mimillman

Ooof, heartbreak for the Delmarva peninsula

GFS...it’s drier but still fine

Less so than previous runs

Hmm yea you’re right

RGEM is north. This is turning into a north central Iowa special.

Solid LE for Hoosier

It looks like a different system entirely. Main defo makes it to Madison

NAM starts off terrible and then improves. SREF down below 6” at ORD but that’s largely due to clunkers with majority of members 6-9”

Lol Hoosier please

Needs to go

Euro is less gung ho on lake effect

RGEM quite aggressive with the Wednesday lake effect. It’s going to be snowing here for like 36 hours

Thankfully yes. The RGEM and GEM are alone on the SW to NE axis

GEFS

Was just going to say, the GFS is especially aggressive with the lake effect on Wednesday. All operational guidance has some form of lake effect signal now and just going to be a matter of honing in on exactly where it sets up, be it Lake IL, Cook, Lake IN, or Porter. I imagine where it is persistent you can add another couple inches to Tuesday storm total.

You mean the 5-8" vs. the 5-7"? Ok.

What if it misses to your south because of the 1045mb high in northern Nunavut province

Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 255 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 ...Winter Storm to Impact the Region Beginning Monday Afternoon... ILZ006-013-103>107-250500- /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0001.210125T2200Z-210126T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0001.210125T2200Z-210126T2300Z/ Lake IL-DuPage-Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook- Northern Will-Southern Will- Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, and Wilmington 255 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times, especially Monday evening and early overnight. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. Isolated higher amounts possible. Northeast winds could gust as high as 35 to 40 mph resulting in periods of very low visibility. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From late Monday afternoon through the day Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Hazardous conditions are likely to impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some power outages are possible due to the combined effects of the expected wetter nature of the snow and strong and gusty winds. Freezing rain, freezing drizzle, or sleet may mix in with the snow at times, mainly Monday evening for locations south of I-88. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. && $$

Ah yes, how could we forget about the 1045mb high 10,000 miles away

Iowa posters venturing into train wreck mode here. Might I suggest a nice cup of tea to calm the nerves, and some perspective.

Makes sense and sounds right given the trends. My initial call a couple days ago for 6-12" will hold, but highly likely to be on the lower end of that. NWS 6-9" in watch text is pretty spot on.

Growing confidence Lake and Cook counties will be QPF maxes in N IL

Fish

Really. Tell me more

In Cedar Rapids? Lowball.