Lowball. Shift Alek's call up to Cary then you're fine.
But agree, too early to call amounts. There are still too many things that can go wrong on this one, almost as many things that can still improve.
In case anyone missed the 00z EPS. Have a feeling those purples will expand eastward as models start to pick up more lake enhancement signal. Think models underdoing cold sector QPF still. The Gulf is wide open.