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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    .75 QPF across the Eastern 2/3 of North Carolina, for both the GEFS and EPS. Reduced by 25% to get an idea of the footprint of snowfall = 6-10" snowfall at 15:1 ratios. Banding within that broad footprint will allow for 12-18". Some dry slotting may occur West/East of that band where "only" 3-6" falls. The footprint and magnitude of this general consensus will continue to shifts as models try to resolve the Dance of the ULL and developing powerful storm
  2. olafminesaw
    3-6"+feels like a good bet right now. 8-16" is within reach but models still have lots to resolve, so trying to stay reasonable about the more extreme solutions
  3. olafminesaw
    GFS is going to be a big hit, but again, I would tread with caution given the complexity of the interaction as the low bombs out and consolidated
  4. olafminesaw
    Changes mostly noise I think, which is good because it continues to be on the amplified end of the spectrum
  5. olafminesaw
    A bit of Fujiwara effect going on between the low forming in the Bahamas and along the coast. Could lead to either a track more to the East, or some pretty incredible totals if the Bhama low can swing the primary low back to the west end stall out
  6. olafminesaw
    Doesn't look much different to me so far.
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    My hourly forecast in Greensboro is showing 8". The highest I've seen this far out since moving here in 2018
  9. olafminesaw
    RGEM is a big hit
  10. olafminesaw
    I am thinking the sooner the trough digs and tilts negative the better shot the coastal low will have to become dominant and cause both lows to consolidate further west?
  11. olafminesaw
    I would want to be in the triangle from Rocky Mount to nags head to VA Beach for this storm
  12. olafminesaw
    NAM is A bit more positively tilted and faster.
  13. olafminesaw
    NAM has light snow breaking out from the VA border and North 10 AM Friday. Getting the party started early!
  14. olafminesaw
    Hope it works out better than this one (in all seriousness, that's a pretty reasonable map all things considered)
  15. olafminesaw
    0z vs 6z EPS is a nice uptrend
  16. olafminesaw
    One limiting factor I noticed this morning is the low is pretty sprawling to start and takes a while to tighten up. The low track of the Euro is close to ideal ideal but suffers from slower consolidation than the GFS (a little further north than we would like as well)
  17. olafminesaw
    Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy
  18. olafminesaw
    You know something is going right when the mid Atlantic forum starts stirring up trouble in here
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    He has a point, we are still in a relatively delicate position. However, spread will continue to narrow. If we can hold until Tommorow nights runs, we'll be feeling pretty good.
  21. olafminesaw
    Listen, if we have to worry about sleet cutting into our totals, we're talking some pretty epic totals.
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    Oh my...
  24. olafminesaw
    It serves as an appetizer to the rest of the globals, but is hot garbage
  25. olafminesaw
    There really aren't huge differences between the EUro and GFS, wouldn't take much to trend towards a big storm or towards nothing: EURO GFS
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