olafminesaw

December climo for 1" snowfalls before 2005 and after 2005. Even before 2005 they were a 10-30% chance outside the mountains in any given year. We are fortunate to be even talking about the possibility of snow Mountains are a different matter

We seem to be narrowing in on a higher likelihood of some light snowfall. Lots of details to be ironed out, with uncertainty about moisture and timing which opens the door for a modern moderate impact event (definitely less likely). Any chance for a higher potential coastal storm can probably be ruled out

Yep, fits well with the rule of thumb that the GFS is often too progressive. One thing we have working for us for once is the northern stream is not going to become dominant with this one

Likely picking up on some of that CAD ice potential

The little bit of SER tends to lead me to believe that DC to New England is favored with some CAD potential for the carolinas

Just a lil ice with an incoming tropical system in the gulf

Looks like EF4 type damage with cinder block construction torn down. This area was in the "weaker" western eyewall. At a similar altitude to where that 250 mph wind gust was measured

Would rather get this out of the way early.

Dumping cold over Texas instead of spreading East? We break this curse eventually right?

Gives you an idea of how rare snowfall of any amount is outside the mountains in the first half of November (this data set is 1970-2024)

Neat to see the cold air pushing clouds away from Florida.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Florida-truecolor-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looking at traffic cams, up to half an inch or so accumulated in Eastern NC!

Flurry reports coming in ahead of schedule

I can't justify staying up late for this so hoping for a lil dusting to wake up to. I fear it is so dry it will disappear by the morning even if it does stick