michaelmantis

And the towel is thrown in for most of NE IL. Amazed as the number of schools that canceled today. I'll believe the weekend storm when I see flakes. Was hoping to have a good week or two of storms and missed these threads!

LOT going with WWA #### .UPDATE... Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Quick update on tomorrow`s snow... After getting a look at 12z guidance, the trend of the sfc low being slower to deepen, thus farther east of the area continues. The result is lower QPF versus yesterday morning`s (and prior) guidance, so amounts that had looked to be borderline high end advisory/low end warning, are now looking more solidly advisory. As far as impacts go, snow, possibly heavy at times, is expected during the day tomorrow, likely causing significant travel issues. Ultimately, there really isn`t much difference between a 3-6" snow vs a 4-8" snow, so the key messages for the event remain largely unchanged. Still looks like southeastern CWA could see lower snowfall totals, but snow could mix with/change to some freezing rain or freezing drizzle Wed evening. So will be upgrading the winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory for our entire CWA.

My first time posting over here (hang out at the Great Lakes forum!) Was going to head to DC for Carter's memorial services with a flight out of Chicago on Monday morning. Looking like that may not be the best idea? This storm being tracked here is goign to hit the middle part of IL (I'm in Chicago) and looking like 3ish for DC seems like a safe bet right? Debating if I should cancel my trip.

The Tuesday track shows this over water again but with so much time over land my hope is this thing turns into just a rainmaker going forward. Amazing that this is moving so slow. I just don't see how this thing gets into the Gulf Tuesday AM and is by Florida by Wednesday PM? Is the front/trough coming down from the US just going to pick this thing up and throw it toward Florida.

Flying into Florida (Orlando) a week from Friday in the afternoon. From looking at the model runs this looks like a Wednesday or Thursday impact? Wasn’t expecting to be thinking about a hurricane around Thanksgiving week. if I’m understanding things right, the entire path once it gets away from the Yucatán is dependent on the troughs coming out of the Central, United States, correct?

The morning snow was legit. And it was heavy as hell. If *exactly* what fell was forecast in advance, as a weather nerd I would have loved it. The potential was there for a bunch more but it just didn't. Models are models and the whole downside of all the ensemble models is that someone can find just the scenario that works for them. As I type this (12:20 AM on Saturday) we're getting another 2-3 inches of back side snow that is actual snow, not slush or a mix. Will be a nice cover when the deep freeze hits. Wind picking up and it is going to be a shitty week of insanely cold weather. All in all, a great storm and a forecast that was pretty darn good given the warm air impacts all around the NE IL and N IN areas.

Better falling off the trees now that freezing and blowing around later.

(For now) has transitioned back to all flakes. 5 miles east of me it's drizzle/sleet. Slush everywhere.

Looking at the trees dripping a bit, just realized this stuff is going to turn into a solid ice cube in the next 24 hours. If it's not shoveled or moved it is staying there a while.

That hole between Elgin and Joliet looks to be trying to fill in. Wonder if I can get greedy and wish for that band between Rockford and Galesburg to park over my area for a while.

Exactly. When we get a decent storm (especially one with some great rates) we all should be grateful and save bitterness for the next storm. ;-) Wonder what the water content of this snow was. Could have easily fluffed up double I'd bet...

Looks like the 9:31 AM updates mention 3-5 additional inches in the North parts of IL rest of the storm? That band over the Mississippi River looks nice if it can not miss north! Your office running on coffee and Redbull?

Just got done shoveling. Around 8 inches came down in 5 hours (2 AM to 7 AM). As has been posted, looks like the big snow is over for much of NE IL. So close to something bigger but I'm very happy with what fell so far. Getting a few more inches would be the icing on the cake.

After 45ish minutes of light returns and some pingers on the windows, we're back to fat fat FATTIES falling from the sky. Not too heavy, but cotton balls are coming back down. Going to shovel just to try to not have to do it all at once later today.

Sounds like a little sleet hitting the windows as this new areas of precip blossoms north of Peoria to Rockford. Looks like I may be in decent pivot point position.

That first wave of snow was AMAZING. Looks like precip filling back in around the northern half of Illinois. At least 4-5 inches already.

WSW issued for McHenry-Kane-DuPage counties in IL. Note about mix up to I-88.

Go back to your wife and tell her you were wrong... It was man yards! ;-) Not getting too excited yet but starting to see the cancelations for schools, daycare, etc hitting my email...

Agree with you 100%. Have some family flying out this weekend from O'Hare and 4 inches of snow overnight Friday with wind AM Saturday is just as bad as 6 inches. So the storm gets to a point where it is bad no matter what. The mixing and flake quality is key I think. Get a few hours of rippage and toss in a cooler airmass behind (different from last storm) and some wind and you'll have more impacts even if we get the same amount around here as the Monday storm.

Sucks all around. ;-) Either way, I'm betting school canceled tomorrow for my kid and whatever falls will turn to solid ice over the weekend. That I'm assured of. Going to catch up on this later today as it becomes more real.

My location on the NAM map you posted. Talk about the teeny-tinesy screw hole imaginable... I'm going to try to forget about this thing until the afternoon AFDs.

At this rate going from 10 inches to 6 inches (or something "more reasonable" if the track does move a bit E) isn't a loss for me given the past few years. The "big one" will be a surprise I'm sure! ;-) If the wind starts up Friday night, just a few inches will be bad. Eurythmics posted often, but for us this is a better song... You Can't Always Get What You Want - The Rolling Stones

3ish inches at the end. It all compacted down so much can't really tell. But there was a few hour period where the cotton ball flakes added to at least 3 inches on their own (before compacting down).

I'm 5 miles south of where you will be. The last storm had the front end precip a sloppy mess (my backyard was full of slush) but the backside was *nice*. Best flakes I've seen in years. Parts of the Fox Valley (Aurora for example, 15 miles south of Algonquin) are notoriously a few degrees cooler in the dead of winter. We are far enough away from the Lake that usually lake warming doesn't hurt us that much. But we have got a few Lake bands when all the stars align. Provided the low doesn't make some crazy big jog north, the lake "warming" will be less of an impact out here.

The AFD update was great. Nice putting the "Forecast Uncertainty" in there too... As to the timing... You guys were spot on with the N IL impacts of the last storm between 12-4 PM. My daughter's school canceled classes and at 11 am it looked like things were not that bad on the roads. But from 11-3 it just RIPPED here (Northern Kane County in Elgin - 3 miles south of I-90) and the roads were awful. Buses (especially in my rural area) would have had a hell of a time. Looks like the hourly forecast for the next storm has the snow really starting around me by 8 AM Friday and going through the whole day. In your 100% "not representative of the US Government" opinion ;-) it is looking like the second snow day this week for my daughter? I've said it before, your posting here is so awesome. Thanks for taking the time.