olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The new eyewall is very much open on the South and West side of the storm. Need to watch convective bursts to see if they can sustain all the way around the eye, or if shear keeps the eyewall open. For days the hurricane models have been showing the "halficane" look with dry air making it's way into the system, so that's kinda what I'd lean towards.
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I actually wonder if the ERC is nearly complete. This image was as of a couple hours ago
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Shear evident on IR, perhaps a bit more than expected at this point. But convection is fighting hard with a new burst wrapping around the center. On track for steady weakening, but a rapid expansion of the windfield.
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Wind field starting to expand a bit
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Is that one massive feeder band? Or another feature.
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Also been moving south a bit the past couple hours away from the dry air and shear, probably the biggest reason for the rapid improvement
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The theme of this year's hurricane season: cinnamon roll
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Seems to be structural changes rather than an ERC. No signs of a double wind maxima on recon. New convection is trying to wrap around the eye again,looks to be larger.
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Where the center makes landfall and even just a few miles to the right of center will get much lower surge. Check out this graphic from Ian
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Intense convection wrapping around the new eye
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No signs of shear, now that the new eye is established, should have another specimen by this afternoon. I suspect it will hit cat 5 again, but winds may continue to drop before thy go back up again
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I think just contracting based off radar. Does look less symmetrical but it's far from the radar site so hard to say
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One big difference is Katrina was already quite large when it reached cat 5. A medium/large major hurricane making landfall in the GOM is going to have tremendous surge potential regardless, but I am not sure the comparison is appropriate.
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Wow, eye really warming
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May be just a wobble but a bit more Eastward motion now. At least it might miss the built up barrier islands and brush the national park instead.
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That gradient is wild. Something like a 40 mb rise in pressure over about 7 miles
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The 6z Euro is a worst case track for Tampa. Makes landfall right around Clearwater.
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Gravity waves apparent as the sun rises
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Any idea how the blob of convection to Milton's NE may have an effect? (if any)
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Pressure falling like a rock. Winds up but not as dramatically
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Boom
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Yeah not good seeing it go through an ERC halfway across the Gulf.
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The waters it will be traveling over are more typical of mid September. No upwelling from Helene to speak of, especially with the track it's taking.
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The 6z ensembles well North of the 0z model consensus
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