olafminesaw

Might as well drive a little further up to fancy gap. Should be a couple degrees colder.

AccuWeather is calling for a trace to a millimeter of zr. Not sure if there's really a difference, but seems about right!

No snow, but the Tuesday system looks kinda fun

I mean, I feel like the whole narrative that we've had these fantastic day 10 looks only to have them disappear, isn't really true. We've had way less fantasy storms than normal, and the pattern hasn't really been all that great on ensembles at range either, just kinda oscillating between pretty good and not so great.There's been flashes of promise but nothing crazy. Now we're actually seeing a pretty legit -NAO and -AO at range. Not saying it all couldn't be a mirage after all, just think it's probably not fair to totally discount the modeled pattern change either.

Posted an Eric Webb tweet the other day that said half of all major snowstorms in NC happen after Feb 15th in El Nino years

The 6z Euro ticks colder and would bring a few hours of light ZR to the piedmont. One thing working in our favor is it will be quiet cold tonight and tomorrow and should drop below freezing well before onset. Sometimes we do well in these setups even with a retreating high. However, we will almost certainly go above freezing by mid morning at the latest, so hopefully we can get a pretty scene on the trees anyway

Based on the timing of the NAO/AO flip to negative (pretty much a lock at this point), and the lag time typically involved, I'd be looking for a storm threat around the 15th. The Pacific is likely not going to cooperate, but it should be a better pattern coupled with peak Climo

A little front end snow with the next system. Something to watch anyway as the upcoming storm tending south/weaker

FYI, It seems the precip type maps for the RGEM and Canadian are broken, at least on Pivotal. It's showing ZR with temps in the upper 30s.

The 12z icon is much colder at the surface and a bit south as well. Several hours of zr including when the heavier precip moves in. Verbatim would have trouble accreating with temps around 31/32, but a trend to watch with the remainder of the 12z models. Not our typical significant ice storm setup, with limited cold air and heavy precip limiting the potential to a moderate event at most.

It's just *not* looking like our storm for the Piedmont (sorry, can't type tonight) Still noteworthy, the next 10 days could get 2024 off to a very wet start

Steps in the right direction FWIW

I feel like one of these systems is bound to feature front end wintry mix eventually, even if relatively minor

GSO has historically had a 32% chance of .1"+ of snow in that 10 day period, so not far off. Also of note, daily snow climo sharply increases from about 3% per day in the next week to about 6% per day the week after. This means between the 29th of Dec and the 4th of Jan there is a 18% chance of at least .1", and a 35% chance between the 5th and 11th. This of course disregards enso state, I assume that many of the snowfalls in the first week of January occured during El nino.

A decent signal, especially for the mountains for 6th/7th

Oof. Torches at the surface verbatim, with insufficient cold air, despite the perfect track and being timed well with the cold air. Probably would be snow in this scenario, but might not really even accumulate. Of course, this is still pretty far out, but we keep seeing this system too warm at the surface. Hopefully we see that change towards mid-month.

GSO MTD rainfall is now 7.01", which moves it into second highest of all time behind 1914 at 9.05" and just ahead of 2018 at 6.99"

An uptick on the GEFS mean as well. Haven't dug into the members at all In case you didn't know, weather.us has about the best free model data out there internationally. Hopefully you get to track something this winter over there!

Worth noting that unlike the past couple years, models will probably key into any moderate to major snow threats pretty early on. Good to see the GFS and Canadian also trying to put the pieces together in that timeframe

Some potential here for some flakes to fly with the ULL

That's my biggest concern is all the pieces flying around. I'd much rather a weak southern stream system running along a ridge.

Gravity waves?