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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Not exactly your classic hurricane structure...
  2. olafminesaw
    It's going to be wild tomorrow afternoon, legit tropical storm conditions and 55 degrees. You almost have to consider the wind chill sigh Ian
  3. olafminesaw
    Looks like a recon plane is scheduled to head out at 7:30
  4. olafminesaw
    If these winds mix down to the surface, that's no bueno
  5. olafminesaw
    Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names
  6. olafminesaw
    To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone as far as landfall point (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect.
  7. olafminesaw
    For sure. I think 40-50 mph is possible, but much more than that is unlikely. The current forecasts don't seem to be calling for much in the way of wind, so it may catch some by surprise, although it seems because of what happened in Florida, many are at least weather aware.
  8. olafminesaw
    I'm growing somewhat concerned about the wind threat across the Piedmont. While sustained winds diminish, the HHHR and the hires Nam have gusts over 60 mph for much of the region, the GFS in the 40-60 mph range, and the Euro in the 30-40 mph range. There must be some synoptic scale features at play. Usually the HRRR does a good job of picking up on these, but we may not have a clear idea until tomorrow morning what's coming our way.
  9. olafminesaw
    HAFS makes landfall near Charleston as a borderline cat 1
  10. olafminesaw
    Largest TS force wind field at this latitude since Sandy? Could push some serious water into Savannah/charleston
  11. olafminesaw
    I also think the dry stable air is going to mitigate the threat of winds/flooding. Fresh water and coastal flooding will be a rather big deal for coastal SC though. The 18z Euro
  12. olafminesaw
    Yellow is 14", white 20"
  13. olafminesaw
    I feel like it's pretty normal for the highest surge to be pretty far from the center. Maybe Naples is actually pretty much in the highest surge zone
  14. olafminesaw
    Looks like they're going in for one more pass right before landfall.
  15. olafminesaw
    ,based on current radar trends surge may be worse in Cape Coral than Port Charlotte. Absolute highest surge may go between the two population centers.
  16. olafminesaw
    Based on radar, if trends continue, a landfall on Boca Grande seems likely. 8 miles or so south of the official track
  17. olafminesaw
    It's going to be really close. Should be there in about an hour. Plenty of time to make one last pass
  18. olafminesaw
    Seems to be more or less stair stepping towards the coast. More North the last few frames
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit
  21. olafminesaw
    Thank goodness for recon. This certainly doesn't look any stronger than a low end cat 4 on satellite
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah looking "weak" on that side on radar too. Seems to be becoming more uniform as we speak though
  23. olafminesaw
    The new eye is about 40 miles across. Still has some work to do, but the EWRC appears to be mostly complete
  24. olafminesaw
    Starting to see the new eyewall on satellite
  25. olafminesaw
    You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html
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