These are all fine solutions. I consider myself very lucky to be in the game for a 6”+ event and the south central Iowa weenies can enjoy their moment of glory.
I’m hoping tomorrow we can get a bit more QPF out of this further East. Still have a whole day to sort that out until people start posting the HRRR and it’s Madison blockbuster early scenarios
The GEM continues to hang precip around the lake well into Tuesday. Clear trend for a longer duration event with a drier defo but equivalent QPF overall
Edit: eh, maybe 0.1-0.2” less
We’ll see. I’m riding my 6-12. Have faith that even in the event of a sheared solution, the lake will help us and we’ll have our first 6” event in 3 years. Maybe.
Ultimately no meaningful changes through 54 hours. If you’re in the defo band once the low starts moving East, it’s gonna rock. That would be DVN and LOT CWAs.
Edit: There does look like less QPF in the defo band, but more backside snows as evidenced by the changes in central Nebraska.
Distribution of members is bimodal and the mean lies at the low end of the 2nd mode and well below the median. I studied statistics and these are all very, very good things
Great analysis, thanks for this.
FWIW, looks like Kuchera maps have been hovering around 11-12:1 for most of the CWA, so seems reasonable and perhaps per your work above, upside from there.
I think warmer temps aloft and less lake enhancement on Monday will be compensated by the fact its mostly an overnight event. And just in time as Tuesday rolls around, low passes to our south, temps are colder and lake enhancement can begin