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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Euro AI is really nice for storm #2
  2. olafminesaw
    More at the end of the run. I think we get at least one more shot after the 10th
  3. olafminesaw
    18z vs 12z
  4. olafminesaw
    Multiple waves in the Gulf but they all get squashed. I would give it 24 hours before too much concern.
  5. olafminesaw
    Euro's cooking out to 216. Moisture spreading over texas
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Much further south but also, don't have HP in a good place and big beefy system is going to cut big time regardless
  8. olafminesaw
    ICON looks much like the UKMET for the 6th. Not the storm to bet the house on, a bit of a thread the needle, but while we wait for clarity on the second storm, we track...
  9. olafminesaw
    Best case scenario would be a classic overrunning event on the 6th where it remains more flat/frontal. Only downside is someone probably ends up with a lot of ZR. The the coastal comes in a few days later and buries us. My sense though, is that a cutter for the first storm may be a better way to set the stage for the second, where without it cutting there's a chance of more of a threat to the deep south than the Carolina's. Could be wrong though.
  10. olafminesaw
    FWIW, the UKMet looks really nice for the storm on the 6th
  11. olafminesaw
    Somewhat negative trends overnight, one way that we can fail is to get caught between the storm on the 6th and 9th, with the first too far north and the second suppressed. This is a risk in any pattern, the difference this time is the range of outcomes where it could snow at least a few inches is pretty wide. At this range we have to take the ensembles as a whole from a few models cycles and not jump to conclusions one way or the other.
  12. olafminesaw
    Moist even
  13. olafminesaw
    Euro AI likes the 9th
  14. olafminesaw
    That's like the southern equivalent of buying a snowblower. Cold rain incoming!!
  15. olafminesaw
    I'd prefer that to 6-10" that melts the next day, any time.
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/GMengel/status/1873081159061782683 Really does a good job of showing the two threat windows, the second being the more potent (9th/10th)
  18. olafminesaw
    Some big ones in there too
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Eric Webb has been the Grinch when it comes to shooting down any optimism the past few years. He is now beating the drum
  21. olafminesaw
    I actually think we've seen some really positive trends overnight in this regard. It was looking like a cutter, or New England special was inevitable in that time frame with the cold air relaxing before the arctic blast arrived behind the storm. Yesterday it was looking like chances were higher for something around the 9th/10th, but now we may get something sooner.
  22. olafminesaw
    It's like one long continuous window of opportunity, which is always good, because we will fail more than win, so the more opportunities the better
  23. olafminesaw
    Some good hits in there
  24. olafminesaw
    In other news...
  25. olafminesaw
    A much better signal for around the 6-8th of January on the 6z gefs
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