olafminesaw

Graupel watch! (Because it's all we've got)

A helpful diagram I pulled from Twitter. Pacific jet is keeping any Canadian air from migrating down (surprised surprise)

Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected.

I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking in canada

I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston.

Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on)

For a big storm, fast flow/stream interaction to far East and two much Northern stream energy/Great lakes low are all working against us. Working for us is legit cold (if transient), and plenty of Gulf moisture to tap into if the Southern stream can get going. I feel the 6z GFS weak clipper type system is out best chance and may not really get resolved on models until a couple days before the storm. It helps to know we've already had some success this year with a similar system.

Anything beyond day 5 is a crapshoot. Check out the differences at 6 days between the Euro and GFS

Just a lil run to run variability

Yeah, I lived in northern VA at the time and remember coming back from Christmas in Western PA, expecting to see several inches of snow, only to find a dusting. It was crazy because they really ramped up the forecast totals just a day or two before the storm. I think model accuracy has really improved since then

That track reminds me of the Dec 2010 storm

Sicko fantasy storm of the year so far, lol.

I hate to say it, but if the HRRR is to believed,the mountains need to watch out for a somewhat significant flash flood threat this evening into tommorow

And the Euro AI is much different with some impressive cold the week before Christmas