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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Welp. Seems about right.
  2. olafminesaw
    What in tarnation is under these returns?
  3. olafminesaw
    Yeah I'm really getting deja vu on this one so that's not a good feeling. But I do think the orientation and Eastward progression of the cold air is better this time.
  4. olafminesaw
    Looking rather toasty around day 10-14. But signs of another pattern change after. We need a hard reset for early February anyway. Anything after the first week of February is normally drippy slop, which I'm not really about
  5. olafminesaw
    You just couldn't help getting premium so you could see how much we suck in fine detail
  6. olafminesaw
    The first system is more of a threat up close to the VA border. No matter where the band of snow falls it's going to be relatively light and unlikely to accumulate outside the mountains. The second threat looks actually somewhat promising for the coast where they may end up with a surprise inch or two due to better moisture/dynamics.. unless we can trend towards a stronger system, the triad may be left high and dry on this one
  7. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile Portland is getting a major snowstorm for the second year in a row.
  8. olafminesaw
    Dry as a bone
  9. olafminesaw
    So far it looks to me like the GFS is caving to the Euro
  10. olafminesaw
    While I don't think a cave from the rest of the models is likely, especially with the Euro ensembles being a bit more amped than the OP, my worry is if you average it out with the rest of guidance you end up with late development that crushed the NE, but leaves us with poor dynamics/warm surface temps. The counter to this fear though is, it's good to see the GFS generate decent moisture on the backside even after the low passes well to our NE. We want the LP to stay weak and ride the boundary.
  11. olafminesaw
    Yep, always a good sign when the Mid-Atlantic forum is starting to get nervous about suppression
  12. olafminesaw
    Get's squashed, but pretty close to something good.
  13. olafminesaw
    The UKMET is quite amped and warm, good to see the GEFS cold and suppressed
  14. olafminesaw
    Not a ton of snow, but streets would be a skating rink in that scenario for the Triad.
  15. olafminesaw
    This looks decent I think
  16. olafminesaw
    The 18z GFS is much more Euro-like in it's evolution. It's just a little too strung out/suppressed to get the job done.
  17. olafminesaw
    Verbatim the Euro would be pretty nasty in the Triad. Freezing rain turning to snow and temps dropping into the teens overnight. Now it has support from the ensembles. This is right around the time frame where we tend to see models start to put the pieces together, so it's all about watching the trend. Still it's a delicate set-up, even with the advantage of some legit arctic air on the backside of the system. We need this to become a southern stream dominant system and slow down as much as possible.
  18. olafminesaw
    Yeah we just need the energy to consolidate to the south with less NS involvement. Nice not to see an overly amped up system.
  19. olafminesaw
    It would certainly be disappointing to not get anything out of this period
  20. olafminesaw
    12 z GFS is looking much improved for our 15th threat. The trend has been to bring the cutter further south and East which in turn has pulled the cold air further South and East
  21. olafminesaw
    Single day precip records for January are 3.06 at GSO and 2.96 at Charlotte. It seems likely one or both records will fall
  22. olafminesaw
    Consensus for 925mb winds to be 50-75kts across all of the eastern half of NC. The 6z HRRR leads me to believe that perhaps gusts over about 45 mph will have trouble making it to the surface without convection, which is probably why RAH is a little conservative. The globals are still gungho on 50 mph+ gusts.
  23. olafminesaw
    On cue, the GFS serves up a day 9 overrunning event
  24. olafminesaw
    Is a gravity wave event going to occur in the rear exit of the jet streak? It's looking pretty potent.
  25. olafminesaw
    Right now the highest winds are timed with the slug of moisture. This would elevate the threat beyond what we normally would get from baraclonic winds, along with a small amount of instability. 925mb sustained winds are 65-75 mph around that same frame so some of that would be brought down by any convection. Maybe it could gust to 50 especially East of the Triad.
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