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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently
  2. The 12zHAFS nailed the evolution today if you flip through the IR frames. Like, shocking really. Gets convection ramping up again around midnight
  3. Recon finds a pressure of 980 mb or so and supports winds of 55-60 kts
  4. 45 kt surface winds recorded 200 miles or so West of the center (from the upper level recon flight), this thing is really starting to expand
  5. Indeed, looks pretty darn good all of a sudden
  6. It seems like regardless of how much the pressure drops, it's maxing out between 60-75 mph. Any pressure drops below 980 are primarily expanding the wind field
  7. Seems Nicole is going to need to get down to around 980-85 mb to reach hurricane strength. Of course this will be higher impact than a typical cat 1 due to it's size
  8. The HWRF doesn't begin to build a tropic core until this evening. I presume this will occur once Nicole begins to turn back to the south over warmer water, as long as dry air doesn't inhibit development
  9. The 4 pm discussion said it's still moving westward. I will say, watching the LLC in the short-term can be misleading, but still seems odd
  10. It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe.
  11. The Euro seems to really broaden the wind-field, without increasing max wind speed. Has a massive area of 35-45 mph winds, but probably would be a 50 mph landfall
  12. Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look
  13. Yep, the 6z Euro include with that trend. Pressure at landfall of 990-995 mb and strength of about 50 mph is my guess. A third landfall in Nova Scotia isn't out of the question as well, as per the GFS
  14. All things considered, a pretty high degree of confidence in a strong system from the EPS.
  15. It's pretty simple really...the GFS is on crack. A fairly weak low tracking across Florida, into the gulf, bringing areas of heavy rain, makes the most sense.
  16. GFS developed a TS only 84 hours out. May not be so far fetched this time
  17. Recurves sharply OTS after a brush with Hispaniola
  18. Yuuup. Hooks it west into Florida while growing enormous. Because that makes sense
  19. Okay...maybe not. Might just be the smoothest EWRC I've ever seen: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_19E/web/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html
  20. Seems like it's probably peaked and the EWRC should begin to weaken it soon
  21. From 38 to 58 in 3 hours. Feels good outside! Jacket in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon kind of weather is fantastic.
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