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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Yeah, convection will likely win the battle and pull/consolidate the llc, but it may take time (12+ hrs) before this really starts taking off
  2. olafminesaw
    It's easy to forget because of our unprecedented streak of strengthening hurricanes at landfalls in the GOM, but I remember how in the early 2000s it felt inevitable that significant weakening would occur at landfall along the GOM coast
  3. olafminesaw
    Piedmont split looking strong! At least we won't wiff this one right?
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    And the GFS has folded like a house of cards
  6. olafminesaw
    The GFS is so bad it has quite literally been replaced by AI
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    Depending on the track, shear could be a net neutral, even allowing for strengthening through landfall as the shear vector is aligned with the storms track if it tracks more to the East/faster.
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
  11. olafminesaw
    NBM for the next week. I'm getting de ja vu
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    0.0" so far and less than .25" forecast for the next seven days
  15. olafminesaw
    Dang Nola. Not many major hurricanes cross the date line
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    Since operational intensity was borderline and it's not really a sampling issue, I don't really see how they would bother. I mean, that's not overwhelming data for reanalysis to circumvent the operational intensity, IMO. Basically, after further review, the ruling on the field stands is the most likely verdict
  18. olafminesaw
    National blend of models forecast for the next week
  19. olafminesaw
    Womp womp
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    El nino already starting to push an active southern jet stream down your way over the next couple weeks.
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
  24. olafminesaw
    One rather strange thing about Polo is despite multiple ERCs/structural changes it remains a relatively compact hurricane. In fact the code has remained roughly the same size throughout its life
  25. olafminesaw
    Does this count as an excusal slip for me to leave work early?
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