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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Merry Christmas
  2. olafminesaw
  3. olafminesaw
    Part of me doesn't want our streak to end on a dusting. The Triad and Raleigh should be too dry to have any accumulation, but possibly a dusting for the East side of Charlotte and areas to the north and East (Albemarle, Rockingham, Salisbury)
  4. olafminesaw
    It would seem we are likely going to be in the wait for the January pattern change after all. Eric Webb seems a little more optimistic this time around at least, thinking there's about a 50/50 chance of extended cold periods in the long term, vs staying a more typical la Nina torch pattern
  5. olafminesaw
    Beyond 7 days looks like a great pattern for interior New England upcoming. Which is to say, not a great pattern for us. Maybe some CAD potential,but the southern stream interaction is too far NE.
  6. olafminesaw
    Ultimately it gets squashed, but this is interesting
  7. olafminesaw
    Funky cloud formation in PA
  8. olafminesaw
    Winters with measurable snowfall in December at GSO average 2.5 degrees below average for the month with a good deal of variance from -8.4 i ln 1989 to +4.0 in 1998. Not sure what to make of this statistic as it includes a few extreme outliers and mostly slightly below normal months. Obviously cold air is a good thing but our usual 1 in three chance of measurable snowfall is not necessarily a significantly increased probability based on the pattern ahead.
  9. olafminesaw
    GEFS suggests the cold pattern continues in the long range after a short relaxation
  10. olafminesaw
  11. olafminesaw
    A Dec 2018 redux
  12. olafminesaw
    I think the one after is the one to watch. At least outside the mountains
  13. olafminesaw
    Notably, variability up until Thanksgiving and then stays below average temps all the way to the end of the run.
  14. olafminesaw
    A pretty wild elevation dependent snow event coming for NE PA, the forecast is calling for 1-2" for Scranton at about 1,000 feet of elevation and for a foot of snow above 2,000 feet. That would be torture!
  15. olafminesaw
    Feels like the last time cold air made it over the mountains without moderating considerably was the 2022 Christmas arctic blast. Certainly nothing with any staying power.
  16. olafminesaw
    I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of threats.
  17. olafminesaw
    We may have an opportunity at freezing Tommorow night, to avoid the record. Usually we expect to have dropped into the mid 20s by now
  18. olafminesaw
    Not at any of the long term climate stations. Probably some isolated stations have dropped to freezing.
  19. olafminesaw
    Also seems to be annular.The only annual cyclone I can think of this season
  20. olafminesaw
    The core very much intact after interacting with the island. Successfully completed an ERC right before landfall
  21. olafminesaw
    With the Eye going directly over then may have missed the worst of the surge. The small villages on the north end of the island on the other hand...
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    The GEFS illustrated the two scenarios well from an intensity perspective. Still need to watch and see if models trend back East.
  24. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/PivotalWeather/status/1856751025610203429 Weenies rejoice! The Euro now goes out to 360 hrs on Pivotal Weather
  25. olafminesaw
    Agreed. All major models (Euro, Icon GFS, UKMET), now make landfall somewhere in Central America. A track into the Gulf after landfall is now more of a 50/50 proposition at this point as well.
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