olafminesaw

NAM actually has a band of very heavy sleet across the area. I think with the intensity of the WAA and the moisture feed it is likely that the dry slot won't be as significant factor as normally is the case with a miller B.

REFS Plumes For Greensboro VS Raleigh at hour 60, Raleigh more of a ZR sounding while GSO more of a sleet

Thanks! Gets confusing to the public when maybe an area under a winter storm warning could get more ice than an ice storm warning, when ice is the more serious impact to prepare for

How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?

Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details

Yeah pretty much, at the surface anyway. Stronger CAD despite not really jumping south at all

Sleet bomb is back on the menu boys and girls

Through 39 hrs, noticeably south with the push of moisture on the GFS

Seemingly aligning with the rest of guidance WRT the track

Found these maps that pretty much align with my thinking right now.

Is it also fair to say it's handling of the CAD also makes it's handling of the surface low track suspect as well?

It's all about speeding up the onset in order to get snow south of the border. South shifts won't really help if onset is delayed