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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    It's been a bit of a trend in that direction, but hard to buy into the GFS when it's such an outlier from all other models.
  2. olafminesaw
    The 11 am advisory has Debby right at the coast just south of Tybee island. It is still expected to reach 60 mph before landfall and maintenance TS strength deep into central NC. Keep in mind even though the track makes it look like Debby won't spend much time over water, it won't make landfall again for another 36-48 hours
  3. olafminesaw
    Seems like every flood event there's somewhere that's supposed to get crushed that doesn't and somewhere that's on the fringe that gets way more than expected. It's near impossible to predict where so the forecast is always smoothed out, and an unrealistic depiction of reality. Which frustrates the general public, but there's not a great alternative.
  4. olafminesaw
    It does seem like most of the coastal areas will get a dry slot as the center passes. A lot of models push a lot of the moisture to the west side of the storm once the storm has made it back over water and starts moving inland. This is where the bad flooding will occur. Probably impacting the SC coast the most.
  5. olafminesaw
    Raleigh now in the high risk of excessive rainfall day 3 (Thursday), the Triad in the moderate.
  6. olafminesaw
    Still seeing big differences between the GFS and The rest of the models. It sure is stubborn!
  7. olafminesaw
    The majority cluster moves the storm much further inland/West than most globals, matches close to the UKMET
  8. olafminesaw
    There's also a fairly significant amount of shear evident on satellite if you watch the West side of the storm. Should be a shell of it's former self once it reaches the Atlantic.
  9. olafminesaw
    The SC coast is under a moderate risk of high risk for 4 straight days.
  10. olafminesaw
    0z vs 12 UKMET
  11. olafminesaw
    Radar can be deceptive, but after stalling out for a while it seems to be moving slowly NE again
  12. olafminesaw
    The WPC is bullish on heavy rain inland. Coastal areas still the main risk region with the possibility for the biggest flood event since Florence.
  13. olafminesaw
    Crazy the differences between the GFS and Euro 3 days out! Big differences in rain totals for the Piedmont. Coastal areas especially in South Carolina of course should get soaked regardless
  14. olafminesaw
    GFS takes a big step North towards the Euro
  15. olafminesaw
    Still a lot to resolve wrt track
  16. olafminesaw
    Just in time to take advantage of dmin Tommorow morning
  17. olafminesaw
    Getting more and more symmetrical. Rare to see a TD with such a clear CoC
  18. olafminesaw
    Much less likely now it will stay offshore after making landfall in FL
  19. olafminesaw
    At hour 141 987 mb taking a hook towards the SC coast
  20. olafminesaw
    FWIW the UKMET stalls out inland as well. Seems to be a trend west at 12z. Still on the table that the storm won't really make it back out over water (at least for very long).
  21. olafminesaw
    I know the Canadian is not to be used for tropical systems, but it does pull the system really far west. Could be an indicator of the overall steering pattern needing an adjustment West perhaps...but I know it may as well be tossed entirely
  22. olafminesaw
    Not even much of what you could call a circulation yet. So no reason to believe that land interaction is an inhibiting factor other reducing the chances of development somewhat in the short term.
  23. olafminesaw
    The outer Banks is due for a scraper. Seems like the would get 2-3 hurricanes/near misses every year but not so much the past few years.
  24. olafminesaw
    Reminiscent of Florence with the crawl inland crushing Wilmington (although it seems most model outputs are pretty low impact once you get away from the coast )
  25. olafminesaw
    The 12z spaghetti plots will be epic
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