Hoth

Late October really delivers the last decade.

Tucky tucky.

This thing is already looking pretty sweet on satellite. Bomb it out!

This whole thing has a vaguely Henri-ish vibe, just shifted southeast. The inverted trough look through NY and SNE, the retrograde. Feels like this may pack more of a punch though.

Yes, DC getting its first inch of snow before I do would be cause for deep deep concern.

God, my kingdom for an evolution like the 6z NAM in January with a fresh cold high in Quebec.

So more rain than Ida potentially, and more wind as well. Got it.

That's a stupid amount of rain. I will say that I like that the pattern is getting stormier as we get nearer to winter.

I'm short the bubbly unprofitable stuff trading at large multiples of revenue as rates may continue to run a bit more. A deflationary shock is probably coming at some point in the next year. Whether that is Fed precipitated or an exogenous event is anyone's guess. Inflationary pressures are starting to erode margins in the U.S., the sugar high from all the intervention is wearing off, and the economic situation in China is probably worse than we know, given the power issues and growing number of RE developer defaults and yields on Chinese bonds generally. Meanwhile the markets continue to be priced for absolute perfection. Something's gotta give.

We've had issues sourcing replacement batteries for the blower backpacks at work. Seems to be yet another supply chain bottleneck. They're really going to have to reconsider this whole "just in time" inventory approach in light of all the problems this year.

Can I propose the NWS institute a falling acorn advisory? Jesus those things sting. A couple rung my bell during my run today.

Keep it coming!

Thanksgiving that year was in the teens and twenties. Obscenely cold.

Sounds like my typical Christmas forecast.

Climo going downhill in a hurry from here, thank God. Enough heat and humidity. I'm hoping we can squeeze a few flakes right down to the coastal plain by month end.

Sammy's really got that high-end hawtness now. I guessing solid mid-grade cat four on the next update.

Sam starting to look kinda hawt. Eye cleared out quick this afternoon. Strong candidate to fish, but Ray being in Africa increases our odds of a '38 repeat enormously.

For wave lovers in Acadia, it probably was.

Interesting look on the Euro at the end of the run. As George Costanza would say, "I think it moved!"

We were having a discussion some weeks back about why we don't bury all our electric lines. I just happened across this well done video illustrating in great detail some of the challenges facing underground transmission and repairs. Well worth a watch. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-wQnWUhX5Y

Haggis is actually surprisingly good. It's quite rich, but if you don't think about what exactly you're putting in your mouth, it's tasty.

If you go to Scotland, be sure to make a stop in Skye. Cuillin hills area was one of the most beautiful spot I've been to.

Possible, but a global financial crisis wouldn't be my central thesis. We don't know what the extent of contagion from Evergrande will be. Junk bond yields suggest that it is ongoing among other Chinese developers and financial concerns. Who knows what else lurks off balance sheet? I'd bet there's a lot of malfeasance there. My guess is this will get messier than the folks who expect a quick government takeover think, but eventually the economic gravity of popping the biggest bubble in the world will require drastic intervention and a big devaluation of the yuan, which would be pretty negative for risk assets globally. It doesn't help that several asset classes are priced for perfection, even with the recent selloff. You could have a drop in asset prices disproportionate to the depth of contraction. Frankly, I think it would be healthy. Too many zombies and scams out there operating with impunity. Let's let the tide go out a bit.

Seriously. The perspective is tricky in that picture because I shot it from the top of the stairs entering my apartment, but the drift at the bottom was a good six or seven feet tall and probably ten feet wide. And that was what was left after the backhoes had come down and cleared to widen the street a few times.

2/15/15. It was incredible.