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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Cedar key seems to be in the cross hairs for surge. Was reading about the natural sea barrier that fared well during Idelia. But that was only a 6.8 ft surge https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2023/12/01/cedar-key-hurricane-idalia-living-shoreline-storm-surge-erosion-florida-sea-grant/
  2. olafminesaw
    I think winds are a big concern for the higher elevations of the southern Apps, even if Helene is not as strong as some of the models sugguest at landfall. I am hopeful that winds will have lost their punch by the time they get to the Northern Piedmont
  3. olafminesaw
    In theory yes, but at this stage shifts to the right increase the chance for surge to be a significant threat for Eastern Florida. A landfall even as far north as Cedar key would be really bad for the Tampa area.
  4. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro is still quite weak entering the gulf
  5. olafminesaw
    Thanks! This makes sense, early in the month the SE ridge is more likely to have influence. On models there seems to be a persistent trough off the east coast that is likely to pull the system more to the right.
  6. olafminesaw
    Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    It gets pulled by the trough off the east coast, which is anonymously far south. Also no ridging to stop it from recurving.
  9. olafminesaw
    It seems to me the inhibiting factor for development could be the broad circulation may have trouble tightening. This seems to be why the GFS has a very large hurricane, while the Euro has shown on several runs a broad area of low pressure that never develops despite reasonably favorable conditions.
  10. olafminesaw
    I-85 is lava. Seems mid-level dry air should keep rain totals in check for the triad. The HRRR depicts this well, with around .5" and 1-2" just to our south.
  11. olafminesaw
    Top gusts so far: 60 mph Wilmington, 67 mph Wrightsville beach, & a rather suspect looking 77 mph gust at sunny point. Meanwhile, even along the coastline only gusts in the mid 30s south of Bald Head.
  12. olafminesaw
    Yeah I thought that was pretty well established a couple days ago, that a stronger storm could actually be enhanced by what on paper is shear. You think more of a net neutral impact overall though?
  13. olafminesaw
    Yeah probably sustained 50-60, gusts to 90 for the most part
  14. olafminesaw
    Almost cat 2 per the 5 am update!
  15. olafminesaw
    Hmm...
  16. olafminesaw
    A well ventilated blob! I wonder if this feature imparts a bit of a Fujiwara effect and pulls Francine a little more East.
  17. olafminesaw
    Also gives it more time over water, and may even strengthen somewhat over the Bayou
  18. olafminesaw
    Trying to rotate hot towers around the center, has a chance to push the dry air out of the core if it continues
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    A bit concerning with respect to surge potential especially if this thing comes in a little stronger. Thankfully, for the most part, coastal LA does not build in the flood zones.
  21. olafminesaw
    What is ideal track? A bit right of the current NHC track?
  22. olafminesaw
    Not your typical hurricane!
  23. olafminesaw
    Looks like the GFS takes the energy from 90L across Mexico into the Pacific where it becomes a hurricane, making landfall in Mexico before crossing back into the Gulf and developing into a hurricane again.
  24. olafminesaw
    No doubt a cat 5 now. Probably went through some kind of eyewall restructuring over night
  25. olafminesaw
    Some of the wildest banding I've ever seen. Well on it's way to cat 5
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