olafminesaw

GFS at 18z (6z run) vs actual. Handling temps well so far, just a little too aggressive with the cold front

Temps running about 3 degrees below forecast so far today. May help Tommorow if that trend can hold

You can see how dynamic lift cools the column on the GFS. A little suspect TBH, but not out of the question

Also colder (then 6z anyway) a bit of a double edged sword, which is why there isn't much upside with this one

Approximate cutoff between what will largely fall as rain vs mostly snow (assuming the NAM's temp profiles are correct) Within the snow zone, a coating to half an inch is possible with a small chance of more if banding develops.

850 temps at onset favor snow West of 85 and rain East. Doesn't push the cold air East until after most of the moisture has exited. Just something to watch Tommorow morning

This has a the makings of a big surprise for Tidewater VA

Approaching landfall as a Cat 5 Flizzard

The funny part is a band of rain is supposed to roll through here tomorrow

I think he could very well be right, if as usual cold air takes longer than expected to bleed over the mountains. However,I do feel we could overcome with decent rates and get a coating or so as far SE as RAH

I am an optimist at heart but I will believe above normal precip when I see it

Another tick north on the Euro

It helps that sun angle is still relatively low and ground temps should be fairly cold with how cold it's been.

Hres RGEM

Third wet non-accumulating snow of the year? At least we do that well