olafminesaw

GFS looking better with less HP pushing south early in the run

This graphic kinda illustrates what I'm thinking as far as a plausible outcome

I agree, and I think we're seeing the threat window narrow to from Southern Alabama up the coast to Wilmington, with a cutoff SE of I95 for best potential. So for posters I that area, although models are currently looking a bit too suppressed they remain in a great spot, while for those of us north of I85, it is increasingly becoming a low probability event (although certainly still lots of time for that to change. I think we all need to be cognizant of location when posting about model runs being good or bad or just whether or not the storm threat remains credible.

From a Climo perspective, I wouldn't bank on moisture displacing a true arctic airmass like we are seeing. Again there is some chance I think that the back end of this cold push has some potential, if ridging can relax gradually

Yikes

The storm only has a chance to develop once the cold push lets up. Maybe we can get the second storm to work out if it comes earlier or later,but I fear the only reason it gets going is because of the escape route to the NE that is provided by the weakness in the ridge

Did the Euro take a step towards the GFS in terms of holding back the energy, or is it simply suppressed and so we kind of have three scenarios?

End of the 18z Euro

Yep, GEFS continues the North trend. I would be pretty surprised if the OP didn't come back north by 12z tommorow or so

18z doesn't run far enough out to draw any conclusions, although it looks further south with the Sunday system which is good

May include some from Sunday night but still...

Not totally unprecedented

Yep. The ground is going to be so cold it is going to sublimate the snow on contact

GEFS actually trended a bit less suppressed the last few runs

Totally different storm on the GFS, I wouldn't say delayed because the first one gets squashed and exits stage right and then a couple days later a new vortex emerges

Yeah, a little warm for accumulations, but certainly could be some mood flakes, or perhaps a car topper!

ICON drops 6"+ on new Orleans with temps in the mid 20s

I just would like to point out on this date last year we were on page 15 of the long range discussion thread, this year page 65. And of course that excludes all the posts in the storm thread. At least it hasn't been boring!

0z Euro AI was Ice ice baby. Proves your point about the cold holding back to the west, because the track is quite nice

Typically to get a transition zone that mixes with overrunning events. Basically the cold front stalls over our region and warm moist air to the south is what is both providing the moisture as well as warming the mid levels, while cold air reinforces itself from the cold/dry air to the north. An overrunning event can produce heavy wintry precip without a strong low pressure system developing along the boundary at all, although this does tend to happen eventually as the push of warm air occludes with the cold front once it rounds the corner of the trough. https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/behind-the-weather-the-science-behind-overrunning-100931920

Nice to see the Atlantic isn't bath water for once

Always good when the new England crowd is thinking the pattern will be too suppressed for them