olafminesaw

I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change

Drought to worsen and fire conditions ramp up this weekend with warm temps, dewpoints in the low 50s and breezy conditions. Some signs of a more seasonally average shower/storm chances returning late next week. Hopefully the quick ramp up towards EL nino over the next few weeks will help to shake up the pattern and break down the ridge

It also is peaking earlier than normal, so may be coming down towards moderate by Winter. Hard to say

Probably somewhere in-between, although there's not a lot of analogs for a strong summer El Nino

Yeah not looking good. Ensembles not much better

Oof

Lock it in

90% of the SE is in at least moderate drought for the first time since the drought monitor data began in 2000. Other years had more coverage of severe drought (2012, 2007, 2002), but the overall drought coverage is unprecedented.

This one looks more accurate than the one u posted a few weeks ago

Probably will be a bit quite for a while...unless the GFS is to be believed

I feel like ceiling on this event was always high, but in recent years the SPC has moved away from their old approach of staying conservative and ramping up the categories until day of. Now they try and predict what the day 1 probabilities should be two to three days out. The old method they would have gone with an enhanced yesterday and then held off on a moderate this morning knowing the CAMs were showing the threat diminished.

Florida may be America's armpit, but phoenix is America's air fryer.

Seems like maybe the RDU hot spot got corrected?