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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. I bet she already is high end cat 4. The satellite loop showing on the CNN home page is a terrifying sight. Really shows the rapid recovery and symmetry of the eye
  2. Per the NHC track, the worst may miss Canouan to the south as well. Which puts a few very tiny islands in it's path, the largest of which has about 3,000 inhabitants
  3. Dew point records are a bit unreliable, but it seems GSO has hit a DP of 75 for the first time since 2005
  4. A saving grace for the islands could be the very small *core. Right now the track the entire core missing all the. Bigger islands.
  5. Although weakening systems into c America are somtimes the most disastrous in terms of impact from flooding
  6. I used this tool, which has a bunch of handy filters https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80
  7. Yeah this week's chances have really, uh, evaporated. Most will likely see some rain, but unlikely to move the needle.
  8. Of the June/July TDs that formed in the general region the NHC has highlighted going back to 1990 max strength as follows: TD 8 TS 9 CAT 1: 6 CAT 3 : 3 CAT 4 : 1 CAT 5 : 1 39% Reached hurricane strength
  9. Seems to be getting hit with some more substantial shear this morning
  10. I don't have data to back it up, but I feel like May is one of our more feast or famine months, not quite in daily storm potential season, but any synoptic systems that we get could drop a bunch over a fairly wide area.
  11. Amazing! Is this how it appeared to the naked eye, or are these enhanced a bit?
  12. Most of the western Piedmont had now received 200-400% of the average rainfall month to date. GSO is now at 8.27", only needing 2.61" to surpass the all time May record set in 1905. The 6z GEFS has 2.3" through the end of the month, so very possible!
  13. The cells seem a touch close together, will that correct as they move into a more favorable environment?
  14. SPC forecasted initiation around 22z. Now starting to see discreet cells pop up in Western OK
  15. What's this feature showing up on long range radar? The dry line?
  16. High risk expanded south slightly and wind driven moderate risk expanded east
  17. I've never seen a storm with such high DBZ values not get Severe warned. Quite odd! Must be just small hail.
  18. The CPC released the updated summer forecast last week. Probabilities below for the Piedmont: Temp: Highest 10% of years: 14.3% Above average: 45.3% Near average: 34.7% Below average: 19.9% Lowest 10% of years: 3.6% Precip: Highest 10% of years: 15.4% Above average: 43.6% Near average: 32.5% Below average: 23.8% Lowest 10% of years: 5.8%
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