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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Somewhat lower odds of a washout in the 10-14 day timeframe we are watching, but odds continue to increase for at least some rainfall
  2. olafminesaw
    Glued to every model cycle from here on out, we can reel this fantasy range rainstorm in
  3. olafminesaw
    The Mariana islands gets just about as many high end typhoons as anywhere else I nthe world. Saipan took a direct hit from a cat 5 back in 2018. I am guessing that Saipan didn't get much above cat 2 winds from this, with maybe some higher gusts. Good timing with the ERC.
  4. olafminesaw
    Some signs of a pattern change, but I fear this will just keep getting kicked back
  5. olafminesaw
    My forecast for Saturday is 94 with a dewpoint in the low 50s, flash drought conditions under any circumstances
  6. olafminesaw
    I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change
  7. olafminesaw
    Drought to worsen and fire conditions ramp up this weekend with warm temps, dewpoints in the low 50s and breezy conditions. Some signs of a more seasonally average shower/storm chances returning late next week. Hopefully the quick ramp up towards EL nino over the next few weeks will help to shake up the pattern and break down the ridge
  8. olafminesaw
    It also is peaking earlier than normal, so may be coming down towards moderate by Winter. Hard to say
  9. olafminesaw
    Probably somewhere in-between, although there's not a lot of analogs for a strong summer El Nino
  10. olafminesaw
    Yeah not looking good. Ensembles not much better
  11. olafminesaw
    Oof
  12. olafminesaw
    Lock it in
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    90% of the SE is in at least moderate drought for the first time since the drought monitor data began in 2000. Other years had more coverage of severe drought (2012, 2007, 2002), but the overall drought coverage is unprecedented.
  15. olafminesaw
    This one looks more accurate than the one u posted a few weeks ago
  16. olafminesaw
    Probably will be a bit quite for a while...unless the GFS is to be believed
  17. olafminesaw
    I feel like ceiling on this event was always high, but in recent years the SPC has moved away from their old approach of staying conservative and ramping up the categories until day of. Now they try and predict what the day 1 probabilities should be two to three days out. The old method they would have gone with an enhanced yesterday and then held off on a moderate this morning knowing the CAMs were showing the threat diminished.
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
    Florida may be America's armpit, but phoenix is America's air fryer.
  20. olafminesaw
    Seems like maybe the RDU hot spot got corrected?
  21. olafminesaw
    If nothing else I'm looking forward to waking up with temps in the mid 60s and dropping into the 40s by mid day. Don't get that very often. Also the fact we are even talking about the possibility of flakes on the backside of a front with a low end severe threat is pretty crazy.
  22. olafminesaw
    Hmm...
  23. olafminesaw
    Obviously I'd bet against snow, but the upcoming cold shot looks legit on most models
  24. olafminesaw
    Gotta lure out the bugs and then freeze them solid
  25. olafminesaw
    Snowfall totals now that snow chances have dropped to near zero until next winter
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