olafminesaw

Soundings are almost identical but the HRRR depicts differently on the precip type maps

Check out the warm nose this morning in Arkansas

Models had been showing later for the heavy moisture to arrive. That dinnertime start time was likely based on light precip possibilities and also accounts for trying to get people off the road in case it starts early

The latest HRRR brings onset much earlier.

What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno

Over a third of the American population is now under a winter storm warning

https://tinyurl.com/ypmmjduh Lots of fun data to play around with here

These are for Greensboro

Worst case 90th percentile map from RAH

This seems plausible with the possibility of that cutoff shifting north or south

Unfortunately the dry slot may mean freezing drizzle early that would otherwise be sleet. In general global models struggle with QPF distribution,so while I don't think the cutoff of heaviest precip is nailed down, I would tend to disregard the way the globals broad brush uniform heavy precip

NAM actually has a band of very heavy sleet across the area. I think with the intensity of the WAA and the moisture feed it is likely that the dry slot won't be as significant factor as normally is the case with a miller B.

REFS Plumes For Greensboro VS Raleigh at hour 60, Raleigh more of a ZR sounding while GSO more of a sleet