Hoth

Lol, 18% move on virtually no news. Think we've buried the Efficient Markets Hypothesis deeply enough yet?

Without humanity, this thought doesn't exist...or perhaps even a consciousness to perceive the existence of the greater universe....oooooooooh.

Can't freaking wait for the next few days. The nape is nude.

It's hard to imagine something moving 47,000 mph. That's twice as fast as the space shuttle reentry velocity. The amount of energy even a small object carries at that speed is crazy. I remember reading about a cosmic particle that entered the atmosphere and was detected some years ago moving at 99.9999999% the speed of light. They said the amount of energy it carried would like like getting hit by a fastball from a major league pitcher.

I'd value their crab chip division alone at a 2.1 billion, mainly owing to my personal consumption. It's a big addressable market lol.

Bubbles are their own catalyst and EVs generally appear to be about as bubbly as anything other than crypto in this market. Tesla is still a good $2500 on a pre-split basis, this for a business that was already very expensive at $250. It speaks to the irrationality of the times that a car company that has never put up a year of positive cash flow, has a CEO who can't deny committing securities fraud, can only show a profit by accounting gimmickry, and is hemorrhaging market share to established makers, trades at a market cap bigger than the next eight biggest auto makers combined. Whether favored by government policies or not, at some point people will remember that car manufacturing, solar panels, and green tech in general, are low margin, ruthlessly competitive businesses.

Which was expected to be in my hood. Instead we sucked exhaust and got 2" of sand while LI directly south of me was buried. That month was a brutal roller coaster. Poor Ryan got raked over the coals for the March 22 bust on social media.

Yeah, if I'd partaken of that 20" fluffer I'd probably feel differently. Instead I wound up sitting in subsidence and the three inches I got melted before the storm even ended. The wind with that first storm was impressive though, especially out east.

I miss 3/7/18. The rest of the month featured an impressive rain storm and two very painful busts I can do without.

Can't stop it, but count me out. I was amazed by the tree damage caused by a middling tropical storm last summer. Cat 2+ would be a total nightmare.

Powell is more acutely sensitive to markets than any of his predecessors. He will say and do whatever he has to to keep them afloat at this point.

Never is a long time. Did you see the ISM reading yesterday? Last time it was that high oil was $140 a barrel.

You and I are generally on the same page, although as I've mentioned before I think Cathy is a solid candidate to blow up her funds at some point. She buys a lot of illiquid garbage, often taking 10% percent of the outstanding float. In doing so she drives up the price and her own returns. But she's supposed to offer daily liquidity, which she recently satisfied by selling her more stable liquid positions like Apple and doubling down on the illiquid stuff. I just think that could be a recipe for trouble if we have a period of sustained selling pressure, especially since there are now funds that mirror her portfolio almost exactly.

Thanks for posting these stats. You mentioned the nominal return for the '70s. Did the study include the real return, because I suspect that number isn't great. The early '80s to the present has been one long fixed income bull market, starting at the end of Volker's intense hiking campaign. As the cost of capital dropped, corporate bond issuance rose, magnifying leverage and returns on equity, so I suppose it shouldn't surprise us that stocks have generally outperformed in recent decades. There have certainly been hiccups, the S&L crisis, LTCM, the tech bubble. GFC was probably the first real shot across the bow regarding the dangers of keeping rates too low. I still contend that the central banks have overdone it since then, and are secretly panicked at the monster they've created. This may explain the ever-increasing frequency and size of direct intervention and incessant jawboning. With rates artificially jammed down, they have encouraged an unprecedented debt binge. The hurdle rates for investment is so low that mis-allocation of capital is rife. We see so many unprofitable businesses trading at outrageous valuations because of the expectation that they can just borrow to fund themselves indefinitely. We even see some businesses without revenue trading at multi-billion dollar valuations. The sheer volume of debt has made the market increasingly sensitive to relatively small fluctuations in rates. A sustained rise, say precipitated by a real and lasting inflationary spike, could make for some real capital destruction. I don't envy those tasked with stewarding client capital in the coming decade. It's going to be a challenging environment.

Some very impressive gusts overnight. Did not get much sleep. Surprised SCT didn't gust higher; haven't felt the house shudder like that in a while.

Getting a few house shakers now. Impressive!

Jesus, George generated more weenies today than the Ball Park factory.

Bad for winter enthusiasts, but great for opening up the summer house and cleaning all the leaves and sticks that probably fell this winter.

I'll go solid A- on the winter. First, it shines especially bright against the backdrop of a 9" winter last year. I'm right around 50", which is a bit shy of double our average. We had a coating in October and the biggest December event in a long time, even though it was washed away a week later. January sucked, but at least it wasn't also cold. February was awesome, a full month of coverage. If we can pull one last gasp warning event, there's room to bump the grade up a little more.

What are the odds Cathy blows up ARK in a larger drop? Seems she sells her stable liquid assets like AAPL and AMZN to meet redemption requests and holds all the overvalued small cap low float stuff. Risky business in a vehicle that is supposed to provide daily liquidity.

Maybe a small earth or frost quake?

Looks like the squeeze in Gamestop and, to a lesser extent, AMC has started again. Interesting times. Powell managed to jawbone stocks up and bond yields down a bit. We'll see how long that lasts.

Pretty spectacular out there. Pack is holding strong, but rills and rivulets are running steadily down driveways and streets. The albedo of my nape has peaked and now the transitional season into more red and brown hues begins.

You can start stacking the diamond dust if it's that cold.