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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Seems to be strengthening around the solar minima fighting back shear with convection then levels out as soon as convection starts to die down during the daytime.
  2. olafminesaw
    HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall
  3. olafminesaw
    Yup ...
  4. olafminesaw
    Yeah recon just found 988, so still fairly decent intensification which is quite impressive given how sheared it looks Also a nice little core evident on microwave:
  5. olafminesaw
    Yeah the center is squarely under the convective burst ongoing at the moment, would expect another substantial drop on the next pass
  6. olafminesaw
    Whoa
  7. olafminesaw
    Landfall right along the FL/AL line seems like the best bet right now
  8. olafminesaw
    Who would have thought as of a year or two ago the NHC would already be explicitly using AI models as part of their forecast in 2026 (courtesy of Google, of all entities)
  9. olafminesaw
    Yeah, convection will likely win the battle and pull/consolidate the llc, but it may take time (12+ hrs) before this really starts taking off
  10. olafminesaw
    It's easy to forget because of our unprecedented streak of strengthening hurricanes at landfalls in the GOM, but I remember how in the early 2000s it felt inevitable that significant weakening would occur at landfall along the GOM coast
  11. olafminesaw
    Piedmont split looking strong! At least we won't wiff this one right?
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    And the GFS has folded like a house of cards
  14. olafminesaw
    The GFS is so bad it has quite literally been replaced by AI
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    Depending on the track, shear could be a net neutral, even allowing for strengthening through landfall as the shear vector is aligned with the storms track if it tracks more to the East/faster.
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
    NBM for the next week. I'm getting de ja vu
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    0.0" so far and less than .25" forecast for the next seven days
  23. olafminesaw
    Dang Nola. Not many major hurricanes cross the date line
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
    Since operational intensity was borderline and it's not really a sampling issue, I don't really see how they would bother. I mean, that's not overwhelming data for reanalysis to circumvent the operational intensity, IMO. Basically, after further review, the ruling on the field stands is the most likely verdict
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