olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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It's okay, gotta watch for cavities but throwing back a few apple juices with the boys never hurt anyone -
I gotta say, having moved here from the DC metro, it feels odd getting a winter storm warning for 2-3" of snow!
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It's a game of inches! (Or miles anyway) VA line Archdale Asheboro Greensboro
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Even accounting for the NAM being too far north I would be a bit concerned that this is what it's showing not too long after onset in the triad Weenie phase 2 is here,just 30 minutes later!
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Illustrates the expression ,where you can smell the sleet line is where the heaviest snowfall occurs
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Very reminiscent of 2022. Although that was more like .75"+ of QPF IIRC
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Sleet line moving north as expected, but not before dropping solid snow totals for most
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Kinda what I would expect precip type to look like
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A nasty refreeze likely Saturday night with highs near 40 on Saturday before dipping into the teens Saturday night.
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Be careful with precip type maps! The NAM seems to be overplaying the ZR, this sounding for Raleigh area would likely be sleet, especially with that much lift.
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Latest GRAF is solid https://x.com/AndrewWMBF/status/1877304541500109179
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And I don't the RAP ever has a wheelhouse
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Perhaps 18z will at least stop the bleeding if not start moving back the other way!
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Virga virga virga
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Hmmm
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I actually think dry air is the reason that we will see the mix line further south through evaporative cooling. Or if the moisture is more robust the mix line pushes north sooner, but the front end thump is better. Which is why near and south of 85 snowfall outputs have been similar regardless of QPF totals
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Small step in the right direction compared to 0z in regards to QPF
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Probably a good call
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GRAF looks great for Atlanta https://x.com/RodneyHarrisTV/status/1876981103870812395
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Yeah, and I don't think we'll really know until the precip starts falling if poor dynamics or the help of mid-level warm advection will win out. Both elements tend to be poorly modeled with less data from the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere
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Hopefully we can reverse the trend this evening
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Oof!
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Dry air apparent, check out radar vs precip totals
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Hires shows the precip shadow from downsloping
