olafminesaw

13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I need to understand what I causing the warm nose on this .. the low is way off the coast

Typically to get a transition zone that mixes with overrunning events. Basically the cold front stalls over our region and warm moist air to the south is what is both providing the moisture as well as warming the mid levels, while cold air reinforces itself from the cold/dry air to the north. An overrunning event can produce heavy wintry precip without a strong low pressure system developing along the boundary at all, although this does tend to happen eventually as the push of warm air occludes with the cold front once it rounds the corner of the trough. 

https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/behind-the-weather-the-science-behind-overrunning-100931920

Nice to see the Atlantic isn't bath water for once

Always good when the new England crowd is thinking the pattern will be too suppressed for them

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Nothing. It’s locked in. Brick reeled this one in from hour 320

The Euro AI says don't give up on the Monday system

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

8-10 days out: pattern recognition. Pattern looks favorable for a winter storm threat. Box checked

Feels like a more plausible version of yesterday's Euro run.

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Where’s the Euro? What’s taking it so long?   

18z only runs out to 144 hrs

59 minutes ago, ObiWanKarlNobi said:

"Brick, let me get this straight.  You took all your money and bet it *against* the Northwest trend?"
"I thought the Triangle was due!"

Let's just say Brick is fortunate he's not as passionate about slot machines as he is snow

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

I feel really good about this one. Euro with a huge storm and then the GFS follows up with a huge storm, too. Not as big as the Euro, but still a big coastal bomb. Euro is usually good at sniffing out the big ones in the long range. Maybe it might not be as big as the Euro and GFS show, but I think this will be the biggest one we have had here in NC in a while.

I've been around long enough to know, that combo is a lock for DC special, or clear blue skies with falling iguananas alerts in Florida 

Also...

23 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I can't imagine there have been very many storms where the max for the state of Georgia is over Altanta

7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

What would be the mechanism or dynamic pushing it back?

I have no idea, all the Mets on Twitter seem to think once it changes over it will be all sleet. But the Hires NAM has the same progression, so I wouldn't totally discount it

The HRRR does seem to have a good handle on the sleet line right now and pushes it back south in an hour or two. A possiblity anyway, not sure that I would expect it

Something I never thought about, why do the obs often include mist while snow is falling? Like GSO obs currently read "light snow, mist". Is this to do with the visibility? 

First flake sighted! South Greensboro 

Only at 31 at 1 pm, I seriously doubt we hit close to our forecast high of 37 today!

36 minutes ago, msuwx said:

That leading band stretching from ATL into SC will mean a lot. Latest NAM completely dissipates it as it tries to push into NC. 

GRAF is the same

https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds/status/1877671619683848519

HRRR holds steady. The sleet fluctuates back and forth over Guilford county for the second half of the storm

6 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Looks like those times very closely mirror the latest GRAF run.

There really aren't any models showing precip before around 5pm, but also these overrunning events tend to start 2-3 hours earlier than modeled (at least as far as light flurry action goes)

RAH has onset much later than many of the news outlets which are saying 12-3. I am guessing somewhere in between, around 4ish for the triad.