olafminesaw

My nearly 30 year old heat pump is not pleased

3.93" in the last hour

I don't have data to back it up, but I feel like May is one of our more feast or famine months, not quite in daily storm potential season, but any synoptic systems that we get could drop a bunch over a fairly wide area.

Amazing! Is this how it appeared to the naked eye, or are these enhanced a bit?

Most of the western Piedmont had now received 200-400% of the average rainfall month to date. GSO is now at 8.27", only needing 2.61" to surpass the all time May record set in 1905. The 6z GEFS has 2.3" through the end of the month, so very possible!

Quite a notch but no tor warning

The cells seem a touch close together, will that correct as they move into a more favorable environment?

SPC forecasted initiation around 22z. Now starting to see discreet cells pop up in Western OK

What's this feature showing up on long range radar? The dry line?

High risk expanded south slightly and wind driven moderate risk expanded east

I've never seen a storm with such high DBZ values not get Severe warned. Quite odd! Must be just small hail.

The CPC released the updated summer forecast last week. Probabilities below for the Piedmont: Temp: Highest 10% of years: 14.3% Above average: 45.3% Near average: 34.7% Below average: 19.9% Lowest 10% of years: 3.6% Precip: Highest 10% of years: 15.4% Above average: 43.6% Near average: 32.5% Below average: 23.8% Lowest 10% of years: 5.8%

About as strong of wording as you will see say 6 The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area.

Not bad, the warm sunny weather is making me not too jealous of the snow headed your way. I have made peace with summer and hope for some good thunderstorms this spring

My weeds sure are happy! Haven't really had any significant drought here since moving here in 2018. I like the rainy periods this time of year. If nothing else, it keeps the house comfortable without having to run the AC

Pretty much in line with what everyone else was saying:

The only interesting weather in the CONUS upcoming is the potent front in about 5 days. The GFS has about 500 miles to go from single digits in Wyoming to near 80 degrees in central Kansas. Of course it will not deliver meaningful arctic air to this side of the country. Because why would it?

Looking at Greensboro obs on weatherspark there was two freezing rain events in December, one freezing rain even in January one light snow ob in January, and a light snow ob and mixed bag event in February. Obviously none of the snow or sleet actually accumulated. But two instances of mood flakes that year

Some signs of a few non-accumulating pity flakes Saturday evening from the ULL. The really shocking thing is we haven't even had more than 30 minutes of frozen precip of any kind during the snow drought. I'm sure the same can't be said of the 90s drought.

You'll be back on March 12th, when the Pacific finally relaxes and we're on our way to 33 and rain. Just you wait!

Sigh...

Eh, the mean is a near perfect track and still, the probabilities aren't great. The overall setup is still rather poor. Still, we might luck into something

May happy hour be happy for once. Hard to stomach the big three indicies being favorable, including a 3 std dev negative AO resulting in the same old la Nina pattern. But I prefer to focus on the fact that we have a storm to track that isn't dead yet.