michaelmantis

Just had about 10 minutes of what was a legit rain or freezing rain. Was pretty loud against the windows. Edit: Started up again about 15 minutes later. Going to be an icy mess when the temps drop tomorrow.

First pingers of the night. Measured 3.5 inches in a few places (not sure how accurate). Expecting to wake up to a nice crust/frosting of ice on top of the snow. On a happy note, I finally got snow for sledding with my daughter. Now it may just get too windy and cold! ;-)

This isn't dumping on the NWS, they were in a bad situation with last weeks storm with all the data showing it should have turned out differently. Even reading their AFD and public statements posted there are a lot of mentions of "things are not like last week" and "this is different" (not exact words but close). If it turns out that is a big impact storm that won't help things. The overall weather pattern is just crazy. We're almost approaching 1 year from -25 temps in the Chicago area that it just seems that there is so much variability that models struggle (since they make assumptions in many cases based on past events and what "is likely" to occur). Lots more 10% probability outcomes seem to be occurring (i.e. 3 "500 year floods" in 10 years, etc etc etc)

Can someone help me figure this forecast out??? Rain before 3 AM with a low of 24? Or is this just NWS point-and-click forecasting lack of specifics??? Never did get my 3 inches of snow to go sledding with my daughter. Damn well better happen this weekend!!! ;-) https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=179&y=80&site=lot&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=178&map_y=80 Thursday Night A slight chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Friday Snow before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Friday Night Rain before 3am, then rain and snow likely between 3am and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 24.

Best snow of this whole “storm”... Actual flakes of some decent size... Ground finally white...

This thread will either turn into pictures of 20 foot waves on Lake Michigan or people’s brown backyards.

Any issues with the freezing of all this water tomorrow? Haven't seen headlines on that (or I just missed them).

First bit of pouring rain here... Crazy... The whole idea of 1-2 inches of rain, then 3-6 inches of snow, then it all freezing just amazes me...

I'm looking at the stationary front placement right now over N IL and it looks to go from Waukegan straight to Peoria (it essentially crosses right over me in Elgin, IL). Temp 37 now. Knife's edge... But assuming temps will stay the same or even warm a bit as the first round come in...

This storm (coming together over Kansas) is looking mighty pretty on radar. Wish there was more blue than green but my goodness I think *any* of us would appreciate this storm any other time of year if it wasn't snowstorm season!!! ;-)

I'm wondering about the freezing aspects once the precip dies down. Looks like Sunday will be sunny and upper 20's in the Chicago area so that may help with melting but for most places in the Midwest Saturday from around 3 PM through Sunday morning just seems awful. You either are getting cold rain, sleet, or snow followed by all that slop potentially freezing as temps drop to the teens overnight Saturday. Makes me come back to thoughts I always have about the overly broad nature of the Winter Warning classifications. I'd argue that this storm is a bigger threat to life/travel than a solid 12 inch snowstorm with temps at 20. But the "headlines" of not a lot of snow just seem to make it not as critical of an event.

And there you have it... LOT just made some changes...

I said all I wanted from this storm was 2-3 inches. Of what, I don't care as long as it is frozen. There is going to be some area within a 25-50 miles from the snow that is not expecting the ice and it is not going to be good.

I'm still sticking with my wish (and a prayer) for 2-3 inches just go to sledding with my daughter. Regardless of the precip type, looks like a huddle in the house for 36 hour scenario...

Damn, we're good... ;-)

Ask and ye shall receive...

These two maps tell the whole story for me. Either has me in the 25-28 temp range with the GFS or hugging 32 degrees with the NAM. (Northern Kane County in IL).

I'm in between Dekalb and Cary so right on the razors edge! I'll start getting more interested in this later today.

Love me some Skilling analysis...

This is purely a "marketing" or "public relations" question, not a criticism of the NWS by any means. Does publishing an image like the one below (from NWS Chicago a few minutes ago) provide clarity to the general public? Those of us here are following models, each track shift, freezing lines, and listening to the voices from our voodoo dolls that whisper the weather future, etc. But does the average person get the intended message out of the image below? Also, what is the key for the two different colors? I get the dark blue is the main risk area, but what is that? 50% chance? This seems to me like some type of NWS model output that is so simplified that is loses meaning. Once again, mean absolutely no disrespect. Just curious.

Noticed a new Meteorologist (or new to me) on NBC 5 in Chicago during the 11 am newscast did a good job today of saying "anything was possible" but good chance of some type of significant precip in the Chicago area this weekend. Waiting for the media hype machine to pick up on this tonight. I just want 3 inches of snow to go sledding with my daughter. That is it. Simple ask of the weather gods.