olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Model spread six days out is pretty wild. Basically there's two camps, energy breaks free from primarily trough (GFS, ICON, UKMET) and everything else that keeps the upper level energy consolidated to our North
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A really fascinating ULL evolution. Energy diving over the plains, stalls out and stretches, lobe breaks off and dives south. Not something you see too often. The fast flow and dominant Northern stream limits the ceiling on this event, but if everything goes just right it's a good set up for the best kind of storm: cold temps, heavy snow
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The Euro had the same general idea, just didn't quite get it done with the phasing
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A word of caution: I've noticed over the years the GFS has a tendency to over amplify the back side of late phasing storms for the Piedmont. This feels to me like more of a coastal VA threat, although we normally don't get the trough to dig down to the Gulf Coast in these scenarios, so that helps
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Yeah, basically the more the trough digs on the first storm the more it sets up the second storm to take a favorable southerly track. For once I'm not overly concerned about suppression after the cold air is established
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DESI has a phenomenal dashboard that allows you to generate custom graphs and maps for models, including using the national blend of models(below), AI models etc.
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Throwback!
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Yep!
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We've had some, they just haven't panned out.
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Reloads nicely after the 15th as well. Very cold run after the pattern change
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Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type)
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I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks
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A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not
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Seems like the sort of pattern where we may get frequent shots at light accumulation but no big storm threat.
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All three major indices favorable (albeit near neutral mid-month), may be hard for models to resolve
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Yeah, as much as the concern has been that cold dumps to our West, it seems like the trend today has been to make any cold air in North America disappear
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Given the -NAO, we would have to really be cursed not to get any cold air in Jan. Linking up the moisture with the cold is of course another matter
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GEFS and AI GEFS both showing cold around the 12th, while the EPS is warm
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Obviously seems like a kick the can situation but beyond the first reshuffle looking good on the AI GEFS
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Yeah, even if PNA developed as advertised yesterday, there is usually a lag before we see impacts. Now that too is in question. Anyone know how PNA works together with Enso? I would think they would be interrelated.
