olafminesaw

Time to start paying attention to our next tropical(ish) threat. Whether or not it gains tropical characteristics, we could see higher winds than one would normally expect from a system of it's strength, due to the interaction with the high to the north. Heavy rain possible for the coastal plain, with the I95 corridor being the current cutoff for heavier rainfall (subject to adjustment East or west)

A little home brew weenie bait

The Hellenic National Meteorological Service per wikipedia.

Mmm. Cinnamon rolls

Yep, 30 mph sustained winds at Hatteras and 10-15 foot waves. 2 to 4 feet of Coastal flooding as well.

Storm total from yesterday 3.18 at the gauge about half a mile from my house. The 30 minute total of 1.8" and the 2 hr total of 3.16 are both about 25 years floods per the precipitation frequency server. I was driving home in it near peak rainfall rates, thankfully my route didn't have any real low spots, but it was some of the toughest driving conditions I've been in

Agreed, although coastal Maine is more vulnerable to wind damage than NS I would imagine. Looking back through records per Weather spark, gusts in the 50- 60 mph at Bar Harbor are much more rare (maybe once a year), compared to Halifax (3-5 times per year). NS also recently went through Fiona, so this should be no problem for them, while I believe it's been a while since Maine has had a storm of this magnitude. It seems plausible that a large area of the coast near landfall will experience high end TS to low end Hurricane force gusts

The Euro no longer is trying to deepen back to a cat 4, so we'll see if that has any effect on the track

Three distinct clusters. So when combined with the GEFS something like, 15-20% chance of hooking into MA, 40% chance, landfall on the northern coast of Maine, 40% chance of missing right and hitting NS.

Two distinct camps between the faster members that miss right and the slower members that have the hook to the left. The thing is now many of even the slower members miss as they get too far east first and don't make as dramatic a turn as they were yesterday. This is the case with the EPS as well with the OP being a bit of an outlier. Coastal Maine is still in play though and effects could certainly be felt in eastern MA due to the size of the storm

still some pesky convection in the old eyewall, but the new eye is really starting to rock and roll

Might take some time to clear out though (this a couple hours later)

Definitely expanding

The HAFS A and B both have it in the middle of a ERC and don't complete it for about 48 hours. The Navy.mil site seems to be down, so hard to say how far along the process is, but after the last ERC we were left with quite a bit of competing bands that held strength in check initially and ultimately led to our current ERC

Kinda a wonky structure, lots of banding.

Working through an ERC at the moment

Meanwhile Lee is looking much improved, if it can continue to wrap convection around the eye it may take off again sooner rather than later

The Euro has been all over the place. Swings between missing NS entirely to the East, and a US landfall almost every other run. The GFS meanwhile has been rock steady with a landfall on NS for days now.

That's MAJOR HURRICANE scrambled eggs to you

Yeah, it's been rock steady for several days now (keep in mind the heavy precip is west of the track).

Structure is impeccable. HAFS B suggests an ERC starting around 21-0Z this evening. Seems inevitable based on the size of the eye. But could see strengthening in the meantime

I think so, I don't think a little bit of shear would cause the eye to degrade on appearance and the pressure to rise so much in a such a short period of time without an ERC. Not any signs of one on microwave which could be just due to the low resolution/small core, but also could indicate more of a meld/quick ERC.

Missing pressure data at the moment. Hopefully temporary