olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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spin ups possible outside the main threat region even with little or no instability with curved hodographs
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It's a good thing the line of storms will roll through by about 2pm for most of us. Could be a much more significant day for us if the front were faster (as it will be East of 95) I think the synoptic winds will be the big story, not so much the squall line, especially West of 85. I could see a few spin up tornadoes, in the favored region (mt airy, to Roanoke)
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The GFS Is showing gusts to 60 mph on Wednesday, while other models are much more reasonable. Should expect gusts in the mid 40s, but a big I difference between 40 and 50 mph gusts.
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EURO and Euro AI feature suppression. Certainly not the Barney cold as needed, to give wiggle room, about as "thread the needle" as a system can be. The only reason it snows on the GFS is it is able to produce it's own cold and draw down the colder air aloft.
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Nifty new graphic from IEM showing trends in drought status across the state
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That is one funky looking ERC -
Wednesday could certainly be an interesting weather day
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Going back to 1928, Greenville has never recorded 3 consecutive years with 1" or less of snowfall. They ended up at 1.1", so very close to setting that record. It's also true that they have never recorded 1.1" or less in 3 consecutive years, but that's a bit of a cherry picked stat.
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Hush now
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Torch incoming
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First 10 days of February were +10.5
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Coldest start to the year across the US in a long time
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Even more through the end of the run. The only fun thing about March snow is it's rare.
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Near zero dewpoints last night, which is increasingly unusual as we head into March. Single digit dew points occur just over 10% of the time in late February
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We have now entered the time of year when you have to both be in a great pattern and get lucky. I am not really seeing a ton of support for cold air linking up with moisture on ensembles, so I would say, bring on the warmth
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12z holds serve In contrast with the regular Euro
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Is that ice report legit? Has to be bogus, otherwise the whole purple area would be lights out -
Yep, when I suggested for you to make the storm thread, I didn't think you would use that power only to bring Raleigh the goods
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snow or severe? #justmarchthings
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Yeah, the HRRR had some fresh development east of the mountains but dried up a bit in the most recent run. Encouraging you are already seeing flurries since the best dynamics won't be for at least another hour
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See that's how I know this is the South, otherwise you'd be taking them out to do donuts in an empty parking lot...and then getting Chick-fil-A afterward
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All that dry air just enhanced banding for the developing coastal. Congrats Raleigh, I know how rare these are!
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This is somehow steady light snow
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Huge flakes In Greensboro. Wasn't really expecting these kind of rates. Let's see if the band can stay out for a while, maybe even build to the west a bit, before pushing East. I'm thinking based on hires modeling, we should be in the best dynamics through about 4 pm
