Hard to say what ratios will be like. But the bulk of the time that moisture and cold overlap (per the GFS anyway), Is pretty much ideal for dendrite growth. As for whether they get obliterated by the wind, no clue
Could have a band of heavy precip that cools the column and leads to a quicker changeover. Could drop a couple inches of snow in an hour, depending on the timing of the cold with the precip.
Ugh, thank you. Now it's just a matter of figuring out if it's a terrible idea to tackle frozen roads with AWD. It's going to be mostly highway, (RT19/I-79) which might be okay, depending on a number of factors.
Lol, the ULL rounds the corner like one of those fair rides that gives you whiplash. Probably something like that is the only way we can score in this pattern
Yeah it's kinda wild. Yesterday evening the GFS had the cold front not even arriving until late afternoon/evening. Now it's showing the cold entrenched and snow almost over by dinner time.
Any thoughts on travel Friday afternoon/early evening? Seems temps will be in the low 20s at that time, although the timing of the front is still TBD. At what temp would you expect roads to freeze solid?
Hey remember when models were spitting out way below normal temps for pretty much all of North America from Christmas to new years? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
The NAM looks decent to me WRT handling the energy out west. We do need this to dig quite a bit more and/or phase sooner than the GFS to have a shot at significant accumulations.
Always hard to know if any change is the start of a trend or just random variability. But when one model takes a step towards the other and the other model doubles down, the odds certainly skew towards the start of a trend.