olafminesaw

A word of caution: I've noticed over the years the GFS has a tendency to over amplify the back side of late phasing storms for the Piedmont. This feels to me like more of a coastal VA threat, although we normally don't get the trough to dig down to the Gulf Coast in these scenarios, so that helps

Yeah, basically the more the trough digs on the first storm the more it sets up the second storm to take a favorable southerly track. For once I'm not overly concerned about suppression after the cold air is established

DESI has a phenomenal dashboard that allows you to generate custom graphs and maps for models, including using the national blend of models(below), AI models etc.

Throwback!

Yep!

We've had some, they just haven't panned out.

Reloads nicely after the 15th as well. Very cold run after the pattern change

Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type)

I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks

A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not

Seems like the sort of pattern where we may get frequent shots at light accumulation but no big storm threat.