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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I guess one of the biggest struggles is not really knowing what something halfway in-between these two solutions would even look like. I suspect mostly rain for most with a thump of snow on the back end, with the low tracking over the Apps and phasing late.
  2. olafminesaw
    Kind reminds me of cases of phasing in the past, where we had two widely different outcomes depending on if it happens or not. But this is like, in the reverse?
  3. olafminesaw
    Alright, the Euro is running. Ladies and gentlemen: get your big big/girl pants on, it's going to be a wild ride.
  4. olafminesaw
    Yeah, temps are super marginal, but that would change if there was more moisture. GEFS takes a step in that direction, so it's not too far from being a decent little event for the northern piedmont.
  5. olafminesaw
    The GFS legit has 50-60 mph gusts and 25 mph sustained as the storm pulls away and starts dropping powder. There'd be 3 foot drifts. What a weenie run for the ages.
  6. olafminesaw
    While we wait: This is a silly sounding. A weenie's nightmare
  7. olafminesaw
    The WPC leans more towards the GFS, FWIW
  8. olafminesaw
    The WPC agrees, the players are in place, it's hurry up and wait time
  9. olafminesaw
    I'm definitely slightly conflicted, trying to travel around the holidays. The 6z GFS drops a few inches on us the night before we leave (probably freezes solid under), snows on Christmas in PA, then we get dumped on again when trying to travel back. If that happened we'd probably be staying home for Christmas.
  10. olafminesaw
    If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the storm behind the storm being better for us. That's usually how it works out anyway.
  11. olafminesaw
    Y'all. Take a deep breath and step away from the models for a bit. We won't really know much about what's going to happen for another few days
  12. olafminesaw
    4 run trend
  13. olafminesaw
    I know I know, this one's free to access, otherwise I would of course have picked higher of kuchera or 10:1
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    Hmm, getting back in the game again as alluded to yesterday?
  17. olafminesaw
    Now hitting the south end of town
  18. olafminesaw
    It's frustrating, because at the surface this looks like it's setting up for something really good. Then it gets suppressed to oblivion
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, unfortunately southern stream systems have been getting squashed. Not much from ensembles to suggest optimism for this system right now, but as you say, bears watching. It's right in that optimum window where if the plinko chip jumps to the left, we're in business.
  20. olafminesaw
    The whole us freezes
  21. olafminesaw
    I also feel like the constant stream of systems prevents the blocking from ever progressing far enough East. Every low either gets squashed by the HP to the West or pulled north by the system ahead of it.
  22. olafminesaw
    Any snow before Christmas is bonus snow. Let's wait until then and see how the pattern shakes out, once the Arctic air has been established. If we continue to get pushes of cold air, we're bound to score eventually (even if we have to wait until mid January)
  23. olafminesaw
    Still a long shot on the table for the upcoming weekend
  24. olafminesaw
    Our next system to watch is this coming weekend. Looks suppressed for now, but definitely worth keeping an eye on:
  25. olafminesaw
    Don't know if I've ever seen an ensemble run this anomalous at this range
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