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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    Graupel watch! (Because it's all we've got)
  3. olafminesaw
    A helpful diagram I pulled from Twitter. Pacific jet is keeping any Canadian air from migrating down (surprised surprise)
  4. olafminesaw
    Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected.
  5. olafminesaw
    I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking in canada
  6. olafminesaw
    I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston.
  7. olafminesaw
    Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on)
  8. olafminesaw
    For a big storm, fast flow/stream interaction to far East and two much Northern stream energy/Great lakes low are all working against us. Working for us is legit cold (if transient), and plenty of Gulf moisture to tap into if the Southern stream can get going. I feel the 6z GFS weak clipper type system is out best chance and may not really get resolved on models until a couple days before the storm. It helps to know we've already had some success this year with a similar system.
  9. olafminesaw
    Anything beyond day 5 is a crapshoot. Check out the differences at 6 days between the Euro and GFS
  10. olafminesaw
    Just a lil run to run variability
  11. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I lived in northern VA at the time and remember coming back from Christmas in Western PA, expecting to see several inches of snow, only to find a dusting. It was crazy because they really ramped up the forecast totals just a day or two before the storm. I think model accuracy has really improved since then
  12. olafminesaw
    That track reminds me of the Dec 2010 storm
  13. olafminesaw
    Sicko fantasy storm of the year so far, lol.
  14. olafminesaw
    I hate to say it, but if the HRRR is to believed,the mountains need to watch out for a somewhat significant flash flood threat this evening into tommorow
  15. olafminesaw
    And the Euro AI is much different with some impressive cold the week before Christmas
  16. olafminesaw
    Last night's windchill of 10 degrees at GSO is the coldest this early in the season since 1989, at least per IEM
  17. olafminesaw
    It's not quite there but the Euro tries to develop a secondary wave behind the front on Wednesday
  18. olafminesaw
    I'm sure you're right. We had steady wind throughout the night and stayed steady throughout the night at 39 until around 6 am when it suddenly rose to 43. I think the wind shifted to a more Westerly component, which brought the higher few points.
  19. olafminesaw
    I honestly can't think of another time when temps have risen overnight without any cloud cover or precip. Usually ahead of the front there's at least scattered precip and thick cloud cover. There's a lot of dry air to our SE which is odd too. I guess arctic fronts behave differently than a traditional cold front.
  20. olafminesaw
    The front Tommorow should be kinda fun. High temp around mid morning in the triad, that doesn't happen very often
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    A remarkably even temp distribution across the state, only a couple degrees warmer near the coast than the western Piedmont,with most everyone between 15 and 25 degrees as the low. Low temp of 21 in Wilmington is colder than Boston at 28
  23. olafminesaw
  24. olafminesaw
    The analog that I've heard a lot is '13-'14 which also had some wild December swings before a snowy second half of the winter. It did not have a December cold snap to speak of like this year however.
  25. olafminesaw
    Merry Christmas
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