Jump to content

olafminesaw

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,753

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Not the worst
  2. olafminesaw
    At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    High shifted West this run. Actually better confluence but it's not enough
  6. olafminesaw
    For 90% of us it's all about the dopamine hit of the big model run, not the snow itself (insert change my mind meme format here)
  7. olafminesaw
    I agree. If one of us had been in a coma since November and woke up and checked the models, I think they'd be thrilled at what they saw. I do think models backing off from the 8th-12th a bit should give us some pause, but overall the pieces are there to make something happen and that's all we can ask for in a Nina (or near Nina) winter
  8. olafminesaw
    I know the cold had backed off a little on some runs but the GFS is back to something nearly as impressive
  9. olafminesaw
    On the one hand -NAO should continue to kick south. On the other hand, the last minute North trend is real. I think this map represents kinda the expected outcome with lots of uncertainty north or south. Of course plenty of opportunity for sleet or ZR south of that snow map
  10. olafminesaw
    That axis of WAA snow is going to mean business wherever it sets up.
  11. olafminesaw
    For sure, should still be wintry though. 12z was the outlier even for the GFS anyway
  12. olafminesaw
    .
  13. olafminesaw
    Much better placement of the high so far on the GFS. Let's see if it still manages to escape to the north
  14. olafminesaw
    Often these front end thump storms over-perform with a few hours of heavy snow to start as warm air advection creates instability. Something to watch if the storm is far enough south and doesn't get sheared.
  15. olafminesaw
    Nice to see the same general look for the 1/10 storm from both the Euro and GFS. Of course the Euro has a great lakes low to keep it from being a much bigger storm
  16. olafminesaw
    Euro AI is really nice for storm #2
  17. olafminesaw
    More at the end of the run. I think we get at least one more shot after the 10th
  18. olafminesaw
    18z vs 12z
  19. olafminesaw
    Multiple waves in the Gulf but they all get squashed. I would give it 24 hours before too much concern.
  20. olafminesaw
    Euro's cooking out to 216. Moisture spreading over texas
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    Much further south but also, don't have HP in a good place and big beefy system is going to cut big time regardless
  23. olafminesaw
    ICON looks much like the UKMET for the 6th. Not the storm to bet the house on, a bit of a thread the needle, but while we wait for clarity on the second storm, we track...
  24. olafminesaw
    Best case scenario would be a classic overrunning event on the 6th where it remains more flat/frontal. Only downside is someone probably ends up with a lot of ZR. The the coastal comes in a few days later and buries us. My sense though, is that a cutter for the first storm may be a better way to set the stage for the second, where without it cutting there's a chance of more of a threat to the deep south than the Carolina's. Could be wrong though.
  25. olafminesaw
    FWIW, the UKMet looks really nice for the storm on the 6th
×
×
  • Create New...