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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected.
  2. I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking in canada
  3. I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston.
  4. Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on)
  5. For a big storm, fast flow/stream interaction to far East and two much Northern stream energy/Great lakes low are all working against us. Working for us is legit cold (if transient), and plenty of Gulf moisture to tap into if the Southern stream can get going. I feel the 6z GFS weak clipper type system is out best chance and may not really get resolved on models until a couple days before the storm. It helps to know we've already had some success this year with a similar system.
  6. Anything beyond day 5 is a crapshoot. Check out the differences at 6 days between the Euro and GFS
  7. Yeah, I lived in northern VA at the time and remember coming back from Christmas in Western PA, expecting to see several inches of snow, only to find a dusting. It was crazy because they really ramped up the forecast totals just a day or two before the storm. I think model accuracy has really improved since then
  8. I hate to say it, but if the HRRR is to believed,the mountains need to watch out for a somewhat significant flash flood threat this evening into tommorow
  9. And the Euro AI is much different with some impressive cold the week before Christmas
  10. Last night's windchill of 10 degrees at GSO is the coldest this early in the season since 1989, at least per IEM
  11. It's not quite there but the Euro tries to develop a secondary wave behind the front on Wednesday
  12. I'm sure you're right. We had steady wind throughout the night and stayed steady throughout the night at 39 until around 6 am when it suddenly rose to 43. I think the wind shifted to a more Westerly component, which brought the higher few points.
  13. I honestly can't think of another time when temps have risen overnight without any cloud cover or precip. Usually ahead of the front there's at least scattered precip and thick cloud cover. There's a lot of dry air to our SE which is odd too. I guess arctic fronts behave differently than a traditional cold front.
  14. The front Tommorow should be kinda fun. High temp around mid morning in the triad, that doesn't happen very often
  15. A remarkably even temp distribution across the state, only a couple degrees warmer near the coast than the western Piedmont,with most everyone between 15 and 25 degrees as the low. Low temp of 21 in Wilmington is colder than Boston at 28
  16. The analog that I've heard a lot is '13-'14 which also had some wild December swings before a snowy second half of the winter. It did not have a December cold snap to speak of like this year however.
  17. Part of me doesn't want our streak to end on a dusting. The Triad and Raleigh should be too dry to have any accumulation, but possibly a dusting for the East side of Charlotte and areas to the north and East (Albemarle, Rockingham, Salisbury)
  18. It would seem we are likely going to be in the wait for the January pattern change after all. Eric Webb seems a little more optimistic this time around at least, thinking there's about a 50/50 chance of extended cold periods in the long term, vs staying a more typical la Nina torch pattern
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