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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Add it to the pile of cases where the column was just a few degrees too warm all the way up. Still it's far enough out that it could certainly change.
  2. olafminesaw
    It sounds crazy after the warmth late this week, but gotta still watch this coming Saturday for a little light freezing precip, with the high locked in and moisture running along the a warm front.
  3. olafminesaw
    Based on AccuWeather forecasts the piedmont will be near record warm for February: GSO: +7.8, 1.1 degrees below the record RAH: +8.6, .5 degrees below the record
  4. olafminesaw
    A good bit of discussion happening on the storm2k forum. Freddy is a beast!
  5. olafminesaw
    Look at that lift right at the dendrite growth zone, lol! Could be a fun little squall line, albeit sub-severe
  6. olafminesaw
    Actually in Greensboro, 90-91 had two ZR/Sleet events (as well as one period of light snow) and 91-92 had one light zr event (mid February). So this year would be truly unprecedented if no more frozen fell through the end of the winter.
  7. olafminesaw
    Starting to see a signal for a CAD event around the last week of the month. It's kinda more shocking we haven't had anything close to frozen from CAD this year than that we haven't had any snow. This time of year, cold rain is the more likely outcome though.
  8. olafminesaw
    Looks like there's going to be a lot of cold air in Canada for once, but nothing to force it South
  9. olafminesaw
    I will take my token flakes and run:
  10. olafminesaw
    *sigh...
  11. olafminesaw
    Any analogs you can think of for this sort of ZR event? I figure there isn't really a chance for this to occur below 1,500 ft or so
  12. olafminesaw
    Not good trends on the overnight models for anyone east of the mountains. No cold air to speak of. Too far North and too weak.
  13. olafminesaw
    Yeah, especially since I feel we've seen stronger ULLs get tugged further north/inland (and vice versa). Also the potential is limited because the western Piedmont and northern foothills will likely sit in the dry slot for a while
  14. olafminesaw
    Thermals are kinda trash, but a nice track for the piedmont that run
  15. olafminesaw
    This is right under a heavy band in Virginia as the back end rolls through. Would the column cool more than depicted in this case? Probably. But there just needs to be a deeper cold source to make this workable
  16. olafminesaw
    Really what we need to be tracking (with respect to low elevation snow)is the 1000-500mb 540 thickness line. The ULL is weak, so it never gets cold enough on the Euro, even with the better track compared to the GFS
  17. olafminesaw
    The Euro looking similar through 54, perhaps a touch south. Not expecting a step towards the stronger GFS solution this run
  18. olafminesaw
    Makes me wonder how many people have called to whatever gov agency about a weather balloon they spotted
  19. olafminesaw
    The trough that will become our ULL is currently pushing through New Mexico
  20. olafminesaw
    UKMET weaker with the ULL
  21. olafminesaw
    The stronger ULL yields much better back side dynamic bands of precip. Small changes made a big difference. I don't think we're done just yet.
  22. olafminesaw
    GFS largely the same I think. Seems to be a bit more consolidated with the ULL, but mostly noise.
  23. olafminesaw
    Right now it's looking like the most likely to get a surprise in the lowlands is somewhere in the region from central Alabama, up into northern Georgia and Eastern TN. This is an area that often seems to miss out on the big coastal storms, so that would be a big win for them if it pans out. Still the ongoing caveats about localized banding, dynamics etc. In those areas.
  24. olafminesaw
    The TT algorithm is suspect to say the least...
  25. olafminesaw
    I think the backend with the ULL swinging through is the best hope for many. Lately, runs have been showing a dry slot and not enough surface cold, but banding could develop with a stronger ULL.
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