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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. My hourly forecast in Greensboro is showing 8". The highest I've seen this far out since moving here in 2018
  2. I am thinking the sooner the trough digs and tilts negative the better shot the coastal low will have to become dominant and cause both lows to consolidate further west?
  3. I would want to be in the triangle from Rocky Mount to nags head to VA Beach for this storm
  4. NAM has light snow breaking out from the VA border and North 10 AM Friday. Getting the party started early!
  5. Hope it works out better than this one (in all seriousness, that's a pretty reasonable map all things considered)
  6. One limiting factor I noticed this morning is the low is pretty sprawling to start and takes a while to tighten up. The low track of the Euro is close to ideal ideal but suffers from slower consolidation than the GFS (a little further north than we would like as well)
  7. Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy
  8. You know something is going right when the mid Atlantic forum starts stirring up trouble in here
  9. He has a point, we are still in a relatively delicate position. However, spread will continue to narrow. If we can hold until Tommorow nights runs, we'll be feeling pretty good.
  10. Listen, if we have to worry about sleet cutting into our totals, we're talking some pretty epic totals.
  11. It serves as an appetizer to the rest of the globals, but is hot garbage
  12. There really aren't huge differences between the EUro and GFS, wouldn't take much to trend towards a big storm or towards nothing: EURO GFS
  13. 12Z Full phase: Canadian, GFS, Partial/late Phase: Euro⏫, Euro AI, AI GFS No phase: UKMET⏬, ICON, NEXT model⏬ Confidence is growing in the partial phase scenario, but all options still on the table
  14. It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro
  15. Everything trended West/slower with the last storm, so not entirely unreasonable to expect
  16. EPS also looked improved. Just waiting on NEXT to wrap up the 12z suite
  17. Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time
  18. Euro AI also jumps east. Probably about time to take the GFS around back and put it out of its misery
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