olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Totally agree. I do think there is an upside with more moisture early on Saturday from overrunning where the triangle/triad could over perform.
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And the full run
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GEFS still not buying the Euro, ticked south at 6z
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Praying for a sleet bomb and not the ZR Nightmare the Euro depicts at this point. The 6z GFS at least didn't make any big jumps north so maybe the 6z suite can stop the bleeding (although I know many believe the corpse to be already dead)
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Sometimes model tracking feels kinda like this, you get the weight on there just right, hold your breath and...
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There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way
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FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow
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Earlier phasing and East. Should be a big run with a stout HP well placed
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Yep, no big changes so far, just a tick north
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I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs
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This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm
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I know everyone was nervous about that Euro run, but if it played out as depicted that front end thump of snow would be epic. Over 1" per hour rates possible
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Absolutely, although only the hires version which goes out to 60 hours, so really until Friday-ish to get into it's range for Sunday morning (when mixing is really an issue)
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Yeah, a near lock for 1.5-2.5" QPF all frozen doesn't come around too often and that bears out in the upper levels
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Gotcha that makes sense, that's why the thermals were so much worse with the intial WAA precip, because of the retreating high
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Copy paste 9 (just extend to the East)
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Am I looking at this right that the northern energy and baja energy are moving closer together and therefore phasing sooner leading to a more amplified solution? What makes the GFS different in this regard?
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Fortunately the target is quite wide with this one compared to normal. We have some wiggle room one way or the other (as long as you have reasonable expectations). That being said, we are still more than 4 days out from the main event, which is about when we often see a big adjustment of some kind.
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It even gets some snow down to @GaWx Monday night
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Yeah QPF is less but that's the trade-off. It's good when our worries about too suppressed and to amplified are both equally in play. As you allude to, I do think suppression is the bigger concern at this point of the two
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You could not draw up a better run at 12z than the GFS for Central NC. You don't even see runs like that in fantasy range
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It's always fun because it starts off the 12z suite in the mid range and is very often the exact opposite of how the rest of the suite trends
