olafminesaw

Models are notorious for under doing moisture associated with robust ULLs. I think the Western ULL piece will over perform West of 85 and the coastal generally underperform

Already a dusting at GSO, bodes well as that frontogenesis gets cranking

https://x.com/jackendrickwx/status/2017357675755933951?s=20 Really cool, you can see the trough diving down and starting to tilt

I know the RAP sucks, but why not

I corrected the gradients between the zones

My forecast map (first time I've done one of these I think)

I think the hires NAM has stumbled upon a pretty realistic depiction of how this will play out. ULL max zone, coastal crush zone. Screw zone in between. Maybe cut precip totals by 25-50% overall and call it a day. Screw zone location TBD depending on timing, trough tilt etc.

The HRRR is really only good for taking radar trends as the event unfolds (under 8 hours) and creating a kind of future radar projection. And for thermal profiles. I wish they had never made it run past 18 hours

The Hires NAM looks great so far, lol.

They are doing damage control for it/when the forecast busts. I get the get blowback, and especially after last week's storm they are sensitive to their viewer's response if the forecast busts. But ultimately it's bad forecasting to pick the models with the lowest amounts and find justification for why it's going to be correct

Yeah I mean I would say the trend is meaningful and somewhere in the Piedmont is likely to get the dry slot. At the same time, the HRRR and 3km NAM solutions just don't quite pass the sniff test. Not sure they are handling the ULL/phase correctly. It's more concerning for the Triad. I think the Triangle gets the coastal/WAA banding and should hit 3"+ no problem

For sure. Better for the Triangle and points East. May dry slot the Triad

HRRR is running. Dry and a late start so far East of 77, but starting to crank by late morning