olafminesaw

Pretty unusual to see as dramatic a drop in dewpoints in October. Going to bottom out in the upper 20s after being at 62 this morning. A drop of 35 in a 24 hour period would be just outside the top 10 for the month of October

The cone vs ensemble spread is kinda wild

Is our upcoming cold(ish) snap a direct result of the spike in PNA?

A hot mess indeed. CNN is currently running a story with the headline "an unusually hot Atlantic Ocean is neutralizing El Nino. That could be bad news for the rest of hurricane season." Right on cue, the Atlantic seems to have flipped a switch to it's usual hostile El Nino state. Shear all over the place and little signs of development.

Nom nom

Absolutely! The best way to measure such a streak I can think of is to count consecutive days between 40 and 80 degrees, as these temps roughly delineate summer from fall from winter. More than about ten straight days is somewhat rare which is a bit surprising. In data going back to 1980, 2003 was the grandaddy of all falls with not one, but two streaks of 10 days plus. Also, between Sept 20 and Oct 20 is the typical time range for "true fall" (if you will) is to occur. This year could have had a good streak going, but a couple warm days interrupted it. Even so, it has been consistently fall-like and should remain so for the foreseeable future, and should make a run at an impressive streak!

Really hard to predict track with the system behind it having some influence and possibly Fujiwara effect. A weaker system should come more south though and they are leaning hard on the Euro

A slow ramp up but probably starting sometime between 3 and 5 am

Area of highest winds seems to be expanding rather than increasing. Consistent with most models in this regard.

Mostly clear with some thin cirus and a handful of little whispy clouds zipping along at a quick pace in Greensboro. Strange sunset lighting with more clouds cover to the East muting the blue sky. Rather breezier than I would have expected although the bendy oaks can be decieving. Hoping for a slower landfall and thus experience a little of the fun in the AM (even though it shouldn't get too exciting anyway)

Yeah, doesn't look stacked at all (more evident on loop). Kinda neat though!

Ophelia has a rather unusual trajectory, moving NNW at landfall. I can't find any TSs or Hurricanes in the NOAA database along the NC coast that are close. Most move NE, with a number of outliers moving more W or WNW

Higher winds should be pushing inland through the afternoon

The 12z GFS took a sizeable jump west and now brings 2-3" of rain to the Triad. It also brings higher (50mph +) gusts to Raleigh

60 mph at landfall

This is a good point, because reformation adds uncertainty to the track. Hopefully the 18z HAFS will shed some light on the evolution. Seeing all that lightning arcing around the circulation leads me to believe this is developing rather quickly.

It will be nice to get the hurricane models in on the action as well

Also moving more due N rather than NE, as depicted by the GFS, at landfall. Indicates more impact further inland. I think I95 East is a near lock for a moderate impact event. And between Raleigh and I95 is still up in the air depending on track. The Western piedmont should be relatively low impact as of now

I really think it just feels this way. We've gotten a lot more detailed maps and so much more data to sift through over the past few years. Most of the time it's people paying too much attention to outliers. In this case I do think we have a lower confidence forecast than normal

The 6z Euro is really keeping it weak and offshore

First pass suggests current intensity of 90mph is about right. Need to wait for it to sample the southern eyewall, but they got 75 kts in the northern eyewall

The GFS is quicker to develop, and well west. I think the faster it can develop the more chance it has to move inland.

Time to start paying attention to our next tropical(ish) threat. Whether or not it gains tropical characteristics, we could see higher winds than one would normally expect from a system of it's strength, due to the interaction with the high to the north. Heavy rain possible for the coastal plain, with the I95 corridor being the current cutoff for heavier rainfall (subject to adjustment East or west)