olafminesaw

Glued to every model cycle from here on out, we can reel this fantasy range rainstorm in

The Mariana islands gets just about as many high end typhoons as anywhere else I nthe world. Saipan took a direct hit from a cat 5 back in 2018. I am guessing that Saipan didn't get much above cat 2 winds from this, with maybe some higher gusts. Good timing with the ERC.

Some signs of a pattern change, but I fear this will just keep getting kicked back

My forecast for Saturday is 94 with a dewpoint in the low 50s, flash drought conditions under any circumstances

I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change

Drought to worsen and fire conditions ramp up this weekend with warm temps, dewpoints in the low 50s and breezy conditions. Some signs of a more seasonally average shower/storm chances returning late next week. Hopefully the quick ramp up towards EL nino over the next few weeks will help to shake up the pattern and break down the ridge

It also is peaking earlier than normal, so may be coming down towards moderate by Winter. Hard to say

Probably somewhere in-between, although there's not a lot of analogs for a strong summer El Nino

Yeah not looking good. Ensembles not much better

Oof

Lock it in

90% of the SE is in at least moderate drought for the first time since the drought monitor data began in 2000. Other years had more coverage of severe drought (2012, 2007, 2002), but the overall drought coverage is unprecedented.

This one looks more accurate than the one u posted a few weeks ago

Probably will be a bit quite for a while...unless the GFS is to be believed