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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
As it stands: Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done) Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model No phase: Euro, ICON -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Always bet on a missed phase. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
A miss for them isn't necessarily bad for us -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Confidence growing for a light to moderate event across central NC. Still relying on early phasing for the higher totals (6" +) -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Lucy whet her appetite and is hungry for more victims -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
We can't seem to get a trough to tilt negative to save our lives the last few years. Not being negative about the prospects for this storm, just an observation -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Nice, gotta focus on the big picture pieces. All the pieces are on the board,just need to nail down phasing/timing of all the energy. Will be a few more days of model mayhem before we can start focusing on the details -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Really neat loop and a word of caution https://x.com/TomNiziol/status/2015858077736546666?s=20 -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
14 days 21 hours in 1977. With a decent snowpack it may start pushing towards the top of the list -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
EPS more suppressed, but in a great spot for the coast -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
It's the double barrel low that keeps the Euro from being a bigger run. That primary low position is perfect, just need it to consolidate -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
A beautiful ice cold run for the carolinas with decent moisture. All we can really ask for -
Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs
olafminesaw replied to BooneWX's topic in Southeastern States
The HRPDS nailed this storm BTW. Unfortunately just at the edge of it's domain, but this was some frames from the Saturday 12z run -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Not too far off from the ICON, especially at this range -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
This site is awesome! has all kinds of customized overlay options, but being overlay reflectivity with 500 mb vorticity really helps show the interaction between the surface and upper levels. Aguacero | Advanced Weather Visualization -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, even Richmond kinda gets left out of their forum mostly. It's truly just DC/Nova. Southern VA has about as high a concentration of Confederate flags as anywhere, so I think the belong in the SE (even though we begrudge how much more snow he gets) -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
