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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    All eyes understandably on future Ismerelda, but nice to see a fall chill after. Lows in the mid 40s on the GFS next Friday/Saturday
  2. olafminesaw
    Still more rainfall after this across NC
  3. olafminesaw
    I was looking for an Analog yesterday and couldn't find any TS/hurricane that originated near the Bahamas and took a left hook into the Bahamas. Model consensus vs climo, should be a fun showdown.
  4. olafminesaw
    Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point
  5. olafminesaw
    Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls
  6. olafminesaw
    The visualization with the moving dots is fantastic.
  7. olafminesaw
    I'd say this is going to get the potential tropical cyclone designation/forecast cone this evening, but I wouldn't blame the NHC if the held off as long as possible until they can get some better data
  8. olafminesaw
    It smoothes out the pressure isobars between all the solutions so when you have a spread in tracks you won't see the average storm track. Spaghetti plot:
  9. olafminesaw
    I think as Newman alludes to above it's all about the timing. A faster system will be more of a NC/VA threat, the slowest solutions gets pulled OTS and somewhere in between makes that left hook into SC as it feels the pull of Humberto just a little bit. That is the most delicate balancing act so I agree it is probably the least likely.
  10. olafminesaw
  11. olafminesaw
    I do believe we can have very little confidence in models until Saturday when 94L really starts to develop. This reminds me in some ways of Joaquin, which missed the trough leading to hundreds of miles of track error 4-5 days out. Totally different set up, but just as if not more complex this time
  12. olafminesaw
    The interaction of the two storms and the ULL could lead to some nasty flooding. I don't like that models are starting to pick up on a stalled moisture feed
  13. olafminesaw
    It doesn't, last night's run of the Euro has a stronger blocking high over Humberto slowing it down and allowing 94L to be pulled into the coast by the ULL. Without Humberto 94L would have a higher chance of landfall
  14. olafminesaw
    It does seem like a landfall is becoming somewhat unlikely for 94L because it gets pulled back out to sea by 93L. Meanwhile 93L is too far out to have a decent chance of being pulled into the coast by 94L. The most likely landfall scenario is a combination of 93L being weaker than expected and more spacing between the systems allowing 94L to be pulled into the coast by the ULL
  15. olafminesaw
    Toeing the wedge but the phase diagrams seem to agree
  16. olafminesaw
    Bright sunshine across the Piedmont. Wasn't expecting that!
  17. olafminesaw
    Persistent little strip of drizzle. RAH could have the lowest high temp in the whole state today
  18. olafminesaw
    Back below average ACE
  19. olafminesaw
    Good point, there's a pretty big difference between the beginning and end of September climatologically. Also not a huge data set to draw firm conclusions on.
  20. olafminesaw
    Of the 22 systems since 1980 to pass within 100 miles of the British Virgin Islands in September, 5 made landfall in the us (22%). This feels like a reasonable benchmark based on model consensus, although as Wxwatcher007 says above, there is a high degree of uncertainty until a LLC develops. I think odds of this system never developing at all have gone up this morning with lots of shear potentially across the Carribean.
  21. olafminesaw
    Even with the GFS coming south to start the run, if I take it's position at hour 78: there have been 20 storms since 1980 to pass within 100 miles of that point in September, of which only 2 made landfall in the US, the rest recurved well east. The two exceptions are Hugo and Georges (1998). Georges moved through the heart of the Greater Antilles hitting every island along the way. It is the furthest south of this grouping in the Caribbean as well, so a track south of the islands would be unprecedented
  22. olafminesaw
    This coupled with the 12 Euro, which is way south and breaks up a weak system over Hispanola, means landfall odds have increased this afternoon (both for the Caribbean and Conus). Still no reason to be concerned just yet as we watch the windshield wiper effect.
  23. olafminesaw
    Fairly good agreement on a trough over the Eastern Conus in modeling in agreement with the overall troughy pattern that has been established, leads to higher than normal confidence in a recurve
  24. olafminesaw
    We should fall around 73.4 (based on some rough estimates), which would put us just outside the top 5. What is really impressive is the next lowest of this century is 2013 at 24.7, which ranks 22nd. We did it mostly through high temperatures remaining lower, with no particularly anomalous lows. That's the way to do August!
  25. olafminesaw
    For sure. We do tend to dry out this time of year, but soil moisture went from well above average to slightly below average. Could be some rain next week.
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