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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Am I seeing a hint of a double wind maxima? Or just noise?
  2. olafminesaw
    Went from 80 mph to 160mph (give or take) in 15 hours
  3. olafminesaw
    Making any mention of a single ensemble member should be punishable by a night in jail or a fine of no less than $5,000
  4. olafminesaw
    The TT SST analysis seems to have ocean temps maybe a bit too cool in the cold pool. A buoy in the heart of it is measuring 78.4F which is warm enough to keep a strong hurricane going. It also has risen a full degree since earlier this morning.
  5. olafminesaw
    Not a ton of strengthening overnight, but improvement to structure, should be stable for a while now and ready to rock and roll.
  6. olafminesaw
    Looks like it's about to start it's RI tonight
  7. olafminesaw
    The TT webpage for Lee updated to hurricane, must be upgrading at 5 pm
  8. olafminesaw
    At the bottom of the lower dynamics tab. But it isn't available in all regions.
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    Can see a little shear preventing this thing from wrapping up quicker. Otherwise I'd say hurricane by early this evening , but should at least steadily strengthen until tomorrow when shear should relax, as you say
  11. olafminesaw
    Convection going up big time. Will eventually be what drives the formation of the eyewall barring any unforseen hickups
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    A bit of a shift on the GEFS as well
  14. olafminesaw
    Hilary was forecasted at 105 kts on it's first advisory (skipped straight to 35kt TS). Pretty similar in terms of model consensus for a powerful hurricane at this range.
  15. olafminesaw
    Not a lot of steering in the medium range, it's crawling on the Euro at around 150 hrs. May make for a tricky forecast wrt the timing with the trough.
  16. olafminesaw
    Wild to think of all the water that would push into the bay of Fundy
  17. olafminesaw
    I've noticed the GFS has a bias for making hurricanes way too large. Can anyone back that up? Not really going to matter if it stays off shore, but if it does approach the East Coast, it's something to keep in mind as the hype machine gets going.
  18. olafminesaw
    Still, cloud cover making a difference early. Yesterday's GFS had us at 93 at 11 am, it's currently 79.
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Wowzers
  21. olafminesaw
    Will we reach 100 on Friday? NWS doesn't think we quite get there. The EURO, GFS and (long range) HRRR are all above 100, with the GFS hottest at 105. The UKMET, ICON, and NAM are all in the mid to upper 90s. I am inclined to believe the GFS is too hot of course, but reaching 100 remains at least a realistic possibility. Thankfully a relatively dry heat thanks to mountain downsloping, with dew points in the low 60s.
  22. olafminesaw
    I know! Don't think I've ever seen that, even with hurricanes that are already cat 5s
  23. olafminesaw
    The Euro and GFS both have temps over 100 on Friday at GSO (102 and 105). This would be the first 100 degree day since 2012 and the latest in the season since 1954. On average GSO reaches 100 about once every 5-10 years.
  24. olafminesaw
    Just in general I think the past few years. Going back to 2018, the highest temp of the year has been 95 or 96 every year.
  25. olafminesaw
    Smol
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