olafminesaw

Needless to say, a more progressive look than the 12z GFS, with that track, is a near certainty

And the GFS takes that look and dials it up to 11. What a run. Gosh, this is so sensitive to small changes, I hate tracking things like this

Even with the exotic look and perfect thread the needle track...we still get 90% rain, followed by a little non accumulating snow showers.

Just gotta get that happy medium...

Mt Washington getting spicy:

If you want a taste of winter, just head on up to Mt Washington!

There's a lot of us

January finished 6.4 degrees above average in January, the warmest since 2006. Honestly this is pretty surprising, considering we didn't have many particularly warm days, and plenty of fairly chilly ones. Raleigh finished 8.2 degrees above average, the warmest since 1950, and the 7th warmest in 136 years of records!

With the way models have trended, the area to look for a surprise would be east of 95/south of rocky mount, to near the coast. Would require colder air than modeled, but I think we've seen that so far.Dry air will likely win out for the Piedmont

Alright. Which one of you did this?

So...six more weeks of 35 and rain!

Cold rain sounding to add to the depression pile. So close, but so far

So, I've seen the headlines about record cold in China. To what extent does Arctic air being dumped on the other side of the globe limit the potential for a cold air mass in NA? And is this driven/predicted by -PNA/ENSO, or other indices?

12z cams:

Hey, look, the perfect storm track! And....cold rain

I think there's a chance of a little back end snow with the Friday system. A long shot perhaps, but this is one of those cases where the coastal plain is just as likely (or even more likely) to see flakes as the Piedmont. Actually the storm track is pretty ideal, the cold just arrives too late. So, some positive trends could make things a little interesting. Need to root for the development of a stronger LP as it tracks across the gulf states. Yes I'm desperate

Holy cow.

Eric Webb mentioned this one last night. https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1619926751924326403?s=20&t=qh-NGg8FezTFOanly9T9rg

Yeah...the issue with the runs so far this morning is the storm has become more progressive, which doesn't allow the cold to move into place. No shocker really

I really do think that advanced statistical analysis is the way forward in making more accurate forecasts. I think another component is using normal distributions to help account for climo. This would be especially helpful if these distributions could be able to change based on current indices or other correlations developed through AI. Many times modeling spits out a solution to the far right of the distribution and everyone gets all excited, but more often than not, the error is to the left then to the right.

No real strong CAD like we were seeing in some model runs. But a higher chance of all snow after the frontal passage. I worry in this sort of setup though, that surface temps will be warm and precip rates unimpressive. Usually that's a bad combo. But probably the best chance since the December PV flop. Chance of seeing flakes : 65% A coating + : 35% 1"+ : 15%

I feel like not much has changed over the past 24 hrs or so of models, gotta keep things in perspective. Something to watch, is it seems like although the cold and moisture are going to link up somewhere, the cold at the surface isn't nearly looking as impressive as many model runs yesterday. Just something to watch in terms of trends. Pretty common to see air masses moderate around these parts until not even a thread the needle storm track gets the job done.

The Euro slides the high too far east and the storm is too amped, so sad trombones. Close to a raging sleet storm again, but illustrates how delicate the 0z Euro progression really was.

Yep! Precip type map show zr, but here's the sounding. This kinda of setup is extremely rare.