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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I honestly can't think of another time when temps have risen overnight without any cloud cover or precip. Usually ahead of the front there's at least scattered precip and thick cloud cover. There's a lot of dry air to our SE which is odd too. I guess arctic fronts behave differently than a traditional cold front.
  2. olafminesaw
    The front Tommorow should be kinda fun. High temp around mid morning in the triad, that doesn't happen very often
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    A remarkably even temp distribution across the state, only a couple degrees warmer near the coast than the western Piedmont,with most everyone between 15 and 25 degrees as the low. Low temp of 21 in Wilmington is colder than Boston at 28
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    The analog that I've heard a lot is '13-'14 which also had some wild December swings before a snowy second half of the winter. It did not have a December cold snap to speak of like this year however.
  7. olafminesaw
    Merry Christmas
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    Part of me doesn't want our streak to end on a dusting. The Triad and Raleigh should be too dry to have any accumulation, but possibly a dusting for the East side of Charlotte and areas to the north and East (Albemarle, Rockingham, Salisbury)
  10. olafminesaw
    It would seem we are likely going to be in the wait for the January pattern change after all. Eric Webb seems a little more optimistic this time around at least, thinking there's about a 50/50 chance of extended cold periods in the long term, vs staying a more typical la Nina torch pattern
  11. olafminesaw
    Beyond 7 days looks like a great pattern for interior New England upcoming. Which is to say, not a great pattern for us. Maybe some CAD potential,but the southern stream interaction is too far NE.
  12. olafminesaw
    Ultimately it gets squashed, but this is interesting
  13. olafminesaw
    Funky cloud formation in PA
  14. olafminesaw
    Winters with measurable snowfall in December at GSO average 2.5 degrees below average for the month with a good deal of variance from -8.4 i ln 1989 to +4.0 in 1998. Not sure what to make of this statistic as it includes a few extreme outliers and mostly slightly below normal months. Obviously cold air is a good thing but our usual 1 in three chance of measurable snowfall is not necessarily a significantly increased probability based on the pattern ahead.
  15. olafminesaw
    GEFS suggests the cold pattern continues in the long range after a short relaxation
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    A Dec 2018 redux
  18. olafminesaw
    I think the one after is the one to watch. At least outside the mountains
  19. olafminesaw
    Notably, variability up until Thanksgiving and then stays below average temps all the way to the end of the run.
  20. olafminesaw
    A pretty wild elevation dependent snow event coming for NE PA, the forecast is calling for 1-2" for Scranton at about 1,000 feet of elevation and for a foot of snow above 2,000 feet. That would be torture!
  21. olafminesaw
    Feels like the last time cold air made it over the mountains without moderating considerably was the 2022 Christmas arctic blast. Certainly nothing with any staying power.
  22. olafminesaw
    I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of threats.
  23. olafminesaw
    We may have an opportunity at freezing Tommorow night, to avoid the record. Usually we expect to have dropped into the mid 20s by now
  24. olafminesaw
    Not at any of the long term climate stations. Probably some isolated stations have dropped to freezing.
  25. olafminesaw
    Also seems to be annular.The only annual cyclone I can think of this season
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