelling from Helene to speak of, especially with the track it's taking.
  24. olafminesaw
    The 6z ensembles well North of the 0z model consensus
  25. olafminesaw
    Good point. To what extent has development made South Florida more vulnerable to freshwater flooding? I feel like I only hear about flash flooding in isolated areas when thunderstorms are training over one area?
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