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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Major by GA standards anyway:
  2. olafminesaw
    Oh my gosh. I think we made it through a whole winter without it being brought up (or warm temps leading up to an event). That at least is one good thing about this winter!
  3. olafminesaw
    That's fair. I feel like it's really hard to gauge objectively honestly. Some storms that, for example were showing a major snowstorm for Pittsburgh 5 days out, shifted to Minnesota/northern Wisconsin. In this scenario, it feels like the models got it right, but that's just because we got rain either way. It does seem like the models struggled with temps though. A lot of storms went from showing a decent region of snow in the cold sector of the storm, but this shrunk as it got into the medium range.
  4. olafminesaw
    Temps in the upper 30s at night time? Moderate rates? Perfect track required? What could go wrong?
  5. olafminesaw
    I gotta say though, the mountains are certainly still in the game. The 0z EPS and 6z GEFS both have a fairly strong signal around the 17th/18th.
  6. olafminesaw
    If nothing else, perhaps this season has beaten through our collective thick skulls that 5 day+ op runs are meaningless. At least until December, when collective amnesia sets in and that weenie map crack becomes irresistible again
  7. olafminesaw
    Seems to me like we keep getting lows that cut to the great lakes, and kick back the arrival of cold and in turn, lead to another bad storm track.
  8. olafminesaw
    About a 20 degree gradient across Guilford county right now. Winds blowing from the South in Alamance and NNE in Rockingham.
  9. olafminesaw
    Yeah, hopefully something the models can resolve with a little more lead time. Just two major players on the board!
  10. olafminesaw
  11. olafminesaw
    Looking pretty good, cold+moisture = a chance, even with climo against us
  12. olafminesaw
    Perhaps a storm threat sooner rather than later?
  13. olafminesaw
    An all time record snowfall for Augusta in March? Why not...
  14. olafminesaw
    Models are back to being more aggressive with the non-convective wind gusts across the Piedmont, with gusts possibly to 50 mph+. Starting to look like this may be the bigger story than severe weather, for NC anyway.
  15. olafminesaw
    Gosh, I feel for y'all, looks like mode spread 3-5 days out, not 24-48 hours out!
  16. olafminesaw
    *Wedge Watch* The GFS has the Triad in the low 70s Friday afternoon, while the hires NAM keeps temps in the mid to upper 40s. I think I can count on a drizzly miserable Friday
  17. olafminesaw
    The Triad gets a 3-5" snow after March 10th about every 15 years (2018, 1993, 1981, 1974, 1972, 1940). The latest 6" storm on record was March 9th 1960
  18. olafminesaw
    I would imagine they're still nailing down the area that will be the highest threat. Right now the I-85 corridor, from Atlanta to Charlotte, is looking to be the highest threat and should be in the enhanced tomorrow. A wide region has 40-50kt sustained winds at 925mb, which wouldn't have trouble mixing to the surface. As for tornadoes, it seems hodographs are showing somewhat more unidirectional shear than optimal (more hockey stick shaped than curved), but I could be wrong.
  19. olafminesaw
    Starting to become somewhat concerned about the wind threat Friday afternoon/evening. All the globals have around 50 mph gusts across the Piedmont. Could very well be overdone, but a pretty wide wind field, regardless of track.
  20. olafminesaw
    The CPC agrees
  21. olafminesaw
    Don't see a 979 mb bomb over the Apps very often...
  22. olafminesaw
    Would be nice not to have to use the AC until April for once.
  23. olafminesaw
  24. olafminesaw
    Yesterday's high of 81 in GSO, ties the all time record for February and the low of 63 ties the all time max-min temp for February.
  25. olafminesaw
    Perhaps one last dance around March 2nd... nothing to lose, little to gain.
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