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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    This month
  2. olafminesaw
  3. olafminesaw
    The AO is forecast to be -2 vs-1 in early Dec. NAO about the same at -.5. PNA +.5 vs +1 in Dec. So about the same, although AO is probably the biggest driver for snow and -2 is substantial. It would be the most negative AO since 2022. The last time a -2 AO or more was coupled with + PNA and -NAO was January 2021 which was near normal temps and snowfall
  4. olafminesaw
    Possibly the highest mean of the season
  5. olafminesaw
    Positive trends on. The Euro ens
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Probably too dry West of the triangle. An odd setup, not sure I buy it, I suspect precip will be too suppressed
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    Graupel watch! (Because it's all we've got)
  10. olafminesaw
    A helpful diagram I pulled from Twitter. Pacific jet is keeping any Canadian air from migrating down (surprised surprise)
  11. olafminesaw
    Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected.
  12. olafminesaw
    I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking in canada
  13. olafminesaw
    I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston.
  14. olafminesaw
    Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on)
  15. olafminesaw
    For a big storm, fast flow/stream interaction to far East and two much Northern stream energy/Great lakes low are all working against us. Working for us is legit cold (if transient), and plenty of Gulf moisture to tap into if the Southern stream can get going. I feel the 6z GFS weak clipper type system is out best chance and may not really get resolved on models until a couple days before the storm. It helps to know we've already had some success this year with a similar system.
  16. olafminesaw
    Anything beyond day 5 is a crapshoot. Check out the differences at 6 days between the Euro and GFS
  17. olafminesaw
    Just a lil run to run variability
  18. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I lived in northern VA at the time and remember coming back from Christmas in Western PA, expecting to see several inches of snow, only to find a dusting. It was crazy because they really ramped up the forecast totals just a day or two before the storm. I think model accuracy has really improved since then
  19. olafminesaw
    That track reminds me of the Dec 2010 storm
  20. olafminesaw
    Sicko fantasy storm of the year so far, lol.
  21. olafminesaw
    I hate to say it, but if the HRRR is to believed,the mountains need to watch out for a somewhat significant flash flood threat this evening into tommorow
  22. olafminesaw
    And the Euro AI is much different with some impressive cold the week before Christmas
  23. olafminesaw
    Last night's windchill of 10 degrees at GSO is the coldest this early in the season since 1989, at least per IEM
  24. olafminesaw
    It's not quite there but the Euro tries to develop a secondary wave behind the front on Wednesday
  25. olafminesaw
    I'm sure you're right. We had steady wind throughout the night and stayed steady throughout the night at 39 until around 6 am when it suddenly rose to 43. I think the wind shifted to a more Westerly component, which brought the higher few points.
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