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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Reminds me of miller Bs back when I lived in DC, the storm would skip over us and then blast NJ
  2. olafminesaw
    The wrap around light snow is starting to pivot into wake county. May only affect the Northern part of the county and will be relatively minor but I think will lead to some light accumulation in spots
  3. olafminesaw
    Additional QPF. Raleigh may end up with half an inch or so this evening
  4. olafminesaw
    From Raleigh N and East there may be a little wrap-around/back-building snow as well
  5. olafminesaw
    Solid coating in Stokesdale
  6. olafminesaw
    That cut-off across Guilford county
  7. olafminesaw
    Yeah, dewpoint at 36 is not ideal. With the heavier precip expected to stay to the north, I would be a little surprised if we got even a dusting at this point (still should get some light snow this afternoon to set the mood at least)
  8. olafminesaw
    18z models
  9. olafminesaw
    Already down to 38 in Greensboro. Dewpoint 33
  10. olafminesaw
    Models more or less hold steady overnight. Temps going to be an issue even as the heavier snow moves through, holding in the mid 30s in the Triad per model consensus. Probably would be a bit colder in the heaviest bands, but if the better dynamics are north of the VA border as the Euro and RGEM show, we could get blanked again
  11. olafminesaw
    If I were a betting man I'd say the RGEM probably has the best handle on this. Looking back it more or less nailed the last system 48 hours out (just a couple counties too far south)
  12. olafminesaw
    I'm inclined to agree, although as we get towards the middle of December, suppression becomes more and more likely form a climo standpoint
  13. olafminesaw
    Canadian and UKMET both join the GFS with a more robust system. Both are a little further north though with more temp/mixing issues
  14. olafminesaw
    GFS is still more or less alone with the more amplified look, but it has trended towards something intriguing
  15. olafminesaw
    Looks like a great upslope event too for our mountain friends
  16. olafminesaw
    Dewpoints actual vs HRRR at 3 pm: GSO -10 CLT -1 RAH -9 ROA -0 This tells me the warm front to the south has not advanced as far north as modeled. If this continues I would expect the rain/snow line as well as the heavier rates to shift south, although too early too have any confidence in this scenario based on OBS
  17. olafminesaw
    A bit of good news, dewpoints running a few degrees lower then forecast this afternoon
  18. olafminesaw
    Soundings for Guilford county, just north, and just south. Truly could go either way at this point
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    The North trend is back better than ever. Looks like a great even for the central/Southern VA Piedmont. Still some hope for the Northern NC Piedmont, but fading
  21. olafminesaw
    Seems reasonable
  22. olafminesaw
    Overall not a good set of runs at 18z for the I40 corridor. Teetering on the edge, so hopefully things will swing back south overnight
  23. olafminesaw
  24. olafminesaw
    It's been good to see the trend towards a juicier system. At the same time we walk a tightrope where the system maybe trending North pushing the rain snow line north of the VA border. This may not get resolved until precip is falling here in the battle zone (Northern NC Piedmont). Looks great up your way regardless
  25. olafminesaw
    I think the RGEM depicts how this will play out with the totals south of the VA border being rate dependent (a dusting for many but locally 2")
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