olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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This seems to be the first storm this winter both with legit cold and lots of moisture. Now it comes down to precip type. I think North of 85 will stay all frozen barring significant inland shifts, which seems unlikely with the depth of cold air. As always, expect an early flip to sleet and a more narrow band of ZR than global models show
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I suspect much of this is sleet not ZR. Regardless, more amped than we would like which seems to be the trend
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Always feels like this
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It's early, but I think happy hour GFS just might live up to it's name. Hanging back more through 114
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Model consensus currently has a bullseye on Richmond. I would expect that to shift as far south as Down to 85 or as far north as DC over the next few days. Should have a better feel for how things are going to play out in the next 48 hours or so I think.
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A very cold run as well, hopefully that's sleet and not zr, with temps in the mid 20s along 85
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Very closely aligned with the 0z EPS it would seem. Hopefully the 12z EPS ticks south as well, in which case N of I85 will be sitting pretty.
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The UKMET is a lot like the GFS, but slower. The result is more snowy, but I would anticipate some of what it is depicting as snow is sleet
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You will get a sleety mix sandwich and like it
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I Definitely that second piece of energy hanging back in Texas that we would prefer to be the dominant wave, that phases with the first wave. The first wave gets out ahead on the GFS and leaves behind the second
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Yep, ice storm for northern NC, some snow along the NC border
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Some improvements on 6z GFS through 135, colder, but still quite fast relative to consensus
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The morning GFS run wasn't far off from something like that, just needs to slow down and phase
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That is a high impact event all the way up the eastern seaboard
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ICON is cooking. Mixed precip in North Central Mississippi
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Does anyone have the 6z CMC ? Can't remember if it's in range yet or not, but not easily found with a Google search
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I feel like it has a bias for strong phased storms that track south of Guidance, which happens to be exactly what we need
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Y'all undersold the Euro, that thing was nearly a monster.
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Better ridging on the GFS, just speeds up even more and gets out way in front of it. Just need it to slow down.
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You willed it into existence! Appears to be running now
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That's tracking snow in the south for ya. It's more about the journey and the friends we make along the way. Past disappointment is what keeps us invested in future disappointment
