michaelmantis

Now if just the Snow Gods would have given us a heads up 2 months ago this was going to happen it would have saved a lot of complaining (and posts here) ;-) I'm out of the Lake Snow part of this but great to see the scope of this and hope people take this seriously on the roads.

Calling 4 inches with anything more being a pleasant surprise. The distance from the west border of Kane County to the lake is ~40 miles and from my house to where the yellow starts in NIL is only around 10 miles. The snowmaps SE (essentially all of Indiana) are a beauty as well.

Looks like returns are starting in the Peoria/Galesburg area and if I recall isn't the precip field supposed to start expand/filling in around the eastern 1/2 of N IL later today? Checked through some of the 3AM posts earlier in the thread and how is the current precip performing to the modeling? With this lake effect and sharp cutoff in NIL as you move west, a track change of a bit will have some big population impacts. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, all the pink on the NWS Watch/Warning national map is a beauty... I want to frame it...

Looking forward to your posts today!!! ;-)

From where I'm at a bit out West (and a bit higher up in elevation than the O'Hare and downtown area) I can see the lake effect clouds clearly (while the sun shines here). Hope you guys in the city get the big daddy expected. I'll watch from the cheap seats out West and hope a favorable wind drops an inch or two of added fluff!

Going to be a sharp cutoff in Kane County is that verifies! Seems like Cook County is a lock for this, collar counties look to be a nowcast.

I'l be happy with 4ish for those of us out in the eastern part of Kane county. I have family near O'Hare that has no idea they potentially are going to be buried if the current forecast holds true.

How does the storm track impact the lake effect in NE IL? Is it a case of further west of the track the further the lake effect or would that just mean the same general amount of lake effect but greater totals from the "system snow"

The national warning map is a sight to see... The cutoff is just amazing too...

Trying to convince my parents they are either going to get 2-3 inches or 8-12 depending on how the LE shapes up. It’s a fun conversation. ;-)

Thanks for the added detail. Can you explain the science behind what determines how far the Lake effect snow travels? It is the case where if a single band stays in one area it can “push farther” inland? I like the AFD overall message that Monday night into Tuesday is going to be messy in Cook County. That seems like a reasonable and justified message and not getting pinned down into what essentially is a nowcast for LE band setup. Glad NWS divided up Cook into a few warning areas. Absolutely helps in cases like this.

Bit too far west in N IL for this but always interesting to see things come together on the East side of Lake Michigan for lake effect, doesn't happen often. Interested to see the snow maps once this thing is over, going to be some killer cutoffs.

2/14 will be the one year anniversary of my divorce... I had to laugh when the court assigned that date... A snowstorm would be a nice distraction...

Been snowing cotton balls for last 90 minutes. Slow pretty flakes. No wind, melting issues, just pretty snow. Looks like I'm in the sweet spot (about 10 miles north of I-88)

Debating if I’m going to head out later today for a drive to my parents. Roads snow covered (salt not working at these temps) and just thinking that even 1-2 of blowing fluff at these temps can cause problems.

Same... 15 minutes roads covered and literal cotton balls falling...

Just some mood flakes from the Lake where I am (30 miles from Lake Michigan in N IL) and my parents who live near O'Hare said its snowing pretty good there. In all, most of the forecast turned out to be pretty on the mark. Also looks like the chance of a big rainer for N IL later this week has gone down a bit (know that is another thread!). After the snow that is on the ground now, a rainstorm would not be good.

Can we bottle this excitement, put it in a time capsule, and then open it during next snow drought the Lakes/OV region that will occur next winter? Starting to rip by me and expecting/hoping 2-3 hours of nice accumulation before bedtime.

I'm 15 miles NE of that location (88-355) and it does look like some of the heavier returns are going to go south a bit. My take is the big break in the totals (totally forecasted) is going to be the IL-47 to IL-39 line. With the way the radar looks, there is just no way I see getting less than 6 inches.

That just passed over me! ;-) The radar to the SW just looks so so so pretty...

In a bit of a dry spot about 30 miles west of you. Most of the heavy stuff was targeted around 6 PM in NE IL anyway so hopefully this picks up in the next hour or two...

We don’t need an app when we have the guy writing the AFD! ;-) Great write up last night. Get some sleep and thanks for all the updates.

Is the “NWS only provides data and not public weather products” policy still is effect? I thought I read somewhere there is an actual law or statute saying the NWS can’t do things like make their own mobile app even!

This seems like the models are in agreement unlike the last storm in the Midwest (Madison getting 6 inches!?!?!) I could see a scenario where the tracks are wrong but the models all changing in a similar way or is that too simplistic of a view? Not sure what I'd do with 2 storms in a week. But hey, the kids still got a "snow day" even with remote learning!

So I shouldn't plan on 18 inches in NE IL this weekend? Ha-Ha... Someone needs to combine this forum with Draftkings and we can use betting markets to try to predict model reliability. Like Nate Silver's 538... Or better yet, we could call it the 540line or something... ;-)