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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    Wet bulb temp running 4 degrees below forecast at GSO
  3. olafminesaw
    We are relying on lift from the WAA to wring moisture out after the frontal passage. Since our system remains weak, it only will produce light precip
  4. olafminesaw
    N and West of 85 looking pretty dry. My gut is somewhere between Raleigh/Rocky Mount/Greenville will do well as well as the northern foothills. Hires models this morning have trended in that direction as well
  5. olafminesaw
    Can you spot the dry slot?
  6. olafminesaw
    Around Valentine's Day features a cutter on all models. Seems like some potential for CAD/messy ice situation depending on track/ridge placement. Also could feature borderline severe if the low tracks across New England instead of PA
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    The latest GRAF is also super light with precip. I don't think that the triad is going to get more than a dusting, based on the trend on the short range models
  9. olafminesaw
    Sad trombone noises
  10. olafminesaw
    Speaking of which, the HRRR joins many other models in painting the southern band directly over Guilford county. Schrödinger's snow band if you will.
  11. olafminesaw
    Putting all my money on wherever the HRRR doesn't have the band
  12. olafminesaw
    The hires RGEM killed it on the last two storms. Especially the one two weekends ago, but here's a run from Friday that did fairly well as well
  13. olafminesaw
    RAP illustrates my thoughts. Need to be able to get moisture and the cold to push far enough south, before cold/dry air shuts off the moisture. Moisture North of the warm front may be somewhat limited but concentrated in a band or two that may over perform. The RAP is a bit further north than the rest of guidance, so I would expect the green zone to set up right along I85
  14. olafminesaw
    Some pretty insane banding showing up on the hires RGEM
  15. olafminesaw
    Actually I would say Eastern Tennessee is the King of the warm nose and North Carolina is the court Jester
  16. olafminesaw
    One reason we are seeing less potential in NC is a small warm nose showing up on short range models. It was looking like a changeover to snow at around 35 yesterday but now right around freezing for the changeover with some ZR mixed in
  17. olafminesaw
    Some models showing a little light ZR as well. The pavement will still be holding some of the cold we've had especially in the shade so roads could certainly be slick
  18. olafminesaw
    Definitely seeing most models back off a bit this morning. Still a decent threat north of the VA border. A dusting to half an inch possible North of 85 and may include the Triangle if everything goes right
  19. olafminesaw
    The Euro AI has been very consistent in showing a maximum along the VA border
  20. olafminesaw
    The AI GFS looks nice too
  21. olafminesaw
    Yeah it's great to see that we could get accumulating snow even with the less amplified solutions knowing that a more amplified look would increase rates and crash temps even faster. That is, if the trough can stay sufficiently far south
  22. olafminesaw
    Of course, Kuchera will be more accurate, but that's still pretty sweet. I hope somehow Raleigh gets 3"+ just for the memes
  23. olafminesaw
    Can you please schedule a surgery for December 25?
  24. olafminesaw
    Yep! Hard to ignore the trends, going to come down to temps/rates at this point
  25. olafminesaw
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