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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    A little nuance (although this is old)
  2. olafminesaw
    Model swings be like
  3. olafminesaw
    I think probably North of the VA border outside of the mountains, could be a big ice storm for Roanoke
  4. olafminesaw
    The Euro AI had a big storm at 18z and a moderate storm 0z. My sense is it's a good model to use to see which direction model consensus is wrong (it was way North with the 6th system all along). 6z GFS goes back to much more suppressed. Hopefully not the start of a trend
  5. olafminesaw
    12z vs 0z EPS
  6. olafminesaw
    Can you show what you're seeing on the H5 between 0z and 12z. Seemed relatively similar to me, but I struggle when I get away from surface maps
  7. olafminesaw
    When I said I wanted a southern slider for Christmas this is not what I meant...
  8. olafminesaw
    12z GFS, CMC and ICON all take baby steps in the right direction. UKMET remains super suppressed.
  9. olafminesaw
    Yep, good trend
  10. olafminesaw
    I agree, although it always feels like a good look a week out always fizzles, but when we lose the threat a week out it never seems to swing back the other way. Super frustrating, although generally speaking a reflection of climo more than anything
  11. olafminesaw
    Not the worst
  12. olafminesaw
    At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    High shifted West this run. Actually better confluence but it's not enough
  16. olafminesaw
    For 90% of us it's all about the dopamine hit of the big model run, not the snow itself (insert change my mind meme format here)
  17. olafminesaw
    I agree. If one of us had been in a coma since November and woke up and checked the models, I think they'd be thrilled at what they saw. I do think models backing off from the 8th-12th a bit should give us some pause, but overall the pieces are there to make something happen and that's all we can ask for in a Nina (or near Nina) winter
  18. olafminesaw
    I know the cold had backed off a little on some runs but the GFS is back to something nearly as impressive
  19. olafminesaw
    On the one hand -NAO should continue to kick south. On the other hand, the last minute North trend is real. I think this map represents kinda the expected outcome with lots of uncertainty north or south. Of course plenty of opportunity for sleet or ZR south of that snow map
  20. olafminesaw
    That axis of WAA snow is going to mean business wherever it sets up.
  21. olafminesaw
    For sure, should still be wintry though. 12z was the outlier even for the GFS anyway
  22. olafminesaw
    .
  23. olafminesaw
    Much better placement of the high so far on the GFS. Let's see if it still manages to escape to the north
  24. olafminesaw
    Often these front end thump storms over-perform with a few hours of heavy snow to start as warm air advection creates instability. Something to watch if the storm is far enough south and doesn't get sheared.
  25. olafminesaw
    Nice to see the same general look for the 1/10 storm from both the Euro and GFS. Of course the Euro has a great lakes low to keep it from being a much bigger storm
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