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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Much further south but also, don't have HP in a good place and big beefy system is going to cut big time regardless
  2. olafminesaw
    ICON looks much like the UKMET for the 6th. Not the storm to bet the house on, a bit of a thread the needle, but while we wait for clarity on the second storm, we track...
  3. olafminesaw
    Best case scenario would be a classic overrunning event on the 6th where it remains more flat/frontal. Only downside is someone probably ends up with a lot of ZR. The the coastal comes in a few days later and buries us. My sense though, is that a cutter for the first storm may be a better way to set the stage for the second, where without it cutting there's a chance of more of a threat to the deep south than the Carolina's. Could be wrong though.
  4. olafminesaw
    FWIW, the UKMet looks really nice for the storm on the 6th
  5. olafminesaw
    Somewhat negative trends overnight, one way that we can fail is to get caught between the storm on the 6th and 9th, with the first too far north and the second suppressed. This is a risk in any pattern, the difference this time is the range of outcomes where it could snow at least a few inches is pretty wide. At this range we have to take the ensembles as a whole from a few models cycles and not jump to conclusions one way or the other.
  6. olafminesaw
    Moist even
  7. olafminesaw
    Euro AI likes the 9th
  8. olafminesaw
    That's like the southern equivalent of buying a snowblower. Cold rain incoming!!
  9. olafminesaw
    I'd prefer that to 6-10" that melts the next day, any time.
  10. olafminesaw
  11. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/GMengel/status/1873081159061782683 Really does a good job of showing the two threat windows, the second being the more potent (9th/10th)
  12. olafminesaw
    Some big ones in there too
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    Eric Webb has been the Grinch when it comes to shooting down any optimism the past few years. He is now beating the drum
  15. olafminesaw
    I actually think we've seen some really positive trends overnight in this regard. It was looking like a cutter, or New England special was inevitable in that time frame with the cold air relaxing before the arctic blast arrived behind the storm. Yesterday it was looking like chances were higher for something around the 9th/10th, but now we may get something sooner.
  16. olafminesaw
    It's like one long continuous window of opportunity, which is always good, because we will fail more than win, so the more opportunities the better
  17. olafminesaw
    Some good hits in there
  18. olafminesaw
    In other news...
  19. olafminesaw
    A much better signal for around the 6-8th of January on the 6z gefs
  20. olafminesaw
    This month
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    The AO is forecast to be -2 vs-1 in early Dec. NAO about the same at -.5. PNA +.5 vs +1 in Dec. So about the same, although AO is probably the biggest driver for snow and -2 is substantial. It would be the most negative AO since 2022. The last time a -2 AO or more was coupled with + PNA and -NAO was January 2021 which was near normal temps and snowfall
  23. olafminesaw
    Possibly the highest mean of the season
  24. olafminesaw
    Positive trends on. The Euro ens
  25. olafminesaw
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