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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Encouraging to see temps in the mid 20s. Should stave off the *drip drip. Rates may be low to start with dry air/poor dynamics.
  2. olafminesaw
    We do tend to ignore the jet stream impact, which the models tend to underestimate as well. If we can get the storm to slow down a bit we would go from unfavorable jet dynamics as the GFS depicts (right side of the jet streak), to neutral/favorable.
  3. olafminesaw
    The big amped up solution we were seeing all the way up until yesterday afternoon would have cut all but the high elevations out of the possibility of significant snow. Unless we continue a significant trend towards even less phasing/faster, the majority of the subforum would certainly prefer the strung out solution. The big double digit snow totals for western NC through the I85 corridor was always going to be a thread the needle/low probability outcome anyway.
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    Looks a little more north to me, but I don't have maps for NC
  6. olafminesaw
    It seems to always be playing catch-up. For us in the triad QPF is the big question now as it seems more likely than not we will get mostly snow (although never count out the warm nose.). Usually the Euro over does it, so I'm guessing .5-1"
  7. olafminesaw
    Really close to the 2018 totals map
  8. olafminesaw
    I believe the 18z Canadian was also colder
  9. olafminesaw
    Yeah and I think that temperature gradient from the wedge is just going to enhance precip rates, especially wherever that sleet/snow line is
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  13. olafminesaw
    GEFS trending colder at the surface and aloft
  14. olafminesaw
    Canadian is all over the place, makes it difficult to take stock in
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    I nominate @NorthHillsWx to make a storm thread. I feel like this is your storm
  17. olafminesaw
    Something to watch, the warm nose currently isn't super strong, which kinda makes sense due to the favorable storm track. Dynamic cooling may help flip some areas along the changeover line back to snow when heavier rates/better dynamics set up. Need to watch the wraparound for a changeover as well
  18. olafminesaw
    Icy 6z Canadian, a bit warmer/more amped than other guidance
  19. olafminesaw
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  21. olafminesaw
    Feels like the EPS has been rock steady on a Danville to Richmond bullseye for days
  22. olafminesaw
    Pretty much where we want it. Sleet is inevitable
  23. olafminesaw
    The GFS is a big outlier regarding temps
  24. olafminesaw
    As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)
  25. olafminesaw
    A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers
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