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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Some in that Western max had over 20:1 ratios. GSO reported .4" liquid
  2. olafminesaw
    9", should be about wrapped up
  3. olafminesaw
    Just over 4" in South Greensboro
  4. olafminesaw
    He called it days ago
  5. olafminesaw
    This zone has been getting pounded all day.
  6. olafminesaw
    Feel pretty happy with the map I made last night based on how things are currently playing out
  7. olafminesaw
    Deformation band about to swing through too should be 1"per hour rates easy
  8. olafminesaw
    The RAP hasn't been perfect but it has easily been the best short range model for this storm so far. Consistent on showing the dry slot in the right place and the band from Charlotte extending up to the VA border.
  9. olafminesaw
    You can see the dry slot begining to shrink, I think Wake county should be getting into it in about 2-3 more hours
  10. olafminesaw
    Sorry Raleigh friends
  11. olafminesaw
    Models are notorious for under doing moisture associated with robust ULLs. I think the Western ULL piece will over perform West of 85 and the coastal generally underperform
  12. olafminesaw
    Already a dusting at GSO, bodes well as that frontogenesis gets cranking
  13. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/jackendrickwx/status/2017357675755933951?s=20 Really cool, you can see the trough diving down and starting to tilt
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    I know the RAP sucks, but why not
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    I corrected the gradients between the zones
  18. olafminesaw
    My forecast map (first time I've done one of these I think)
  19. olafminesaw
    I think the hires NAM has stumbled upon a pretty realistic depiction of how this will play out. ULL max zone, coastal crush zone. Screw zone in between. Maybe cut precip totals by 25-50% overall and call it a day. Screw zone location TBD depending on timing, trough tilt etc.
  20. olafminesaw
    The HRRR is really only good for taking radar trends as the event unfolds (under 8 hours) and creating a kind of future radar projection. And for thermal profiles. I wish they had never made it run past 18 hours
  21. olafminesaw
    The Hires NAM looks great so far, lol.
  22. olafminesaw
    They are doing damage control for it/when the forecast busts. I get the get blowback, and especially after last week's storm they are sensitive to their viewer's response if the forecast busts. But ultimately it's bad forecasting to pick the models with the lowest amounts and find justification for why it's going to be correct
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah I mean I would say the trend is meaningful and somewhere in the Piedmont is likely to get the dry slot. At the same time, the HRRR and 3km NAM solutions just don't quite pass the sniff test. Not sure they are handling the ULL/phase correctly. It's more concerning for the Triad. I think the Triangle gets the coastal/WAA banding and should hit 3"+ no problem
  24. olafminesaw
    For sure. Better for the Triangle and points East. May dry slot the Triad
  25. olafminesaw
    HRRR is running. Dry and a late start so far East of 77, but starting to crank by late morning
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