olafminesaw
-
Posts
3,238 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by olafminesaw
-
The only saving grace is I feel like winds have been dead calm the past couple weeks. And while humidity levels have been low they have not been exceptionally so. There's a low spot in my yard where the water drains that has turned into a bit of a jungle. It actually still has some moisture at the roots.
-
A 30-40% chance is something...
-
A little hope perhaps.
-
Looks like some decent ensemble agreement on some rain around the 4th or 5th. Nothing crazy, but hopefully that keeps things from getting too dry until we can get our usual pattern shift sometime in December
-
The silver lining is that any amount of snow is going to feel great, both because the expectations for this year are so low and also because of the ongoing snow drought. Looking at the last 30 years, about a quarter of the time GSO gets less than 2" of snow in a season. Given the inherent uncertainty of long range forecasting, I think we still have a decent shot at a little snow event here or there, even if the rest of the season is a torch.
-
A sharp turn back to the right now per tracker
-
Probably just a wobble, but more likely to be closer to Bradenton at landfall.
-
I'm seeing 71 per IEM, which is already the most in a single day in the state of Florida going back to 1986. Beats out the outbreak caused by Irma in 2017
-
Funky things happening in the eye, but does seem to be moving ENE right now (almost due East). Really hard to determine movement with the ongoing structural changes.
-
Much larger eyewall evident on radar
-
https://x.com/IMCFTraveller/status/1844017969468432551 Confirmed tornado earlier
-
The new eyewall is very much open on the South and West side of the storm. Need to watch convective bursts to see if they can sustain all the way around the eye, or if shear keeps the eyewall open. For days the hurricane models have been showing the "halficane" look with dry air making it's way into the system, so that's kinda what I'd lean towards.
-
-
I actually wonder if the ERC is nearly complete. This image was as of a couple hours ago
-
Shear evident on IR, perhaps a bit more than expected at this point. But convection is fighting hard with a new burst wrapping around the center. On track for steady weakening, but a rapid expansion of the windfield.
-
Wind field starting to expand a bit
-
Is that one massive feeder band? Or another feature.
-
Also been moving south a bit the past couple hours away from the dry air and shear, probably the biggest reason for the rapid improvement
-
The theme of this year's hurricane season: cinnamon roll
-
Seems to be structural changes rather than an ERC. No signs of a double wind maxima on recon. New convection is trying to wrap around the eye again,looks to be larger.
-
Where the center makes landfall and even just a few miles to the right of center will get much lower surge. Check out this graphic from Ian
-
Intense convection wrapping around the new eye
-
No signs of shear, now that the new eye is established, should have another specimen by this afternoon. I suspect it will hit cat 5 again, but winds may continue to drop before thy go back up again
-
I think just contracting based off radar. Does look less symmetrical but it's far from the radar site so hard to say
-
One big difference is Katrina was already quite large when it reached cat 5. A medium/large major hurricane making landfall in the GOM is going to have tremendous surge potential regardless, but I am not sure the comparison is appropriate.
