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mimillman

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Everything posted by mimillman

  1. mimillman
    These are all fine solutions. I consider myself very lucky to be in the game for a 6”+ event and the south central Iowa weenies can enjoy their moment of glory. I’m hoping tomorrow we can get a bit more QPF out of this further East. Still have a whole day to sort that out until people start posting the HRRR and it’s Madison blockbuster early scenarios
  2. mimillman
    I agree that’s the goal, but ultimately I think a watch is an appropriate product at this juncture.
  3. mimillman
    GEM has this Thursday lake band again associated with the system behind our main one.
  4. mimillman
    Radar doesn’t look bad. Wouldn’t be surprised to pick up an inch
  5. mimillman
    They can always issue a watch and replace it with an advisory, that’s the purpose of a watch vs a warning
  6. mimillman
    The GEM continues to hang precip around the lake well into Tuesday. Clear trend for a longer duration event with a drier defo but equivalent QPF overall Edit: eh, maybe 0.1-0.2” less
  7. mimillman
    This is the largest event of the season for the CWA and the largest event for the metro in 3 years. They will issue a watch
  8. mimillman
    Looks reasonable
  9. mimillman
    RGEM very pro Wednesday lake plume
  10. mimillman
    We’ll see. I’m riding my 6-12. Have faith that even in the event of a sheared solution, the lake will help us and we’ll have our first 6” event in 3 years. Maybe.
  11. mimillman
    Fair, but by that metric you’d have the same worry for south central Iowa, no?
  12. mimillman
    Idk but it’s what I got
  13. mimillman
    And a 12 hour break before a 1-2” refresher Wednesday evening. Love it
  14. mimillman
    southern LOT actually does better here than 18z
  15. mimillman
    End of the NAM run is very Euro-esque with snow continuing through most of the day Tuesday into Wednesday.
  16. mimillman
    Ultimately no meaningful changes through 54 hours. If you’re in the defo band once the low starts moving East, it’s gonna rock. That would be DVN and LOT CWAs. Edit: There does look like less QPF in the defo band, but more backside snows as evidenced by the changes in central Nebraska.
  17. mimillman
    Yes. The distribution is highly left skewed and is throwing off the mean. The mean here is not a fair representation, it’s underdone
  18. mimillman
    Distribution of members is bimodal and the mean lies at the low end of the 2nd mode and well below the median. I studied statistics and these are all very, very good things
  19. mimillman
    It gets shunted East at hour 45, phew. It’s stronger though. QPF is going to be juiced
  20. mimillman
    SLP is 2mb stronger and approximately 150 miles northwest. This is going to be a crusher for south central Iowa
  21. mimillman
    Great analysis, thanks for this. FWIW, looks like Kuchera maps have been hovering around 11-12:1 for most of the CWA, so seems reasonable and perhaps per your work above, upside from there.
  22. mimillman
    I think warmer temps aloft and less lake enhancement on Monday will be compensated by the fact its mostly an overnight event. And just in time as Tuesday rolls around, low passes to our south, temps are colder and lake enhancement can begin
  23. mimillman
    It’s still snowing over LOT
  24. mimillman
    If you’re in LOT or DVN you love the 18z euro. Hard to get much better than that. Widespread 8-14”, long duration event
  25. mimillman
    Thank the lord. It also doesn’t collapse QPF east as aggressively
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