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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Be careful with precip type maps! The NAM seems to be overplaying the ZR, this sounding for Raleigh area would likely be sleet, especially with that much lift.
  2. olafminesaw
    Latest GRAF is solid https://x.com/AndrewWMBF/status/1877304541500109179
  3. olafminesaw
    And I don't the RAP ever has a wheelhouse
  4. olafminesaw
    Perhaps 18z will at least stop the bleeding if not start moving back the other way!
  5. olafminesaw
    Virga virga virga
  6. olafminesaw
    Hmmm
  7. olafminesaw
    I actually think dry air is the reason that we will see the mix line further south through evaporative cooling. Or if the moisture is more robust the mix line pushes north sooner, but the front end thump is better. Which is why near and south of 85 snowfall outputs have been similar regardless of QPF totals
  8. olafminesaw
    Small step in the right direction compared to 0z in regards to QPF
  9. olafminesaw
    Probably a good call
  10. olafminesaw
    GRAF looks great for Atlanta https://x.com/RodneyHarrisTV/status/1876981103870812395
  11. olafminesaw
    Yeah, and I don't think we'll really know until the precip starts falling if poor dynamics or the help of mid-level warm advection will win out. Both elements tend to be poorly modeled with less data from the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere
  12. olafminesaw
    Hopefully we can reverse the trend this evening
  13. olafminesaw
    Oof!
  14. olafminesaw
    Dry air apparent, check out radar vs precip totals
  15. olafminesaw
    Hires shows the precip shadow from downsloping
  16. olafminesaw
    Here's GSP's map
  17. olafminesaw
    Can we cash this out?
  18. olafminesaw
    Yep, hopefully we can trend back the other way a bit. Perhaps the front end thump will over-perform if a stronger storm verifies, which i think is what the 6z GFS trended towards, rather than trying to rely on back end phasing (which also would mean more mixing)
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Good call I think , at least for the Piedmont
  21. olafminesaw
    The GRAF shows what the Euro has been showing for days, dry air cutting into our totals. https://x.com/TimBuckleyWX/status/1876817819913912685
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    I wouldn't think too much about the (regular) NAM. It has an amped bias and a cold bias and overall isn't very good. The hires model is great for thermals and identifying banding features but not as useful for track, QPF etc.
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
    Does anyone have the NBM trends for precip over the past few models cycles? My sense is models trended wetter generally through 6z until the 12z models generally took a step back in terms of QPF
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