olafminesaw

ICON a step closer towards phasing but not quite there

As it stands: Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done) Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model No phase: Euro, ICON

There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing

Always bet on a missed phase.

Oof

A miss for them isn't necessarily bad for us

Confidence growing for a light to moderate event across central NC. Still relying on early phasing for the higher totals (6" +)

Lucy whet her appetite and is hungry for more victims

We can't seem to get a trough to tilt negative to save our lives the last few years. Not being negative about the prospects for this storm, just an observation

Dang.

AI GFS digs the trough much more this run

Nice, gotta focus on the big picture pieces. All the pieces are on the board,just need to nail down phasing/timing of all the energy. Will be a few more days of model mayhem before we can start focusing on the details

Really neat loop and a word of caution https://x.com/TomNiziol/status/2015858077736546666?s=20