olafminesaw

Precip departures For June: GSO -.25 RAH -.42 FAY -.15 Charlotte +1.39 Greenville +1.88 Asheville +2.16 Wilmington +.67

89/73 with not a pop up in sight

A bunch of stationary storms parked right over 95, would make for an interesting drive

Also this mornings sounding smashed the all time record for ML cape for the 12z soundings data set at GSO: 3,632 vs the old record of 3,588 set in 1983. In fact only four soundings have ever exceeded 3,000

Current ML lapse rates at 8+ and ML cape around 4500 near Fayetteville along with a touch of shear. Gotta watch out for popcorn storms with nasty microbursts, especially in the sand hills.

Already at 88/73. That Excessive heat warning may be needed after all at this rate

GSO has managed to record at least a trace of precip for the past 15 consecutive days going back to June 5th. Somehow that amounted to a MTD precip anomaly of only +.16, with the highest single day total being .64. Raleigh is at +1.02, Fayetteville +1.04, Asheville +1.28, Charlotte +.86, Danville -.49, Wilmington +.31

Likely to be the first major hurricane to make landfall in Mexico in the month of June for either basin. Also an unusual track for the time of year with only handful of hurricanes to ever have made landfall along that stretch of coastline this early.

Sounds like Friday could be a decent severe day Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast Atlantic coast. Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon. Increasing midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. If wave timing and thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

This cell headed towards Madison is trouble

Entering the time of year when below average temps are very much welcome. Seems like a cool stretch is likely in about 10 days

Classic convergence. It's a good thing that LP has remained pretty weak

This year has really been marked by notable dry stretches

It's awfully quiet out there!