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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Good point about the timing. I kinda wonder if records should be keep in a rolling 24 hour period where the highest value would be assigned to the date with more hours total hours in that timeframe. Obviously only makes sense for records rather than daily statistics.
  2. olafminesaw
    GSO has surpassed the latest sub-40 low temp on record, set November 6 2004. December 1st is the latest first freeze on record, which seems achievable at this rate (although some signs of cooler air in the long range)
  3. olafminesaw
    It continues to shock me just how feast or famine this year has been. Feels like we haven't had a stretch of normal variable weather all year. Stuck in the same pattern and then a pattern change and stuck in that pattern for a while, rinse, repeat
  4. olafminesaw
    BWI: 9.8" DCA: 8.7" IAD: 13.1" RIC: 2.5" Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.1"
  5. olafminesaw
    Big structural improvements overnight, should be ready to take off.
  6. olafminesaw
    Gotta love the classic decoupling in the Gulf on the HWRF. Absolutely shredded.
  7. olafminesaw
    Tropical storm coming at the next advisory per Tropical tidbits.
  8. olafminesaw
    Seeing a PRE setting up associated with Rafael. Thankfully not currently much reason to believe heavier rainfall will set up over the mountains. Both the Euro and GFS agree central Georgia is the area to watch.
  9. olafminesaw
    In the latest drought monitor, 70% of NC is at least in the abnormally dry category. Also notable, 87% of the contiguous US is under at least abnormally dry which is the highest on record going back to 2000
  10. olafminesaw
    What an absolute unit, the outer eyewall is about 300 miles across. That's about from Jacksonville FL to the NC border
  11. olafminesaw
    It's been nice to not have to run HVAC for the most part at least... The 0z GEFS had less than .5" for the western Piedmont/mountains over the next two weeks. Don't think I've ever seen totals that low for that long of a timeframe.
  12. olafminesaw
    The only saving grace is I feel like winds have been dead calm the past couple weeks. And while humidity levels have been low they have not been exceptionally so. There's a low spot in my yard where the water drains that has turned into a bit of a jungle. It actually still has some moisture at the roots.
  13. olafminesaw
    A 30-40% chance is something...
  14. olafminesaw
    A little hope perhaps.
  15. olafminesaw
    Looks like some decent ensemble agreement on some rain around the 4th or 5th. Nothing crazy, but hopefully that keeps things from getting too dry until we can get our usual pattern shift sometime in December
  16. olafminesaw
    The silver lining is that any amount of snow is going to feel great, both because the expectations for this year are so low and also because of the ongoing snow drought. Looking at the last 30 years, about a quarter of the time GSO gets less than 2" of snow in a season. Given the inherent uncertainty of long range forecasting, I think we still have a decent shot at a little snow event here or there, even if the rest of the season is a torch.
  17. olafminesaw
    A sharp turn back to the right now per tracker
  18. olafminesaw
    Probably just a wobble, but more likely to be closer to Bradenton at landfall.
  19. olafminesaw
    I'm seeing 71 per IEM, which is already the most in a single day in the state of Florida going back to 1986. Beats out the outbreak caused by Irma in 2017
  20. olafminesaw
    Funky things happening in the eye, but does seem to be moving ENE right now (almost due East). Really hard to determine movement with the ongoing structural changes.
  21. olafminesaw
    Much larger eyewall evident on radar
  22. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/IMCFTraveller/status/1844017969468432551 Confirmed tornado earlier
  23. olafminesaw
    The new eyewall is very much open on the South and West side of the storm. Need to watch convective bursts to see if they can sustain all the way around the eye, or if shear keeps the eyewall open. For days the hurricane models have been showing the "halficane" look with dry air making it's way into the system, so that's kinda what I'd lean towards.
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
    I actually wonder if the ERC is nearly complete. This image was as of a couple hours ago
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