olafminesaw

There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way

FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow

Earlier phasing and East. Should be a big run with a stout HP well placed

Yep, no big changes so far, just a tick north

I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs

This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm

I know everyone was nervous about that Euro run, but if it played out as depicted that front end thump of snow would be epic. Over 1" per hour rates possible

Absolutely, although only the hires version which goes out to 60 hours, so really until Friday-ish to get into it's range for Sunday morning (when mixing is really an issue)

Yeah, a near lock for 1.5-2.5" QPF all frozen doesn't come around too often and that bears out in the upper levels

Gotcha that makes sense, that's why the thermals were so much worse with the intial WAA precip, because of the retreating high

Copy paste 9 (just extend to the East)

Am I looking at this right that the northern energy and baja energy are moving closer together and therefore phasing sooner leading to a more amplified solution? What makes the GFS different in this regard?