olafminesaw

Looks like the GFS takes the energy from 90L across Mexico into the Pacific where it becomes a hurricane, making landfall in Mexico before crossing back into the Gulf and developing into a hurricane again.

No doubt a cat 5 now. Probably went through some kind of eyewall restructuring over night

Some of the wildest banding I've ever seen. Well on it's way to cat 5

What a beaut! Looking a bit annular. Looks stronger than 105 mph...

Huge corrections from all models. Now many models have it slowing down prior to landfall which may give it an opportunity to go through ERC before landfall 

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Hone has clearly organized further overnight and now has a clearing eye with multiple CBs rotating around it. Radar is also telling. The hurricane appears to have intensified. It will be interesting to see how the flow over the Big Island affects and influences Hone's structure. The Lee side of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea's massifs will most likely have some type of deformation on the core as the hurricane positions SW of the island. In fact, that may already be occurring as the eyewall appears pinched in the NW quadrant. Also, keep in mind that the radar beam is blocked to the SW to N due to Mauna Loa.

At GSO we are at 82 hours and counting with a dew point below 60. That is the 7th longest streak all time for the month of August. 

Already seeing gusts of 50-65 mph across the island 

31 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Getting a bit of a "halficane" look

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

It does not look very pretty on satellite

Not a nice fresh delicious cinnamon roll. The one that's been sitting in the case at Panera all morning, growing steadily more stale.

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane. 

Fair enough. I feel like we've been spoiled by a lot of RI hurricanes lately

Looks like it took a big gulp of dry air

Bermuda is a tiny target to hit. It fits nearly within the DC beltway with room to spare. Bermuda has had a number of brushes with major hurricanes and a handful of direct hits. But never a cat 4 plus. With SSTs being way above normal, it is not outside the realm of possibility for Bermuda to have a strike from a cat 4.

Pretty neat graphic, you can watch an animation of the obs across the island as the storm approaches

https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=ISLAND_AWOS&user=

Yesterday's high of 73 is the coolest since May 15th! This morning felt refreshing as well

Evident eye on radar. Puerto Rico getting pounded with rain

That's 20+" of rain for Bermuda over the next few days, primarily from a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event). 

It appears Debby did cool waters somewhat significantly right at the coast, but should recover quickly 

7 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

She is

 

Keep it in your pants East coast!... sometimes I think they do this on purpose 

I am guessing rain will be on the low side of forecast in the triad. Many approaching 3", but if the HRRR is to be believed, heavier rain bands will be more hit or miss from here on out. Still many hours to go. On the other hand wind way over performed. The NWS was calling for gusts under 30 mph, but GSO has reported 5 out of the last 6 hours with gusts over 40mph and one gust to 47

For the triad a dry slot approaches. Remains to be seen how much it fills in. 

Some homes in that area but not a heavily populated area. May have been a direct hit on the solar farm though. (Didn't realize we had anything at that scale in NC)

It's really picked up speed. At this rate she will make landfall by late afternoon/early evening 

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Stronger at 11am. Seeing convection start to go up closer to the center but time and a broad center are limiting factors.

Wow, up to 60mph, I wasn't expecting that at all after the NHC reduced landfall strength to 50mph