olafminesaw

This guy normally posts satellite analysis that are really fascinating , hopefully he does some updates soon

Feels like we're kinda back where we started 24 hours ago, just a bit south and without the crazy GFS outlier

Lol, lock it in!

I always find this guy to be pretty well reasoned. He's being understandably conservative

We are 36-48 hours from the start and the UKMet has half an inch for Raleigh and the GEFS has double digit snowfall. Go figure

GEFS has the jackpot pretty much right over Wake county, so there's that (.7-.8 liquid)

So close to a big boom, just not quite there with the coastal. The tiniest bit more tilt and we would all be quite pleased, as it stands this is a big run for coastal areas

GFS looks like an improvement in the upper levels,further west with the trough and a tiny bit more negative tilt

Exactly. We need to rely on the Globals now to nail down the tilt and then once the mesoscale models come into agreement on the low placement we can start to talk details. A more Easterly/offshore track is still possible, but globals generally don't show that solution

RGEM has the screw zone more over the triad rather than Raleigh. Focuses energy on the coastal portion and drives the ULL moisture south

Also I gotta say if you live in upstate SC/NE GA trends have been great for you guys over the past 12 hours. Would not be surprised at all to see Greenville SC get 6"+

GRAF kinda mirrors the NAM, so I do think the concern is legit. It's wait and see time

This is a now-casting event. Please do not live and die by every run of the NAM. Someone will be in the screw zone, someone will get a surprise foot

One thing that could be a positive for the Piedmont is if the storm continues to tick south that initial deformation band will more likely settle over the area.