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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    GSO dropped into the teens for the first time since the day after Christmas 2022. The average first date for the low to drop below twenty is Dec 14th
  2. olafminesaw
    It's a bit of an outlier, but it does seem we will only have opportunities on 2-3 quick moving systems over the next 10 days. Some are promising however and it seems that rainfall is most likely to fall in the .75-1.75" range in that timeframe based on ensemble consensus.
  3. olafminesaw
    Just for kicks and giggles, I present last night's Euro control
  4. olafminesaw
    I love days like this every once in a while, a chilly all day rain. The 12z HRRR indicates we should receive 2-3" across the triad
  5. olafminesaw
    Starting to finally look like a wet period upcoming
  6. olafminesaw
    An Interesting look at the end of the 12z Euro run
  7. olafminesaw
    Models have trended drier for sure. But the Euro ensembles have good agreement on .5-1.5" of rain. The GEFS is more all over the place and opens the door for the front to dry out entirely as you allude to. But there's a strong cluster in the .75-1" range. I think we can feel pretty confident in .5"+, which is not enough but a win relative to what we've gotten the past 6 weeks or so
  8. olafminesaw
    The first extreme drought since 2017 has been issued for some of NC's SW counties. Next Tuesday's system is looking promising for rainfall, especially for the mountains. it looks like a long duration rainfall which will help prevent runoff as well
  9. olafminesaw
    No meaningful rain on the GFS in the next 10 days. The Euro brings through a frontal system next Wednesday that drops .5-1". Unfortunately we've seen how these fronts have dried out as they've approached. Hopefully we get a pattern change around or just after Thanksgiving. I am glad we are stuck in this pattern now and not in mid January!
  10. olafminesaw
    Some signs of moisture in the 4-10 day period
  11. olafminesaw
    On the other hand...
  12. olafminesaw
    More rain to come after the run ends. This would certainly be a drought buster
  13. olafminesaw
    Flashbacks to last December
  14. olafminesaw
    GSO reporting light rain and 33% humidity
  15. olafminesaw
    Moisture moving in on radar but dry air bleeding down from VA is going to win out. 60/39 with dew point dropping and temp remaining stable. I don't see us getting more than a few raindrops
  16. olafminesaw
    BWI: 27.3" DCA: 22.1" IAD: 30.9" RIC: 11.3" SBY: 9.7"
  17. olafminesaw
    Weathergami! Pretty fun concept
  18. olafminesaw
    Rain shield activated
  19. olafminesaw
    Here is a comparison of temp/precip departures depending on enso state. It seems that El Nino skus more wet in the winter months vs in the fall months. Although El Nino years have reasonable odds of being dry as well
  20. olafminesaw
    I love this new graphic from IEM. Great way to visualize an entire month.
  21. olafminesaw
    63/16 at GSO, a RH of 16%. This is right around the average lowest RH for the entire year.
  22. olafminesaw
    Maybe something for the mountains to watch
  23. olafminesaw
    Wow. That beats nearly every coastal city on the East Coast, including Boston for lowest temp so far this fall. It ties the YTD coldest low at Portland ME, set this morning also.
  24. olafminesaw
    With an average first freeze date of Oct 30th one would think this morning's low at GSO of 27 is not particularly unusual. However every degree becomes more difficult to attain this time of year. The average first date at or below 27 is Nov 13 and we have not reached this threshold this early since 1976
  25. olafminesaw
    Incredible photographs (hopefully not paywalled) https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2023/10/photos-acapulco-aftermath-hurricane-otis/675835/
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