Jump to content

olafminesaw

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,738

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Any idea how the blob of convection to Milton's NE may have an effect? (if any)
  2. olafminesaw
    Pressure falling like a rock. Winds up but not as dramatically
  3. olafminesaw
    Boom
  4. olafminesaw
    Yeah not good seeing it go through an ERC halfway across the Gulf.
  5. olafminesaw
    The waters it will be traveling over are more typical of mid September. No upwelling from Helene to speak of, especially with the track it's taking.
  6. olafminesaw
    The 6z ensembles well North of the 0z model consensus
  7. olafminesaw
    Good point. To what extent has development made South Florida more vulnerable to freshwater flooding? I feel like I only hear about flash flooding in isolated areas when thunderstorms are training over one area?
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    Thankful for the more reasonable rainfall totals here in the Triad in September. However, we still managed to smash the record for most number of 7"+ months in a year at 5 (Jan, may, Jul, Aug, Sep), with the previous record being 3 (5 instances). We are currently ahead of our 2018 record for rainfall and have a very good chance at a top 3 rainfall year yet again (all of the top three would be set in the last 7 years)
  10. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/james_jinnette1/status/1839625146786599282
  11. olafminesaw
    Pretty shocking that SC has surpassed GA in outages
  12. olafminesaw
    Storm of the Century vibes
  13. olafminesaw
    I mean 105 to 125 in 8-12 hours is certainly not as big a hurdle as y'all make it sound. Not to say it's going to happen. But the bottom line is a major hurricanes is likely at landfall which is not going to have a much different impact than a low end cat 4
  14. olafminesaw
    In terms of reducing the populated areas affected by 12'+surge, the current NHC track is ideal. Not a ton of populated towns East of track. ST Mark's is the potential exception as they are right on the cusp either way
  15. olafminesaw
    Hard to believe this thing is in the southern Gulf right now and will be right on top of our region 24 hours from now. Especially after Debby's crawl towards the coast
  16. olafminesaw
    Solar min doing it's work. I wonder if the storm will maintain some level of asymmetry through landfall. Large systems have a hard time mixing out dry air entirely sometimes.
  17. olafminesaw
    Have to watch these cells on the east side of the storm for quick spinups on Friday
  18. olafminesaw
    i don't know anything about this model output, but I believe it is what the NWS bases their forecast on https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge/index.php?R=CONUS&S=Helene2024&Adv=9&Ty=e10&D=agl&Ti=cum&Msg=17&Mp=Street&Z=5&Lt=34.823193&Lg=-79.693886&Help=about
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Worth noting there his a high degree of forecast error possible after landfall, in terms of track and wind, due to the complex interaction with the ULL as well as poor forecast accuracy related strength and placement of ULLs to begin with.
  21. olafminesaw
    Follow the convergence for a rough idea of where the highest impact will occur.
  22. olafminesaw
    Shrimpy West Pacifjc vibes.
  23. olafminesaw
    BTW, how appropriate a user name. This well could be NC's Joaquin!
  24. olafminesaw
    The Southern Apps are going to be to a degree ground zero regardless just from Orographic lift. As well as the convergence the mountains provide with the ULL. It's possible the "wealth" could be spread around a bit more and places like Ashville end up with less than forecast. But somewhere in the higher elevations is getting double digit rainfall. No doubt about it.
  25. olafminesaw
    The HWRF has a good handle on it's deepening
×
×
  • Create New...