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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Just missed the heavier returns. An appetizer for this evening I hope
  2. olafminesaw
    12z vs 18z soundings, slightly shallower, but holding strong
  3. olafminesaw
    The HRRR just keeps trending colder. I don't think it's out of the question the final band is mixed with sleet. In fact that is what it is showing on P-type map
  4. olafminesaw
    Perhaps, although we seem to be entering the dry slot now. May backfill a bit, but I think by 12-1pm precip will be very light until the backside band swings through. Maybe we get some sleet in that band as well (let's hope so)
  5. olafminesaw
    Yesterday's NAM was about 10 degrees too warm to current temp
  6. olafminesaw
    The QPF thing is upsetting because we could have easily had 3-4" of sleet had we gotten the moisture. Instead the heavy stuff waits until we flip to ZR
  7. olafminesaw
    HRRR showing low 20s in the triad as that band of heavy ZR comes through this evening. Pretty extreme stuff
  8. olafminesaw
    How is that even possible? Must be some kind of freezing drizzle showing up at ground at ground level
  9. olafminesaw
    That is just typical of this storm. Just barely over the line right as the precip starts
  10. olafminesaw
    Wet bulb temp https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/wet-bulb
  11. olafminesaw
    Nothing yet in South Greensboro. Moisture finally building in though
  12. olafminesaw
    It's a testament to the wedge how the column. Is slowly moistening but the dewpoint dropping.
  13. olafminesaw
    Even if it's not showing precip, freezing drizzle can still accumulate on surfaces
  14. olafminesaw
    Soundings are almost identical but the HRRR depicts differently on the precip type maps
  15. olafminesaw
    Check out the warm nose this morning in Arkansas
  16. olafminesaw
    Models had been showing later for the heavy moisture to arrive. That dinnertime start time was likely based on light precip possibilities and also accounts for trying to get people off the road in case it starts early
  17. olafminesaw
    The latest HRRR brings onset much earlier.
  18. olafminesaw
    What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno
  19. olafminesaw
    Over a third of the American population is now under a winter storm warning
  20. olafminesaw
    https://tinyurl.com/ypmmjduh Lots of fun data to play around with here
  21. olafminesaw
    These are for Greensboro
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    Worst case 90th percentile map from RAH
  24. olafminesaw
    This seems plausible with the possibility of that cutoff shifting north or south
  25. olafminesaw
    Unfortunately the dry slot may mean freezing drizzle early that would otherwise be sleet. In general global models struggle with QPF distribution,so while I don't think the cutoff of heaviest precip is nailed down, I would tend to disregard the way the globals broad brush uniform heavy precip
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