olafminesaw

The GFS is definitely improved, but still a Miller B mess.

I don't think we're really that much further from a positive outcome than we were yesterday. What we're seeing though, is how many things have to go right, with little or no below average temps to pull from anywhere in North America. A perfect low track, perfect placement & timing of the 50/50, sufficiently strong Canadian HP, etc. A perfect setup up top still means living on a razors edge WRT track.

It's like 1,000 miles north of the Euro. I wouldn't expect anything from that track

Yeah, I mean snowfalls of 8" or more are extremely rare in the piedmont. Usually, if we get storm broadly like the Euro, the piedmont gets a few inches of snow followed by a flip to rain, while DC gets pumeled.

The backside death band is pure weenie fuel. This is what I mean when I said don't get attached to any one solution...

Same general vibe as the EPS. A ton of spread though

This looks really good IMO. Expect big swings in the next few days with the fast flow. Give it until Monday or so before becoming attached to any one solution.

Gotta watch the High placement/strength. Could be a snow to ice type storm, if it doesn't cut.

Put another way, the odds of going completely snowless in the second half of January is about 40%.

Average historical daily odds of measurable snow within the following date ranges in Greensboro: Jan 1-7 4.3% Jan 8-14 5.3% Jan 15-21 6.1% Jan 22-28 5.9% J 29 - F4 4.9%

I'm not in love with the more Miller Bish look the GFS has going on, but this still looks like it could be a threat

I've never seen this type of graphic before! Is this something experimental?

Yeah, definitely a long shot but I think we could too. This look is the kind of thread the needle that sometimes works in January (even with the lack of any real cold air mass)

Extrapolating the 384 hr GFS is an excercise in futility, but this would be a really good look:

Definitely less moisture behind the front on the morning models. We'll see but the problem is there's really only a 1-2 hr window for snow now and not as much moisture in that window either. It does seem the precip type panels are underestimating how quickly the changeover will take place, but this kinda ends up as a wash due to melting at those temps. I think .1" QPF is a pretty reasonable bet. Which we can't assume will be much more than 10:1 ratios. The HRRR does seem to have some banding features which may yield some more localized totals. For that reason I would go with .5-1.5" with localized 2"+

Worth monitoring, but I feel like we can weigh it lightly until it gets inside about 12-18 hrs. That being said, the afternoon trends have been to diminish snowfall somewhat.

Looks like a fine day for a brisk sail on Lake Erie Friday afternoon, with 20 foot waves, negative 20 windchills and 50 mph sustained winds!

And it's sandwiched up against a bomb that could produce LP records in that region (don't have time to research, but could drop into the 960s). The wind field is incredible

At minimum it's 36 hours lead time. So probably they will go up this evening or tommorow morning Edit: at maximum 36 hours

This is a weenie model, but it shows the potential that exists for some really heavy snow at the backend of the front. Even if it's short lived, it could get us to 2" in short order. I do suspect that moisture will be cut off quickly, once any dynamic lift shuts off.

TBH, we may not really know how much will fall until about 8-12 hours before the event. Mesoscale models will be key. It does seem that the door has been closed on more than 3" though

Definitely a thread the needle/depend on a stronger storm to produce it's own cold kind of setup. Not exactly our bread and butter, but what else do we have to track?

I agree. People knock 10:1 maps, but it's really much better for comparing run to run differences. Even so it probably will have some changeover timing issues, with how quick the front is moving through.

Right, I guess that's the issue is technically the NWS forecast is correct. But it makes it look like the temp will drop to 10 in the early morning before rising to 33 in the afternoon. The only way I can think to present this better is to make the low match the high and put the little arrow indicator showing that the temp falls throughout the day. (None of this really matters, I just think it's wonky)

Lol, yeah, I've noticed the Thursday night forecast has been broken all day. Or is this just how it works and is pulling the afternoon temperature based on when the cut off timeframe they set for the low temp? Either way, seems like a good way to confuse the public.