I bet she already is high end cat 4. The satellite loop showing on the CNN home page is a terrifying sight. Really shows the rapid recovery and symmetry of the eye
Per the NHC track, the worst may miss Canouan to the south as well. Which puts a few very tiny islands in it's path, the largest of which has about 3,000 inhabitants
Of the June/July TDs that formed in the general region the NHC has highlighted going back to 1990 max strength as follows:
TD 8
TS 9
CAT 1: 6
CAT 3 : 3
CAT 4 : 1
CAT 5 : 1
39% Reached hurricane strength
I don't have data to back it up, but I feel like May is one of our more feast or famine months, not quite in daily storm potential season, but any synoptic systems that we get could drop a bunch over a fairly wide area.
Most of the western Piedmont had now received 200-400% of the average rainfall month to date. GSO is now at 8.27", only needing 2.61" to surpass the all time May record set in 1905. The 6z GEFS has 2.3" through the end of the month, so very possible!
The CPC released the updated summer forecast last week. Probabilities below for the Piedmont:
Temp:
Highest 10% of years: 14.3%
Above average: 45.3%
Near average: 34.7%
Below average: 19.9%
Lowest 10% of years: 3.6%
Precip:
Highest 10% of years: 15.4%
Above average: 43.6%
Near average: 32.5%
Below average: 23.8%
Lowest 10% of years: 5.8%