olafminesaw

The core very much intact after interacting with the island. Successfully completed an ERC right before landfall

With the Eye going directly over then may have missed the worst of the surge. The small villages on the north end of the island on the other hand...

The GEFS illustrated the two scenarios well from an intensity perspective. Still need to watch and see if models trend back East.

https://x.com/PivotalWeather/status/1856751025610203429 Weenies rejoice! The Euro now goes out to 360 hrs on Pivotal Weather

Agreed. All major models (Euro, Icon GFS, UKMET), now make landfall somewhere in Central America. A track into the Gulf after landfall is now more of a 50/50 proposition at this point as well.

Less than 3 hours apart

Deja Vu intensifies

Looking back over the past 60 years at GSO there is a correlation between warm temps in October and November and lower snowfall totals. It's possible some of this is due to the warmer months falling in more recent years due to global warming and heat island which also affects snow totals. See data below: Average snowfall : 8.23 Average snowfall top 20 warmest November temps: 6.49 Mid 20 Nov : 9.42 Bottom 20 Nov : 8.79 Top 20 Oct : 6.71 Mid 29 Oct : 9.93 Bottom 20 Oct : 8.06 October came in ranked 11th and November has a 76% chance to surpass the top 20 warmest in this dataset per the IEM ensemble scenarios comparison tool. So basically add historical correlations between warm fall temps and low snowfall totals to the growing pile of reasons we will fail this year

Good point about the timing. I kinda wonder if records should be keep in a rolling 24 hour period where the highest value would be assigned to the date with more hours total hours in that timeframe. Obviously only makes sense for records rather than daily statistics.

GSO has surpassed the latest sub-40 low temp on record, set November 6 2004. December 1st is the latest first freeze on record, which seems achievable at this rate (although some signs of cooler air in the long range)

It continues to shock me just how feast or famine this year has been. Feels like we haven't had a stretch of normal variable weather all year. Stuck in the same pattern and then a pattern change and stuck in that pattern for a while, rinse, repeat

BWI: 9.8" DCA: 8.7" IAD: 13.1" RIC: 2.5" Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.1"

Big structural improvements overnight, should be ready to take off.

Gotta love the classic decoupling in the Gulf on the HWRF. Absolutely shredded.

Tropical storm coming at the next advisory per Tropical tidbits.

Seeing a PRE setting up associated with Rafael. Thankfully not currently much reason to believe heavier rainfall will set up over the mountains. Both the Euro and GFS agree central Georgia is the area to watch.

In the latest drought monitor, 70% of NC is at least in the abnormally dry category. Also notable, 87% of the contiguous US is under at least abnormally dry which is the highest on record going back to 2000

What an absolute unit, the outer eyewall is about 300 miles across. That's about from Jacksonville FL to the NC border

It's been nice to not have to run HVAC for the most part at least... The 0z GEFS had less than .5" for the western Piedmont/mountains over the next two weeks. Don't think I've ever seen totals that low for that long of a timeframe.

The only saving grace is I feel like winds have been dead calm the past couple weeks. And while humidity levels have been low they have not been exceptionally so. There's a low spot in my yard where the water drains that has turned into a bit of a jungle. It actually still has some moisture at the roots.

A 30-40% chance is something...

A little hope perhaps.

Looks like some decent ensemble agreement on some rain around the 4th or 5th. Nothing crazy, but hopefully that keeps things from getting too dry until we can get our usual pattern shift sometime in December

The silver lining is that any amount of snow is going to feel great, both because the expectations for this year are so low and also because of the ongoing snow drought. Looking at the last 30 years, about a quarter of the time GSO gets less than 2" of snow in a season. Given the inherent uncertainty of long range forecasting, I think we still have a decent shot at a little snow event here or there, even if the rest of the season is a torch.