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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    You can see how dynamic lift cools the column on the GFS. A little suspect TBH, but not out of the question
  2. olafminesaw
    Also colder (then 6z anyway) a bit of a double edged sword, which is why there isn't much upside with this one
  3. olafminesaw
    Approximate cutoff between what will largely fall as rain vs mostly snow (assuming the NAM's temp profiles are correct) Within the snow zone, a coating to half an inch is possible with a small chance of more if banding develops.
  4. olafminesaw
    850 temps at onset favor snow West of 85 and rain East. Doesn't push the cold air East until after most of the moisture has exited. Just something to watch Tommorow morning
  5. olafminesaw
    This has a the makings of a big surprise for Tidewater VA
  6. olafminesaw
    Approaching landfall as a Cat 5 Flizzard
  7. olafminesaw
    The funny part is a band of rain is supposed to roll through here tomorrow
  8. olafminesaw
    I think he could very well be right, if as usual cold air takes longer than expected to bleed over the mountains. However,I do feel we could overcome with decent rates and get a coating or so as far SE as RAH
  9. olafminesaw
    I am an optimist at heart but I will believe above normal precip when I see it
  10. olafminesaw
    Another tick north on the Euro
  11. olafminesaw
    It helps that sun angle is still relatively low and ground temps should be fairly cold with how cold it's been.
  12. olafminesaw
    Hres RGEM
  13. olafminesaw
    Third wet non-accumulating snow of the year? At least we do that well
  14. olafminesaw
    Nah, we need a place to crash out regardless that's not the main thread
  15. olafminesaw
    It's pretty wild that coastal VA is looking at rain while SE Georgia might be the jackpot for snow
  16. olafminesaw
    I do think rates will over perform somewhere and there will be a surprise, in a narrow band. Just impossible to nail down where until Sunday
  17. olafminesaw
    My deep dive analysis on the 12z model suite can be found below:
  18. olafminesaw
    Thermals were actually a touch colder this run on the GFS
  19. olafminesaw
    Continues the trend towards late bloomer.
  20. olafminesaw
    A bit south/more positive tilt through 69, seems to be a step towards the Euro
  21. olafminesaw
    RGEM tilts neutral too late and too far north so it's a late bloomer, best precip over VA by the time the cold air arrives. Axis of best dynamics over DC
  22. olafminesaw
    Timing will be key too, if we can get that band of WAA moisture to set up early enough in the AM it will be easier for temps to crash and snow to start accumulating
  23. olafminesaw
    The things is, we're in a great spot to thread the needle in terms of model spread. It's just frustrating we have no wiggle room one way or the other and it's trended that way for a days now (even as track/vortex evolution has trended favorable)
  24. olafminesaw
    I'm beginning to believe something like this is our best shot at accumulating snow with rain changing over to snow at the end
  25. olafminesaw
    My biggest concern is the trend towards the low popping off the coast further north, in a more miller B fashion. This would allow more warm air to migrate inland and best dynamics to stay north of the VA border until the low starts moving more NE. At that point it becomes a cold chasing moisture kind of situation
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